While $\ell_2$ regularization is widely used in training gradient boosted trees, popular individualized feature attribution methods for trees such as Saabas and TreeSHAP overlook the training procedure. We propose Prediction Decomposition Attribution (PreDecomp), a novel individualized feature attribution for gradient boosted trees when they are trained with $\ell_2$ regularization. Theoretical analysis shows that the inner product between PreDecomp and labels on in-sample data is essentially the total gain of a tree, and that it can faithfully recover additive models in the population case when features are independent. Inspired by the connection between PreDecomp and total gain, we also propose TreeInner, a family of debiased global feature attributions defined in terms of the inner product between any individualized feature attribution and labels on out-sample data for each tree. Numerical experiments on a simulated dataset and a genomic ChIP dataset show that TreeInner has state-of-the-art feature selection performance. Code reproducing experiments is available at https://github.com/nalzok/TreeInner .

Increasingly, malwares are becoming complex and they are spreading on networks targeting different infrastructures and personal-end devices to collect, modify, and destroy victim information. Malware behaviors are polymorphic, metamorphic, persistent, able to hide to bypass detectors and adapt to new environments, and even leverage machine learning techniques to better damage targets. Thus, it makes them difficult to analyze and detect with traditional endpoint detection and response, intrusion detection and prevention systems. To defend against malwares, recent work has proposed different techniques based on signatures and machine learning. In this paper, we propose to use an algebraic topological approach called topological-based data analysis (TDA) to efficiently analyze and detect complex malware patterns. Next, we compare the different TDA techniques (i.e., persistence homology, tomato, TDA Mapper) and existing techniques (i.e., PCA, UMAP, t-SNE) using different classifiers including random forest, decision tree, xgboost, and lightgbm. We also propose some recommendations to deploy the best-identified models for malware detection at scale. Results show that TDA Mapper (combined with PCA) is better for clustering and for identifying hidden relationships between malware clusters compared to PCA. Persistent diagrams are better to identify overlapping malware clusters with low execution time compared to UMAP and t-SNE. For malware detection, malware analysts can use Random Forest and Decision Tree with t-SNE and Persistent Diagram to achieve better performance and robustness on noised data.

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where transparency is required, and the trust associated with their predictions may be questioned. To this end, we propose a two stage probabilistic forecasting framework able to generate highly accurate, reliable, and sharp forecasts yet offering full transparency on both the point forecasts and the prediction intervals (PIs). In the first stage, we exploit natural gradient boosting (NGBoost) for yielding probabilistic forecasts, while in the second stage, we calculate the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values in order to fully comprehend why a prediction was made. To highlight the performance and the applicability of the proposed framework, real data from two PV parks located in Southern Germany are employed. Comparative results with two state-of-the-art algorithms, namely Gaussian process and lower upper bound estimation, manifest a significant increase in the point forecast accuracy and in the overall probabilistic performance. Most importantly, a detailed analysis of the model's complex nonlinear relationships and interaction effects between the various features is presented. This allows interpreting the model, identifying some learned physical properties, explaining individual predictions, reducing the computational requirements for the training without jeopardizing the model accuracy, detecting possible bugs, and gaining trust in the model. Finally, we conclude that the model was able to develop complex nonlinear relationships which follow known physical properties as well as human logic and intuition.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. Gradient boosting is one of the best-performing and widely-used boosting algorithms in machine learning. Many concepts are associated with gradient boosting algorithms, from which many questions can be asked. This article will cover the most useful and important interview questions related to gradient boosting in data science with the core intuition and the mathematical formulations behind them. Let us start solving and understanding the questions on gradient boosting one by one.

We discuss an application of Generalized Random Forests (GRF) proposed by Athey et al.(2019) to quantile regression for time series data. We extracted the theoretical results of the GRF consistency for i.i.d. data to time series data. In particular, in the main theorem, based only on the general assumptions for time series data in Davis and Nielsen (2020), and trees in Athey et al.(2019), we show that the tsQRF (time series Quantile Regression Forests) estimator is consistent. Davis and Nielsen (2020) also discussed the estimation problem using Random Forests (RF) for time series data, but the construction procedure of the RF treated by the GRF is essentially different, and different ideas are used throughout the theoretical proof. In addition, a simulation and real data analysis were conducted.In the simulation, the accuracy of the conditional quantile estimation was evaluated under time series models. In the real data using the Nikkei Stock Average, our estimator is demonstrated to be more sensitive than the others in terms of volatility, thus preventing underestimation of risk.

Under climate change, the increasing frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of drought events lead to higher socio-economic costs. However, the relationships between the hydro-meteorological indicators and drought impacts are not identified well yet because of the complexity and data scarcity. In this paper, we proposed a framework based on the extreme gradient model (XGBoost) for Texas to predict multi-category drought impacts and connected a typical drought indicator, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), to the text-based impacts from the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). The preliminary results of this study showed an outstanding performance of the well-trained models to assess drought impacts on agriculture, fire, society & public health, plants & wildlife, as well as relief, response & restrictions in Texas. It also provided a possibility to appraise drought impacts using hydro-meteorological indicators with the proposed framework in the United States, which could help drought risk management by giving additional information and improving the updating frequency of drought impacts. Our interpretation results using the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) interpretability technique revealed that the rules guiding the predictions of XGBoost comply with domain expertise knowledge around the role that SPI indicators play around drought impacts.

TREs are widely, and increasingly used to support statistical analysis of sensitive data across a range of sectors (e.g., health, police, tax and education) as they enable secure and transparent research whilst protecting data confidentiality. There is an increasing desire from academia and industry to train AI models in TREs. The field of AI is developing quickly with applications including spotting human errors, streamlining processes, task automation and decision support. These complex AI models require more information to describe and reproduce, increasing the possibility that sensitive personal data can be inferred from such descriptions. TREs do not have mature processes and controls against these risks. This is a complex topic, and it is unreasonable to expect all TREs to be aware of all risks or that TRE researchers have addressed these risks in AI-specific training. GRAIMATTER has developed a draft set of usable recommendations for TREs to guard against the additional risks when disclosing trained AI models from TREs. The development of these recommendations has been funded by the GRAIMATTER UKRI DARE UK sprint research project. This version of our recommendations was published at the end of the project in September 2022. During the course of the project, we have identified many areas for future investigations to expand and test these recommendations in practice. Therefore, we expect that this document will evolve over time.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. AdaBoost is a boosting algorithm used in data science. It is one of the best-performing and widely used algorithms. In data science interviews, there are lots of questions asked related to the AdaBoost algorithm, whether a working mechanism, the mathematics behind it, or the graphical intuition. In this article, we will cover some of the most asked questions related to the AdaBoost algorithm in data science Interviews.

Crime is an unlawful act that carries legal repercussions. Bangladesh has a high crime rate due to poverty, population growth, and many other socio-economic issues. For law enforcement agencies, understanding crime patterns is essential for preventing future criminal activity. For this purpose, these agencies need structured crime database. This paper introduces a novel crime dataset that contains temporal, geographic, weather, and demographic data about 6574 crime incidents of Bangladesh. We manually gather crime news articles of a seven year time span from a daily newspaper archive. We extract basic features from these raw text. Using these basic features, we then consult standard service-providers of geo-location and weather data in order to garner these information related to the collected crime incidents. Furthermore, we collect demographic information from Bangladesh National Census data. All these information are combined that results in a standard machine learning dataset. Together, 36 features are engineered for the crime prediction task. Five supervised machine learning classification algorithms are then evaluated on this newly built dataset and satisfactory results are achieved. We also conduct exploratory analysis on various aspects the dataset. This dataset is expected to serve as the foundation for crime incidence prediction systems for Bangladesh and other countries. The findings of this study will help law enforcement agencies to forecast and contain crime as well as to ensure optimal resource allocation for crime patrol and prevention.

Food protein digestibility and bioavailability are critical aspects in addressing human nutritional demands, particularly when seeking sustainable alternatives to animal-based proteins. In this study, we propose a machine learning approach to predict the true ileal digestibility coefficient of food items. The model makes use of a unique curated dataset that combines nutritional information from different foods with FASTA sequences of some of their protein families. We extracted the biochemical properties of the proteins and combined these properties with embeddings from a Transformer-based protein Language Model (pLM). In addition, we used SHAP to identify features that contribute most to the model prediction and provide interpretability. This first AI-based model for predicting food protein digestibility has an accuracy of 90% compared to existing experimental techniques. With this accuracy, our model can eliminate the need for lengthy in-vivo or in-vitro experiments, making the process of creating new foods faster, cheaper, and more ethical.