Over the past decade, random forest models have become widely used as a robust method for high-dimensional data regression tasks. In part, the popularity of these models arises from the fact that they require little hyperparameter tuning and are not very susceptible to overfitting. Random forest regression models are comprised of an ensemble of decision trees that independently predict the value of a (continuous) dependent variable; predictions from each of the trees are ultimately averaged to yield an overall predicted value from the forest. Using a suite of representative real-world datasets, we find a systematic bias in predictions from random forest models. We find that this bias is recapitulated in simple synthetic datasets, regardless of whether or not they include irreducible error (noise) in the data, but that models employing boosting do not exhibit this bias. Here we demonstrate the basis for this problem, and we use the training data to define a numerical transformation that fully corrects it. Application of this transformation yields improved predictions in every one of the real-world and synthetic datasets evaluated in our study.

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We introduce AutoGluon-Tabular, an open-source AutoML framework that requires only a single line of Python to train highly accurate machine learning models on an unprocessed tabular dataset such as a CSV file. Unlike existing AutoML frameworks that primarily focus on model/hyperparameter selection, AutoGluon-Tabular succeeds by ensembling multiple models and stacking them in multiple layers. Experiments reveal that our multi-layer combination of many models offers better use of allocated training time than seeking out the best. A second contribution is an extensive evaluation of public and commercial AutoML platforms including TPOT, H2O, AutoWEKA, auto-sklearn, AutoGluon, and Google AutoML Tables. Tests on a suite of 50 classification and regression tasks from Kaggle and the OpenML AutoML Benchmark reveal that AutoGluon is faster, more robust, and much more accurate. We find that AutoGluon often even outperforms the best-in-hindsight combination of all of its competitors. In two popular Kaggle competitions, AutoGluon beat 99% of the participating data scientists after merely 4h of training on the raw data.

The default variable-importance measure in random Forests, Gini importance, has been shown to suffer from the bias of the underlying Gini-gain splitting criterion. While the alternative permutation importance is generally accepted as a reliable measure of variable importance, it is also computationally demanding and suffers from other shortcomings. We propose a simple solution to the misleading/untrustworthy Gini importance which can be viewed as an overfitting problem: we compute the loss reduction on the out-of-bag instead of the in-bag training samples.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

Have you ever asked yourself a series of questions in order to help make a final decision on something? Maybe it was a simple decision like what you wanted to eat for dinner. You might have asked yourself if you wanted to cook or pick food up or get delivery. If you decided to cook, then you would have needed to figure out what type of cuisine you were in the mood for. And lastly, you probably needed to figure out if you had all of the ingredients in your fridge or needed to make a run to the store.

When people buy products online, they primarily base their decisions on the recommendations of others given in online reviews. The current work analyzed these online reviews by sentiment analysis and used the extracted sentiments as features to predict the product ratings by several machine learning algorithms. These predictions were disentangled by various meth-ods of explainable AI (XAI) to understand whether the model showed any bias during prediction. Study 1 benchmarked these algorithms (knn, support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, XGBoost) and identified random forests and XGBoost as best algorithms for predicting the product ratings. In Study 2, the analysis of global feature importance identified the sentiment joy and the emotional valence negative as most predictive features. Two XAI visualization methods, local feature attributions and partial dependency plots, revealed several incorrect prediction mechanisms on the instance-level. Performing the benchmarking as classification, Study 3 identified a high no-information rate of 64.4% that indicated high class imbalance as underlying reason for the identified problems. In conclusion, good performance by machine learning algorithms must be taken with caution because the dataset, as encountered in this work, could be biased towards certain predictions. This work demonstrates how XAI methods reveal such prediction bias.

Secure online transaction is an essential task for e-commerce platforms. Alipay, one of the world's leading cashless payment platform, provides the payment service to both merchants and individual customers. The fraud detection models are built to protect the customers, but stronger demands are raised by the new scenes, which are lacking in training data and labels. The proposed model makes a difference by utilizing the data under similar old scenes and the data under a new scene is treated as the target domain to be promoted. Inspired by this real case in Alipay, we view the problem as a transfer learning problem and design a set of revise strategies to transfer the source domain models to the target domain under the framework of gradient boosting tree models. This work provides an option for the cold-starting and data-sharing problems.

Normalizing flows (NF) are a powerful framework for approximating posteriors. By mapping a simple base density through invertible transformations, flows provide an exact method of density evaluation and sampling. The trend in normalizing flow literature has been to devise deeper, more complex transformations to achieve greater flexibility. We propose an alternative: Gradient Boosted Flows (GBF) model a variational posterior by successively adding new NF components by gradient boosting so that each new NF component is fit to the residuals of the previously trained components. The GBF formulation results in a variational posterior that is a mixture model, whose flexibility increases as more components are added. Moreover, GBFs offer a wider, not deeper, approach that can be incorporated to improve the results of many existing NFs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for density estimation and, by coupling GBF with a variational autoencoder, generative modeling of images.

Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems. To investigate mixing dynamics over time under different scenarios, a high-fidelity, finite-element-based numerical model is built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations are performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast, and molecular diffusion. Outputs comprise concentration profiles of the reactants and products. The inputs and outputs of these simulations are concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) emulators to approximate system behavior. The 20 ML emulators based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptron (MLP), are compared to assess these models. The ML emulators are specifically trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay, and degree of mixing. Linear classifiers and regressors fail to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP accurately classify the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predict the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators are $\approx10^5$ times faster than the high-fidelity numerical simulations. Speed and accuracy of the ensemble and MLP models facilitate uncertainty quantification, which usually requires 1,000s of model run, to estimate the uncertainty bounds on the QoIs.