Despite the sustained popularity of Q-learning as a practical tool for policy determination, a majority of relevant theoretical literature deals with either constant ($η_{t}\equiv η$) or polynomially decaying ($η_{t} = ηt^{-α}$) learning schedules. However, it is well known that these choices suffer from either persistent bias or prohibitively slow convergence. In contrast, the recently proposed linear decay to zero (\texttt{LD2Z}: $η_{t,n}=η(1-t/n)$) schedule has shown appreciable empirical performance, but its theoretical and statistical properties remain largely unexplored, especially in the Q-learning setting. We address this gap in the literature by first considering a general class of power-law decay to zero (\texttt{PD2Z}-$ν$: $η_{t,n}=η(1-t/n)^ν$). Proceeding step-by-step, we present a sharp non-asymptotic error bound for Q-learning with \texttt{PD2Z}-$ν$ schedule, which then is used to derive a central limit theory for a new \textit{tail} Polyak-Ruppert averaging estimator. Finally, we also provide a novel time-uniform Gaussian approximation (also known as \textit{strong invariance principle}) for the partial sum process of Q-learning iterates, which facilitates bootstrap-based inference. All our theoretical results are complemented by extensive numerical experiments. Beyond being new theoretical and statistical contributions to the Q-learning literature, our results definitively establish that \texttt{LD2Z} and in general \texttt{PD2Z}-$ν$ achieve a best-of-both-worlds property: they inherit the rapid decay from initialization (characteristic of constant step-sizes) while retaining the asymptotic convergence guarantees (characteristic of polynomially decaying schedules). This dual advantage explains the empirical success of \texttt{LD2Z} while providing practical guidelines for inference through our results.

Fréchet regression, or conditional Barycenters, is a flexible framework for modeling relationships between covariates (usually Euclidean) and response variables on general metric spaces, e.g., probability distributions or positive definite matrices. However, in contrast to classical barycenter problems, computing conditional counterparts in many non-Euclidean spaces remains an open challenge, as they yield non-convex optimization problems with an affine structure. In this work, we study the existence and computation of conditional barycenters, specifically in the space of positive-definite matrices with the Bures-Wasserstein metric. We provide a sufficient condition for the existence of a minimizer of the conditional barycenter problem that characterizes the regression range of extrapolation. Moreover, we further characterize the optimization landscape, proving that under this condition, the objective is free of local maxima. Additionally, we develop a projection-free and provably correct algorithm for the approximate computation of first-order stationary points. Finally, we provide a stochastic reformulation that enables the use of off-the-shelf stochastic Riemannian optimization methods for large-scale setups. Numerical experiments validate the performance of the proposed methods on regression problems of real-world biological networks and on large-scale synthetic Diffusion Tensor Imaging problems.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In this paper, we study decision rules induced by deep, fully connected feedforward ReLU BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss. We show that, for fixed prior scales, the induced Bayes decision rule is not minimax. We then propose a hyperprior on the effective output variance of the BNN prior that yields a superharmonic square-root marginal density, establishing that the resulting decision rule is simultaneously admissible and minimax. We further extend these results from the quadratic loss setting to the predictive density estimation problem with Kullback--Leibler loss. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings numerically through simulation.

In many modern applications, a carefully designed primary study provides individual-level data for interpretable modeling, while summary-level external information is available through black-box, efficient, and nonparametric machine-learning predictions. Although summary-level external information has been studied in the data integration literature, there is limited methodology for leveraging external nonparametric machine-learning predictions to improve statistical inference in the primary study. We propose a general empirical-likelihood framework that incorporates external predictions through moment constraints. An advantage of nonparametric machine-learning prediction is that it induces a rich class of valid moment restrictions that remain robust to covariate shift under a mild overlap condition without requiring explicit density-ratio modeling. We focus on multinomial logistic regression as the primary model and address common data-quality issues in external sources, including coarsened outcomes, partially observed covariates, covariate shift, and heterogeneity in generating mechanisms known as concept shift. We establish large-sample properties of the resulting fused estimator, including consistency and asymptotic normality under regularity conditions. Moreover, we provide mild sufficient conditions under which incorporating external predictions delivers a strict efficiency gain relative to the primary-only estimator. Simulation studies and an application to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey on multiclass blood-pressure classification.

Foundation models for biology and physics optimize predictive accuracy, but their internal representations systematically fail to preserve the continuous geometry of the systems they model. We identify the root cause: the Geometric Alignment Tax, an intrinsic cost of forcing continuous manifolds through discrete categorical bottlenecks. Controlled ablations on synthetic dynamical systems demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy with a continuous head on an identical encoder reduces geometric distortion by up to 8.5x, while learned codebooks exhibit a non-monotonic double bind where finer quantization worsens geometry despite improving reconstruction. Under continuous objectives, three architectures differ by 1.3x; under discrete tokenization, they diverge by 3,000x. Evaluating 14 biological foundation models with rate-distortion theory and MINE, we identify three failure regimes: Local-Global Decoupling, Representational Compression, and Geometric Vacuity. A controlled experiment confirms that Evo 2's reverse-complement robustness on real DNA reflects conserved sequence composition, not learned symmetry. No model achieves simultaneously low distortion, high mutual information, and global coherence.

Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate the causal effect of treatments that are assigned based on a running variable crossing a threshold. Such threshold-based rules are ubiquitous in healthcare, where predictive and prognostic biomarkers frequently guide treatment decisions. However, standard RD estimators rely on complete outcome data, an assumption often violated in time-to-event analyses where censoring arises from loss to follow-up. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric approach that leverages doubly robust censoring corrections and can be paired with existing RD estimators. Our approach can handle multiple survival endpoints, long follow-up times, and covariate-dependent variation in survival and censoring. We discuss the relevance of our approach across multiple areas of applications and demonstrate its usefulness through simulations and the prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial where our new approach offers several advantages, including higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification. We have also developed an open-source software package, $\texttt{rdsurvival}$, for the $\texttt{R}$ language.

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely used for future climate projections, but their coarse spatial resolution and systematic biases limit their direct use for impact studies. This limitation is particularly critical for wind-related applications, such as wind energy, which require spatially coherent, multivariate, and physically plausible near-surface wind fields. Classical statistical downscaling and bias correction methods partly address this issue. Still, they struggle to preserve spatial structure, inter-variable consistency, and robustness under climate change, especially in high-dimensional settings. Recent advances in generative machine learning offer new opportunities for downscaling and bias correction, eliminating the need for explicitly paired low- and high-resolution datasets. However, many existing approaches remain difficult to interpret and challenging to deploy in operational climate impact studies. In this work, we apply SerpentFlow, an interpretable, generative, domain alignment framework, to the multivariate downscaling and bias correction of wind variables from GCM outputs. This is a method that generates low-resolution/high-resolution training data pairs by separating large-scale spatial patterns from small-scale variability. Large-scale components are aligned across climate model and observational domains. Conditional fine-scale variability is then learned using a flow-matching generative model. We apply the approach to multiple wind variables downscaling, including average and maximal wind speed, zonal and meridional components, and compare it with widely used multivariate bias correction methods. Results show improved spatial coherence, inter-variable consistency, and robustness under future climate conditions, highlighting the potential of interpretable generative models for wind and energy applications.

High-dimensional statistical settings ($p \gg n$) pose fundamental challenges for classical inference, largely due to bias introduced by regularized estimators such as the LASSO. To address this, Javanmard and Montanari (2014) propose a debiased estimator that enables valid hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction. This report examines their debiased LASSO framework, which yields asymptotically normal estimators in high-dimensional settings. The key theoretical results underlying this approach are presented. Specifically, the construction of an optimized debiased estimator that restores asymptotic normality, which enables the computation of valid confidence intervals and $p$-values. To evaluate the claims of Javanmard and Montanari, a subset of the original simulation study and the real-data analysis is presented. The original empirical analysis is extended to the desparsified LASSO, which is referenced but not implemented in the original study. The results demonstrate that while the debiased LASSO achieves reliable coverage and controls Type I error, the LASSO projection estimator can offer improved power in idealized low-signal settings without compromising error rates. The results reveal a trade-off: the LASSO projection estimator performs well in low-signal settings, while Javanmard and Montanari's method is more robust to complex correlations, improving precision and signal detection in real data.

Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced. This tutorial presents modern generative models, particularly flow- and score-based methods, as mathematical tools for constructing decision-relevant distributions. From an operations research perspective, their primary value lies not in unconstrained sample synthesis but in representing and transforming distributions through transport maps, velocity fields, score fields, and guided stochastic dynamics. We present a unified framework based on pushforward maps, continuity, Fokker-Planck equations, Wasserstein geometry, and optimization in probability space. Within this framework, generative models can be used to learn nominal uncertainty, construct stressed or least-favorable distributions for robustness, and produce conditional or posterior distributions under side information and partial observation. We also highlight representative theoretical guarantees, including forward-reverse convergence for iterative flow models, first-order minimax analysis in transport-map space, and error-transfer bounds for posterior sampling with generative priors. The tutorial provides a principled introduction to using generative models for scenario generation, robust decision-making, uncertainty quantification, and related problems under distributional shift.

Machine learning (ML) models have achieved strikingly high accuracies in spectroscopic classification tasks, often without a clear proof that those models used chemically meaningful features. Existing studies have linked these results to data preprocessing choices, noise sensitivity, and model complexity, but no unifying explanation is available so far. In this work, we show that these phenomena arise naturally from the intrinsic high dimensionality of spectral data. Using a theoretical analysis grounded in the Feldman-Hajek theorem and the concentration of measure, we show that even infinitesimal distributional differences, caused by noise, normalisation, or instrumental artefacts, may become perfectly separable in high-dimensional spaces. Through a series of specific experiments on synthetic and real fluorescence spectra, we illustrate how models can achieve near-perfect accuracy even when chemical distinctions are absent, and why feature-importance maps may highlight spectrally irrelevant regions. We provide a rigorous theoretical framework, confirm the effect experimentally, and conclude with practical recommendations for building and interpreting ML models in spectroscopy.