Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We develop a scalable, computationally efficient method for the task of energy disaggregation for home appliance monitoring. In this problem the goal is to estimate the energy consumption of each appliance over time based on the total energy-consumption signal of a household. The current state of the art is to model the problem as inference in factorial HMMs, and use quadratic programming to find an approximate solution to the resulting quadratic integer program. Here we take a more principled approach, better suited to integer programming problems, and find an approximate optimum by combining convex semidefinite relaxations randomized rounding, as well as a scalable ADMM method that exploits the special structure of the resulting semidefinite program. Simulation results both in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.

We consider the assortment optimization problem when customer preferences follow a mixture of Mallows distributions. The assortment optimization problem focuses on determining the revenue/profit maximizing subset of products from a large universe of products; it is an important decision that is commonly faced by retailers in determining what to offer their customers. There are two key challenges: (a) the Mallows distribution lacks a closed-form expression (and requires summing an exponential number of terms) to compute the choice probability and, hence, the expected revenue/profit per customer; and (b) finding the best subset may require an exhaustive search. Our key contributions are an efficiently computable closed-form expression for the choice probability under the Mallows model and a compact mixed integer linear program (MIP) formulation for the assortment problem.

Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances. The catcher's policy switches between generating reactive and predictive behavior based on the ratio of system to observation noise and the ratio between reaction time and task duration. Thus, we provide a rational account of human ball-catching behavior and a unifying explanation for seemingly contradictory theories of target interception on the basis of stochastic optimal control.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Probabilistic graphical models have been widely used to model complex systems and aid scientific discoveries. As a result, there is a large body of literature focused on consistent model selection. However, scientists are often interested in understanding uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for edge parameters for pairwise graphical models based on Hyvärinen scoring rule. Hyvärinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form.

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

In multi-step learning, where a final learning task is accomplished via a sequence of intermediate learning tasks, the intuition is that successive steps or levels transform the initial data into representations more and more "suited" to the final learning task. A related principle arises in transfer-learning where Baxter (2000) proposed a theoretical framework to study how learning multiple tasks transforms the inductive bias of a learner. The most widespread multi-step learning approach is semisupervised learning with two steps: unsupervised, then supervised. Several authors (Castelli-Cover, 1996; Balcan-Blum, 2005; Niyogi, 2008; Ben-David et al, 2008; Urner et al, 2011) have analyzed SSL, with Balcan-Blum (2005) proposing a version of the PAC learning framework augmented by a "compatibility function" to link concept class and unlabeled data distribution. We propose to analyze SSL and other multi-step learning approaches, much in the spirit of Baxter's framework, by defining a learning problem generatively as a joint statistical model on X Y.

Online optimization covers problems such as online resource allocation, online bipartite matching, adwords (a central problem in e-commerce and advertising), and adwords with separable concave returns. We analyze the worst case competitive ratio of two primal-dual algorithms for a class of online convex (conic) optimization problems that contains the previous examples as special cases defined on the positive orthant.

Medical researchers are coming to appreciate that many diseases are in fact complex, heterogeneous syndromes composed of subpopulations that express different variants of a related complication. Longitudinal data extracted from individual electronic health records (EHR) offer an exciting new way to study subtle differences in the way these diseases progress over time. In this paper, we focus on answering two questions that can be asked using these databases of longitudinal EHR data. First, we want to understand whether there are individuals with similar disease trajectories and whether there are a small number of degrees of freedom that account for differences in trajectories across the population. Second, we want to understand how important clinical outcomes are associated with disease trajectories. To answer these questions, we propose the Disease Trajectory Map (DTM), a novel probabilistic model that learns low-dimensional representations of sparse and irregularly sampled longitudinal data. We propose a stochastic variational inference algorithm for learning the DTM that allows the model to scale to large modern medical datasets. To demonstrate the DTM, we analyze data collected on patients with the complex autoimmune disease, scleroderma. We find that DTM learns meaningful representations of disease trajectories and that the representations are significantly associated with important clinical outcomes.