The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is continuous and there is no confirmative threshold, ROC curve becomes less useful. Hence, there are several extensions proposed for evaluating the diagnostic potential of variables of interest. However, due to the computational difficulties of these nonparametric based extensions, they are not easy to be used for finding the optimal combination of variables to improve the individual diagnostic power. Therefore, we propose a new measure, which extends the AUC index for identifying variables with good potential to be used in a diagnostic scheme. In addition, we propose a threshold gradient descent based algorithm for finding the best linear combination of variables that maximizes this new measure, which is applicable even when the number of variables is huge. The estimate of the proposed index and its asymptotic property are studied. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated using both synthesized and real data sets.

Rubik's Cube is an easily-understood puzzle, which is originally called the "magic cube". It is a well-known planning problem, which has been studied for a long time. Yet many simple properties remain unknown. This paper studies whether modern SAT solvers are applicable to this puzzle. To our best knowledge, we are the first to translate Rubik's Cube to a SAT problem. To reduce the number of variables and clauses needed for the encoding, we replace a naive approach of 6 Boolean variables to represent each color on each facelet with a new approach of 3 or 2 Boolean variables. In order to be able to solve quickly Rubik's Cube, we replace the direct encoding of 18 turns with the layer encoding of 18-subtype turns based on 6-type turns. To speed up the solving further, we encode some properties of two-phase algorithm as an additional constraint, and restrict some move sequences by adding some constraint clauses. Using only efficient encoding cannot solve this puzzle. For this reason, we improve the existing SAT solvers, and develop a new SAT solver based on PrecoSAT, though it is suited only for Rubik's Cube. The new SAT solver replaces the lookahead solving strategy with an ALO (\emph{at-least-one}) solving strategy, and decomposes the original problem into sub-problems. Each sub-problem is solved by PrecoSAT. The empirical results demonstrate both our SAT translation and new solving technique are efficient. Without the efficient SAT encoding and the new solving technique, Rubik's Cube will not be able to be solved still by any SAT solver. Using the improved SAT solver, we can find always a solution of length 20 in a reasonable time. Although our solver is slower than Kociemba's algorithm using lookup tables, but does not require a huge lookup table.

Controlling sensori-motor systems in higher animals or complex robots is a challenging combinatorial problem, because many sensory signals need to be simultaneously coordinated into a broad behavioural spectrum. To rapidly interact with the environment, this control needs to be fast and adaptive. Current robotic solutions operate with limited autonomy and are mostly restricted to few behavioural patterns. Here we introduce chaos control as a new strategy to generate complex behaviour of an autonomous robot. In the presented system, 18 sensors drive 18 motors via a simple neural control circuit, thereby generating 11 basic behavioural patterns (e.g., orienting, taxis, self-protection, various gaits) and their combinations. The control signal quickly and reversibly adapts to new situations and additionally enables learning and synaptic long-term storage of behaviourally useful motor responses. Thus, such neural control provides a powerful yet simple way to self-organize versatile behaviours in autonomous agents with many degrees of freedom.

This paper describes a graph clustering algorithm that aims to minimize the normalized cut criterion and has a model order selection procedure. The performance of the proposed algorithm is comparable to spectral approaches in terms of minimizing normalized cut. However, unlike spectral approaches, the proposed algorithm scales to graphs with millions of nodes and edges. The algorithm consists of three components that are processed sequentially: a greedy agglomerative hierarchical clustering procedure, model order selection, and a local refinement. For a graph of n nodes and O(n) edges, the computational complexity of the algorithm is O(n log^2 n), a major improvement over the O(n^3) complexity of spectral methods. Experiments are performed on real and synthetic networks to demonstrate the scalability of the proposed approach, the effectiveness of the model order selection procedure, and the performance of the proposed algorithm in terms of minimizing the normalized cut metric.

We study decision making in environments where the reward is only partially observed, but can be modeled as a function of an action and an observed context. This setting, known as contextual bandits, encompasses a wide variety of applications including health-care policy and Internet advertising. A central task is evaluation of a new policy given historic data consisting of contexts, actions and received rewards. The key challenge is that the past data typically does not faithfully represent proportions of actions taken by a new policy. Previous approaches rely either on models of rewards or models of the past policy. The former are plagued by a large bias whereas the latter have a large variance. In this work, we leverage the strength and overcome the weaknesses of the two approaches by applying the doubly robust technique to the problems of policy evaluation and optimization. We prove that this approach yields accurate value estimates when we have either a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of rewards or a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of past policy. Extensive empirical comparison demonstrates that the doubly robust approach uniformly improves over existing techniques, achieving both lower variance in value estimation and better policies. As such, we expect the doubly robust approach to become common practice.

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The `normal' observations are coming from a known distribution whereas the distribution of the `abnormal' observations is unknown. Several models have been developed to fit this unknown distribution. In this paper, we propose an alternative based on a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The inference is done within a variational Bayesian framework and our aim is to infer the posterior probability of belonging to the class of interest. To this end, it makes no sense to estimate the mixture component number since each mixture model provides more or less relevant information to the posterior probability estimation. By computing a weighted average (named aggregated estimator) over the model collection, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is one way of combining models in order to account for information provided by each model. The aim is then the estimation of the weights and the posterior probability for one specific model. In this work, we derive optimal approximations of these quantities from the variational theory and propose other approximations of the weights. To perform our method, we consider that the data are dependent (Markovian dependency) and hence we consider a Hidden Markov Model. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates in terms of classification. We also present an application to the analysis of public health surveillance systems.

Over the years, nonmonotonic rules have proven to be a very expressive and useful knowledge representation paradigm. They have recently been used to complement the expressive power of Description Logics (DLs), leading to the study of integrative formal frameworks, generally referred to as hybrid knowledge bases, where both DL axioms and rules can be used to represent knowledge. The need to use these hybrid knowledge bases in dynamic domains has called for the development of update operators, which, given the substantially different way Description Logics and rules are usually updated, has turned out to be an extremely difficult task. In (Slota and Leite 2010b), a first step towards addressing this problem was taken, and an update operator for hybrid knowledge bases was proposed. Despite its significance - not only for being the first update operator for hybrid knowledge bases in the literature, but also because it has some applications - this operator was defined for a restricted class of problems where only the ABox was allowed to change, which considerably diminished its applicability. Many applications that use hybrid knowledge bases in dynamic scenarios require both DL axioms and rules to be updated. In this paper, motivated by real world applications, we introduce an update operator for a large class of hybrid knowledge bases where both the DL component as well as the rule component are allowed to dynamically change. We introduce splitting sequences and splitting theorem for hybrid knowledge bases, use them to define a modular update semantics, investigate its basic properties, and illustrate its use on a realistic example about cargo imports.

Challenges for Computing include Learning for Life (Taylor et al, 2008). Grand Research Challenges in Information Systems identifies the need to "provide a teacher for These are amongst the key challenges that AIED responds to. What will next generation AIED learning environments be like? GROE report (Woolf, 2010), in order to highlight the expected role of AIED research.

In this paper we apply Conformal Prediction (CP) to the k-Nearest Neighbours Regression (k-NNR) algorithm and propose ways of extending the typical nonconformity measure used for regression so far. Unlike traditional regression methods which produce point predictions, Conformal Predictors output predictive regions that satisfy a given confidence level. The regions produced by any Conformal Predictor are automatically valid, however their tightness and therefore usefulness depends on the nonconformity measure used by each CP. In effect a nonconformity measure evaluates how strange a given example is compared to a set of other examples based on some traditional machine learning algorithm. We define six novel nonconformity measures based on the k-Nearest Neighbours Regression algorithm and develop the corresponding CPs following both the original (transductive) and the inductive CP approaches. A comparison of the predictive regions produced by our measures with those of the typical regression measure suggests that a major improvement in terms of predictive region tightness is achieved by the new measures.

Current evaluation functions for heuristic planning are expensive to compute. In numerous planning problems these functions provide good guidance to the solution, so they are worth the expense. However, when evaluation functions are misguiding or when planning problems are large enough, lots of node evaluations must be computed, which severely limits the scalability of heuristic planners. In this paper, we present a novel solution for reducing node evaluations in heuristic planning based on machine learning. Particularly, we define the task of learning search control for heuristic planning as a relational classification task, and we use an off-the-shelf relational classification tool to address this learning task. Our relational classification task captures the preferred action to select in the different planning contexts of a specific planning domain. These planning contexts are defined by the set of helpful actions of the current state, the goals remaining to be achieved, and the static predicates of the planning task. This paper shows two methods for guiding the search of a heuristic planner with the learned classifiers. The first one consists of using the resulting classifier as an action policy. The second one consists of applying the classifier to generate lookahead states within a Best First Search algorithm. Experiments over a variety of domains reveal that our heuristic planner using the learned classifiers solves larger problems than state-of-the-art planners.