We study the problem of learning a latent tree graphical model where samples are available only from a subset of variables. We propose two consistent and computationally efficient algorithms for learning minimal latent trees, that is, trees without any redundant hidden nodes. Unlike many existing methods, the observed nodes (or variables) are not constrained to be leaf nodes. Our first algorithm, recursive grouping, builds the latent tree recursively by identifying sibling groups using so-called information distances. One of the main contributions of this work is our second algorithm, which we refer to as CLGrouping. CLGrouping starts with a pre-processing procedure in which a tree over the observed variables is constructed. This global step groups the observed nodes that are likely to be close to each other in the true latent tree, thereby guiding subsequent recursive grouping (or equivalent procedures) on much smaller subsets of variables. This results in more accurate and efficient learning of latent trees. We also present regularized versions of our algorithms that learn latent tree approximations of arbitrary distributions. We compare the proposed algorithms to other methods by performing extensive numerical experiments on various latent tree graphical models such as hidden Markov models and star graphs. In addition, we demonstrate the applicability of our methods on real-world datasets by modeling the dependency structure of monthly stock returns in the S&P index and of the words in the 20 newsgroups dataset.

Complex network theory aims to model and analyze complex systems that consist of multiple and interdependent components. Among all studies on complex networks, topological structure analysis is of the most fundamental importance, as it represents a natural route to understand the dynamics, as well as to synthesize or optimize the functions, of networks. A broad spectrum of network structural patterns have been respectively reported in the past decade, such as communities, multipartites, hubs, authorities, outliers, bow ties, and others. Here, we show that most individual real-world networks demonstrate multiplex structures. That is, a multitude of known or even unknown (hidden) patterns can simultaneously situate in the same network, and moreover they may be overlapped and nested with each other to collaboratively form a heterogeneous, nested or hierarchical organization, in which different connective phenomena can be observed at different granular levels. In addition, we show that the multiplex structures hidden in exploratory networks can be well defined as well as effectively recognized within an unified framework consisting of a set of proposed concepts, models, and algorithms. Our findings provide a strong evidence that most real-world complex systems are driven by a combination of heterogeneous mechanisms that may col-1 laboratively shape their ubiquitous multiplex structures as we observe currently. This work also contributes a mathematical tool for analyzing different sources of networks from a new perspective of unveiling multiplex structures, which will be beneficial to multiple disciplines including sociology, economics and computer science. 1 Introduction Complex network analysis provides a novel approach to examining how networked systems in nature are originated and evolving according to what basic principles, and moreover armed with such discovered principles, constructing efficient, robust as well as flexible man-made networked systems under different constraints.

Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirectedMarkov chains tomodel complex hierarchical, nestedMarkov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorithms for learning and inference. Importantly, we consider partiallysupervised learning and propose algorithms for generalised partially-supervised learning and constrained inference. We demonstrate the HSCRF in two applications: (i) recognising human activities of daily living (ADLs) from indoor surveillance cameras, and (ii) noun-phrase chunking. We show that the HSCRF is capable of learning rich hierarchical models with reasonable accuracy in both fully and partially observed data cases.

Ensuring sufficient liquidity is one of the key challenges for designers of prediction markets. Various market making algorithms have been proposed in the literature and deployed in practice, but there has been little effort to evaluate their benefits and disadvantages in a systematic manner. We introduce a novel experimental design for comparing market structures in live trading that ensures fair comparison between two different microstructures with the same trading population. Participants trade on outcomes related to a two-dimensional random walk that they observe on their computer screens. They can simultaneously trade in two markets, corresponding to the independent horizontal and vertical random walks. We use this experimental design to compare the popular inventory-based logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) market maker and a new information based Bayesian market maker (BMM). Our experiments reveal that BMM can offer significant benefits in terms of price stability and expected loss when controlling for liquidity; the caveat is that, unlike LMSR, BMM does not guarantee bounded loss. Our investigation also elucidates some general properties of market makers in prediction markets. In particular, there is an inherent tradeoff between adaptability to market shocks and convergence during market equilibrium.

We propose a simple kernel based nearest neighbor approach for handwritten digit classification. The "distance" here is actually a kernel defining the similarity between two images. We carefully study the effects of different number of neighbors and weight schemes and report the results. With only a few nearest neighbors (or most similar images) to vote, the test set error rate on MNIST database could reach about 1.5%-2.0%,

In this paper we introduce a novel method for automatically tuning the search parameters of a chess program using genetic algorithms. Our results show that a large set of parameter values can be learned automatically, such that the resulting performance is comparable with that of manually tuned parameters of top tournament-playing chess programs.

Classic evaluation methods of believable agents are time-consuming because they involve many human to judge agents. They are well suited to validate work on new believable behaviours models. However, during the implementation, numerous experiments can help to improve agents' believability. We propose a method which aim at assessing how much an agent's behaviour looks like humans' behaviours. By representing behaviours with vectors, we can store data computed for humans and then evaluate as many agents as needed without further need of humans. We present a test experiment which shows that even a simple evaluation following our method can reveal differences between quite believable agents and humans. This method seems promising although, as shown in our experiment, results' analysis can be difficult.

ABSTRACT In this paper, we address the problem of creating believable agents (virtual characters) in video games. We consider only one meaning of believability, "giving the feeling of being controlled by a player", and outline the problem of its evaluation. We present several models for agents in games which can produce believable behaviours, both from industry and research. For high level of believability, learning and especially imitation learning seems to be the way to go. We make a quick overview of different approaches to make video games' agents learn from players. To conclude we propose a two-step method to develop new models for believable agents. First we must find the criteria for believability for our application and define an evaluation method. Then the model and the learning algorithm can be designed. INTRODUCTION Nowadays, more and more consoles and video games are designed to make the player feel like he/she is in the game. To define how well this goal is achieved, two criteria have been defined in academic research: immersion and presence. According to Slater, immersion is an objective criterion which depends on the hardware and software(Slater et al. 1995). It includes criteria based on virtual sensory information's types, variety, richness, direction and in which extend they override real ones. For example, force feedback and motion sensing controllers, surround sound and high dynamic range rendering can improve the immersion. Presence, also known as telepresence (Steuer 1992), is a more subjective criterion.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular framework to express multivariate probability distributions. Acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) are generalizations of DAGs that can succinctly capture much richer sets of conditional independencies, and are especially useful in modeling the effects of latent variables implicitly. Unfortunately there are currently no good parameterizations of general ADMGs. In this paper, we apply recent work on cumulative distribution networks and copulas to propose one one general construction for ADMG models. We consider a simple parameter estimation approach, and report some encouraging experimental results.

Machine Consciousness and Machine Intelligence are not simply new buzzwords that occupy our imagination. Over the last decades, we witness an unprecedented rise in attempts to create machines with human-like features and capabilities. However, despite widespread sympathy and abundant funding, progress in these enterprises is far from being satisfactory. The reasons for this are twofold: First, the notions of cognition and intelligence (usually borrowed from human behavior studies) are notoriously blurred and ill-defined, and second, the basic concepts underpinning the whole discourse are by themselves either undefined or defined very vaguely. That leads to improper and inadequate research goals determination, which I will illustrate with some examples drawn from recent documents issued by DARPA and the European Commission. On the other hand, I would like to propose some remedies that, I hope, would improve the current state-of-the-art disgrace.