Widespread accounts of the harmful effects of invasive species have stimulated both practical and theoretical studies on how the spread of these destructive agents can be contained. In practice, a widely used method is the deployment of biological control agents, that is, the release of an additional species (which may also spread) that creates a hostile environment for the invader. Seeding colonies of these protective biological control agents can be used to build a kind of living barrier against the spread of the harmful invader, but the ecological literature documents that attempts to establish colonies of biological control agents often fail (opening gaps in the barrier). Further, the supply of the protective species is limited, and the full supply may not be available immediately. This problem has a natural temporal component: biological control is deployed as the extent of the harmful invasion grows. How can a limited supply of unreliable biological control agents best be deployed over time to protect the landscape against the spread of a harmful invasive species? To explore this question we introduce a new family of stochastic graph vaccination problems that generalizes ideas from social networks and multistage graph vaccination. We point out a deterministic (1 - 1/e)-approximation algorithm for a deterministic base case studied in the social networks literature (matching the previous best randomized (1 -1/e) guarantee for that problem). Next, we show that the randomized (1 -1/e) guarantee (and a deterministic 1/2 guarantee) can be extended to our much more general family of stochastic graph vaccination problems in which vaccinations (a.k.a. biological control colonies) spread but may be unreliable. For the non-spreading vaccination case with unreliable vaccines, we give matching results in trees. Qualitatively, our extension is from computing “cuts over time” to computing “robust cuts over time.” Our new family of problems captures the key tensions we identify for containing invasive species spread with unreliable biological control agents: a robust barrier is built over time with unreliable resources to contain an expanding invasion.

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a suitable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of such DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such "cooperative'' VPPs (CVPPs) using multi-agent technology. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with large overall production. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions from the CVPPs---and in turn, the member DERs---which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK. We show that our mechanism incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.

Active participation of customers in the management of demand, and renewable energy supply, is a critical goal of the Smart Grid vision. However, this is a complex problem with numerous scenarios that are difficult to test in field projects. Rich and scalable simulations are required to develop effective strategies and policies that elicit desirable behavior from customers. We present a versatile agent-based "factored model" that enables rich simulation scenarios across distinct customer types and varying agent granularity. We formally characterize the decisions to be made by Smart Grid customers as a multiscale decision-making problem and show how our factored model representation handles several temporal and contextual decisions by introducing a novel "utility optimizing agent." We further contribute innovative algorithms for (i) statistical learning-based hierarchical Bayesian timeseries simulation, and (ii) adaptive capacity control using decision-theoretic approximation of multiattribute utility functions over multiple agents. Prominent among the approaches being studied to achieve active customer participation is one based on offering customers financial incentives through variable-price tariffs; we also contribute an effective solution to the problem of "customer herding" under such tariffs. We support our contributions with experimental results from simulations based on real-world data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.

Non-intrusive appliance load monitoring is the process of disaggregating a household's total electricity consumption into its contributing appliances. In this paper we propose an approach by which individual appliances can be iteratively separated from an aggregate load. Unlike existing approaches, our approach does not require training data to be collected by sub-metering individual appliances, nor does it assume complete knowledge of the appliances present in the household. Instead, we propose an approach in which prior models of general appliance types are tuned to specific appliance instances using only signatures extracted from the aggregate load. The tuned appliance models are then used to estimate each appliance's load, which is subsequently subtracted from the aggregate load. This process is applied iteratively until all appliances for which prior behaviour models are known have been disaggregated. We evaluate the accuracy of our approach using the REDD data set, and show the disaggregation performance when using our training approach is comparable to when sub-metered training data is used. We also present a deployment of our system as a live application and demonstrate the potential for personalised energy saving feedback.

Many signals of interest are corrupted by faults of anunknown type. We propose an approach that uses Gaus-sian processes and a general “fault bucket” to capturea priori uncharacterised faults, along with an approxi-mate method for marginalising the potential faultinessof all observations. This gives rise to an efficient, flexible algorithm for the detection and automatic correction of faults. Our method is deployed in the domain of water monitoring and management, where it is able to solve several fault detection, correction, and prediction problems. The method works well despite the fact that the data is plagued with numerous difficulties, including missing observations, multiple discontinuities, nonlinearity and many unanticipated types of fault.

Modelling the density of an infectious disease in space and time is a task generally carried out separately from the diagnosis of that disease in individuals. These two inference problems are complementary, however: diagnosis of disease can be done more accurately if prior information from a spatial risk model is employed, and in turn a disease density model can benefit from the incorporation of rich symptomatic information rather than simple counts of presumed cases of infection. We propose a unifying framework for both of these tasks, and illustrate it with the case of malaria. To do this we first introduce a state space model of malaria spread, and secondly a computer vision based system for detecting plasmodium in microscopical blood smear images, which can be run on location-aware mobile devices. We demonstrate the tractability of combining both elements and the improvement in accuracy this brings about.

A key problem in climate science is how to combine the predictions of the multi-model ensemble of global climate models. Recent work in machine learning (Monteleoni et al. 2011) showed the promise of an algorithm for online learning with experts for this task.We extend the Tracking Climate Models (TCM) approach to (1) take into account climate model predictions at higher spatial resolutions and (2) to model geospatial neighborhood influence between regions. Our algorithm enables neighborhood influence by modifying the transition dynamics of the Hidden Markov Model used by TCM, allowing the performance of spatial neighbors to influence the temporal switching probabilities for the best expert (climate model) at a given location. In experiments on historical data at a variety of spatial resolutions, our algorithm demonstrates improvements over TCM, when tracking global temperature anomalies.

Understanding ecological complexity has stymied scientists for decades. Recent elucidation of the famously coined "devious strategies for stability in enduring natural systems" has opened up a new field of computational analyses of complex ecological networks where the nonlinear dynamics of many interacting species can be more realistically modeled and understood. Here, we describe the first extension of this field to include coupled human-natural systems. This extension elucidates new strategies for sustaining extraction of biomass (e.g., fish, forests, fiber) from ecosystems that account for ecological complexity and can pursue multiple goals such as maximizing economic profit, employment and carbon sequestration by ecosystems. Our more realistic modeling of ecosystems helps explain why simpler "maximum sustainable yield" bioeconomic models underpinning much natural resource extraction policy leads to less profit, biomass, and biodiversity than predicted by those simple models. Current research directions of this integrated natural and social science include applying artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and multiplayer online games.

Monitoring and managing urban air pollution is a significant challenge for the sustainability of our environment. We quickly survey the air pollution modeling problem, introduce a new dataset of mobile air quality measurements in Zurich, and discuss the challenges of making sense of these data.

The transition to renewables requires storage to help smooth short-term variations in energy from wind and solar sources, as well as to respond to spikes in electricity spot prices, which can easily exceed 20 times their average. Efficient operation of an energy storage device is a fundamental problem, yet classical algorithms such as $Q$-learning can diverge for millions of iterations, limiting practical applications. We have traced this behavior to the max-operator bias, which is exacerbated by high volatility in the reward function, and high discount factors due to the small time steps. We propose an elegant bias correction procedure and demonstrate its effectiveness.