The accuracy and understandability of bank failure prediction models are crucial. While interpretable models like logistic regression are favored for their explainability, complex models such as random forest, support vector machines, and deep learning offer higher predictive performance but lower explainability. These models, known as black boxes, make it difficult to derive actionable insights. To address this challenge, using counterfactual explanations is suggested. These explanations demonstrate how changes in input variables can alter the model output and suggest ways to mitigate bank failure risk. The key challenge lies in selecting the most effective method for generating useful counterfactuals, which should demonstrate validity, proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. The paper evaluates several counterfactual generation methods: WhatIf, Multi Objective, and Nearest Instance Counterfactual Explanation, and also explores resampling methods like undersampling, oversampling, SMOTE, and the cost sensitive approach to address data imbalance in bank failure prediction in the US. The results indicate that the Nearest Instance Counterfactual Explanation method yields higher quality counterfactual explanations, mainly using the cost sensitive approach. Overall, the Multi Objective Counterfactual and Nearest Instance Counterfactual Explanation methods outperform others regarding validity, proximity, and sparsity metrics, with the cost sensitive approach providing the most desirable counterfactual explanations. These findings highlight the variability in the performance of counterfactual generation methods across different balancing strategies and machine learning models, offering valuable strategies to enhance the utility of black box bank failure prediction models.

Despite significant advancements in AI driven by neural networks, tree-based machine learning (TBML) models excel on tabular data. These models exhibit promising energy efficiency, and high performance, particularly when accelerated on analog content-addressable memory (aCAM) arrays. However, optimizing their hardware deployment, especially in leveraging TBML model structure and aCAM circuitry, remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce MonoSparse-CAM, a novel content-addressable memory (CAM) based computing optimization technique. MonoSparse-CAM efficiently leverages TBML model sparsity and CAM array circuits, enhancing processing performance. Our experiments show that MonoSparse-CAM reduces energy consumption by up to 28.56x compared to raw processing and 18.51x compared to existing deployment optimization techniques. Additionally, it consistently achieves at least 1.68x computational efficiency over current methods. By enabling energy-efficient CAM-based computing while preserving performance regardless of the array sparsity, MonoSparse-CAM addresses the high energy consumption problem of CAM which hinders processing of large arrays. Our contributions are twofold: we propose MonoSparse-CAM as an effective deployment optimization solution for CAM-based computing, and we investigate the impact of TBML model structure on array sparsity. This work provides crucial insights for energy-efficient TBML on hardware, highlighting a significant advancement in sustainable AI technologies.

Random Forest (RF) is a popular tree-ensemble method for supervised learning, prized for its ease of use and flexibility. Online RF models require to account for new training data to maintain model accuracy. This is particularly important in applications where data is periodically and sequentially generated over time in data streams, such as auto-driving systems, and credit card payments. In this setting, performing periodic model retraining with the old and new data accumulated is beneficial as it fully captures possible drifts in the data distribution over time. However, this is unpractical with state-of-the-art classical algorithms for RF as they scale linearly with the accumulated number of samples. We propose QC-Forest, a classical-quantum algorithm designed to time-efficiently retrain RF models in the streaming setting for multi-class classification and regression, achieving a runtime poly-logarithmic in the total number of accumulated samples. QC-Forest leverages Des-q, a quantum algorithm for single tree construction and retraining proposed by Kumar et al. by expanding to multi-class classification, as the original proposal was limited to binary classes, and introducing an exact classical method to replace an underlying quantum subroutine incurring a finite error, while maintaining the same poly-logarithmic dependence. Finally, we showcase that QC-Forest achieves competitive accuracy in comparison to state-of-the-art RF methods on widely used benchmark datasets with up to 80,000 samples, while significantly speeding up the model retrain.

In machine learning algorithm design, there exists a trade-off between the interpretability and performance of the algorithm. In general, algorithms which are simpler and easier for humans to comprehend tend to show worse performance than more complex, less transparent algorithms. For example, a random forest classifier is likely to be more accurate than a simple decision tree, but at the expense of interpretability. In this paper, we present an ensemble classifier design which classifies easier inputs using a highly-interpretable classifier (i.e., white box model), and more difficult inputs using a more powerful, but less interpretable classifier (i.e., black box model).

The successful application of machine learning (ML) in catalyst design relies on high-quality and diverse data to ensure effective generalization to novel compositions, thereby aiding in catalyst discovery. However, due to complex interactions, catalyst design has long relied on trial-and-error, a costly and labor-intensive process leading to scarce data that is heavily biased towards undesired, low-yield catalysts. Despite the rise of ML in this field, most efforts have not focused on dealing with the challenges presented by such experimental data. To address these challenges, we introduce a robust machine learning and explainable AI (XAI) framework to accurately classify the catalytic yield of various compositions and identify the contributions of individual components. This framework combines a series of ML practices designed to handle the scarcity and imbalance of catalyst data. We apply the framework to classify the yield of various catalyst compositions in oxidative methane coupling, and use it to evaluate the performance of a range of ML models: tree-based models, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. These experiments demonstrate that the methods used in our framework lead to a significant improvement in the performance of all but one of the evaluated models. Additionally, the decision-making process of each ML model is analyzed by identifying the most important features for predicting catalyst performance using XAI methods. Our analysis found that XAI methods, providing class-aware explanations, such as Layer-wise Relevance Propagation, identified key components that contribute specifically to high-yield catalysts. These findings align with chemical intuition and existing literature, reinforcing their validity. We believe that such insights can assist chemists in the development and identification of novel catalysts with superior performance.

Sepsis, a critical condition from the body's response to infection, poses a major global health crisis affecting all age groups. Timely detection and intervention are crucial for reducing healthcare expenses and improving patient outcomes. This paper examines the limitations of traditional sepsis screening tools like Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Modified Early Warning Score, and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, highlighting the need for advanced approaches. We propose using machine learning techniques - Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Decision Tree models - to predict sepsis onset. Our study evaluates these models individually and in a combined meta-ensemble approach using key metrics such as Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 score, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. Results show that the meta-ensemble model outperforms individual models, achieving an AUC-ROC score of 0.96, indicating superior predictive accuracy for early sepsis detection. The Random Forest model also performs well with an AUC-ROC score of 0.95, while Extreme Gradient Boosting and Decision Tree models score 0.94 and 0.90, respectively.

Network reliability analysis remains a challenge due to the increasing size and complexity of networks. This paper presents a novel sampling method and an active learning method for efficient and accurate network reliability estimation under node failure and edge failure scenarios. The proposed sampling method adopts Monte Carlo technique to sample component lifetimes and the K-terminal spanning tree algorithm to accelerate structure function computation. Unlike existing methods that compute only one structure function value per sample, our method generates multiple component state vectors and corresponding structure function values from each sample. Network reliability is estimated based on survival signatures derived from these values. A transformation technique extends this method to handle both node failure and edge failure. To enhance efficiency of proposed sampling method and achieve adaptability to network topology changes, we introduce an active learning method utilizing a random forest (RF) classifier. This classifier directly predicts structure function values, integrates network behaviors across diverse topologies, and undergoes iterative refinement to enhance predictive accuracy. Importantly, the trained RF classifier can directly predict reliability for variant networks, a capability beyond the sampling method alone. Through investigating several network examples and two practical applications, the effectiveness of both proposed methods is demonstrated.

The Rashomon Effect, coined by Leo Breiman, describes the phenomenon that there exist many equally good predictive models for the same dataset. This phenomenon happens for many real datasets and when it does, it sparks both magic and consternation, but mostly magic. In light of the Rashomon Effect, this perspective piece proposes reshaping the way we think about machine learning, particularly for tabular data problems in the nondeterministic (noisy) setting. We address how the Rashomon Effect impacts (1) the existence of simple-yet-accurate models, (2) flexibility to address user preferences, such as fairness and monotonicity, without losing performance, (3) uncertainty in predictions, fairness, and explanations, (4) reliable variable importance, (5) algorithm choice, specifically, providing advanced knowledge of which algorithms might be suitable for a given problem, and (6) public policy. We also discuss a theory of when the Rashomon Effect occurs and why. Our goal is to illustrate how the Rashomon Effect can have a massive impact on the use of machine learning for complex problems in society.

Purpose- The significance of business processes has fostered a close collaboration between academia and industry. Moreover, the business landscape has witnessed continuous transformation, closely intertwined with technological advancements. Our main goal is to offer researchers and process analysts insights into the latest developments concerning Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to optimize their processes in an organization and identify research gaps and future directions in the field. Design/methodology/approach- In this study, we perform a systematic review of academic literature to investigate the integration of AI/ML in business process management (BPM). We categorize the literature according to the BPM life-cycle and employ bibliometric and objective-oriented methodology, to analyze related papers. Findings- In business process management and process map, AI/ML has made significant improvements using operational data on process metrics. These developments involve two distinct stages: (1) process enhancement, which emphasizes analyzing process information and adding descriptions to process models, and (2) process improvement, which focuses on redesigning processes based on insights derived from analysis. Research limitations/implications- While this review paper serves to provide an overview of different approaches for addressing process-related challenges, it does not delve deeply into the intricacies of fine-grained technical details of each method. This work focuses on recent papers conducted between 2010 and 2024. Originality/value- This paper adopts a pioneering approach by conducting an extensive examination of the integration of AI/ML techniques across the entire process management lifecycle. Additionally, it presents groundbreaking research and introduces AI/ML-enabled integrated tools, further enhancing the insights for future research.

Machine learning has been successfully applied in developing malware detection systems, with a primary focus on accuracy, and increasing attention to reducing computational overhead and improving model interpretability. However, an important question remains underexplored: How well can machine learning-based models detect entirely new forms of malware not present in the training data? In this study, we present a machine learning-based system for detecting obfuscated malware that is not only highly accurate, lightweight and interpretable, but also capable of successfully adapting to new types of malware attacks. Our system is capable of detecting 15 malware subtypes despite being exclusively trained on one malware subtype, namely the Transponder from the Spyware family. This system was built after training 15 distinct random forest-based models, each on a different malware subtype from the CIC-MalMem-2022 dataset. These models were evaluated against the entire range of malware subtypes, including all unseen malware subtypes. To maintain the system's streamlined nature, training was confined to the top five most important features, which also enhanced interpretability. The Transponder-focused model exhibited high accuracy, exceeding 99.8%, with an average processing speed of 5.7 microseconds per file. We also illustrate how the Shapley additive explanations technique can facilitate the interpretation of the model predictions. Our research contributes to advancing malware detection methodologies, pioneering the feasibility of detecting obfuscated malware by exclusively training a model on a single or a few carefully selected malware subtypes and applying it to detect unseen subtypes.