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On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The statistical efficiency of these intervals depends critically on how the data are split into training and calibration samples. Despite its practical importance, a principled characterization of the training-calibration split that minimizes prediction interval length while maintaining coverage has remained largely unresolved. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for optimal data splitting in split conformal prediction. We first analyze the problem in a general setting and derive analytical characterizations of the length-optimal split ratio under both symmetric and asymmetric regimes. We then show how the general results specialize to several commonly used regression settings, including linear regression, nonparametric regression, and neural networks, thereby demonstrating the scope of the framework. We also describe a data-based method for selecting the optimal proportion. Our analysis clarifies how model-related features govern the optimal allocation of samples between training and calibration and provides principled guidance for constructing shorter prediction intervals. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology across a variety of practical scenarios.


The Trump Administration Is Lifting Its Export Controls on Anthropic's Mythos and Fable AI Models

WIRED

The Trump Administration Is Lifting Its Export Controls on Anthropic's Mythos and Fable AI Models The White House is easing restrictions on Anthropic's most advanced AI models weeks after ordering the company to suspend access for foreign nationals. The Trump administration is lifting export controls on Anthropic's two most powerful AI models after the company reached a deal with the Commerce Department. The news was communicated in a letter sent by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Anthropic cofounder Tom Brown viewed by WIRED. The department is lifting restrictions on both the Fable 5 model and the more powerful Mythos 5 model, which had so far been approved for release only to select companies and government agencies. "A license is no longer required for the export, reexport, or in-country transfer, including deemed export or deemed reexport, of the Mythos or Fable models," Lutnick wrote.


Claude Science is Anthropic's newest flagship product

MIT Technology Review

At an event for pharmaceutical executives, biotech founders, and researchers on Tuesday, Anthropic announced Claude Science, a major new product intended to support scientific research in the same way that Claude Code supports software engineering. Like Claude Code, Claude Science can autonomously carry out meaningful work when given concise, high-level instructions, and it has access to tools that make it particularly useful for research in computational biology and drug development. Along with launching and previewing Claude Science, which is now available to all paid Claude subscribers, Anthropic also announced that it will be using the product to pursue some of its own research into drugs for rare, neglected diseases. This is not Anthropic's first foray into AI for science. In October, the company released plug-ins that help Claude make use of scientific software and databases under the heading "Claude for Life Sciences." But unlike this earlier release, Claude Science is a full-featured, standalone product. Anthropic's decision to elevate Claude Science to the same rank as Claude Code and Claude Cowork indicates that the company is taking AI's scientific applications very seriously--or at least wants to give the impression that it is.


Bosnia and Herzegovina's World Cup Team Is Already Changing the Country's Story

TIME - Tech

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Daisy Sound's First Headphones Are Premium, High-Quality--and Just a Little Bit Cheaper

WIRED

Daisy's First Headphones Are Premium, High-Quality--and Just a Little Bit Cheaper The California-based startup enters a crowded headphone market with a $399 chiseled-aluminum gamble. Jack Mulroe thinks the premium headphone market is boring. Too focused on black, samey-looking devices; too caught up in the "spec wars" to figure out what the very best headset is . He just wants his California-inspired headphones to help people chill. "I just saw a pattern of there being kind of a dead space, honestly, in the headphone market, where the most recent culturally relevant brand was Beats," Mulroe says.


Republicans Push for Constitutional Amendment Restricting Birthright Citizenship After Supreme Court Ruling

TIME - Tech

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Netflix used AI to put Gene Wilder's voice into a new reality show

Engadget

Netflix used AI to put Gene Wilder's voice into a new reality show Netflix used AI to put Gene Wilder's voice into a new reality show Netflix has worked with ElevenLabs to develop a recreation of Gene Wilder's voice for use in an upcoming unscripted reality show inspired by Roald Dahl's novel . Wilder played chocolate factory owner Willy Wonka in the 1971 film adaptation of the book and the gen-AI version of his voice will be used in a competition program with challenges inspired by the both the book and the film. But as so often happens when I hear about AI-generated imitations of celebrities, my biggest question is: why? The AI-generated version of Wilder's voice appears to be in use in the show's trailer, and it does sound like his take on Willy Wonka. But it's eerie to hear that familiar voice narrating B-roll of a set that looks just like a production exec's idea of whimsy.


Frequent AI chatbot users more likely to believe anti-vaccine myths, poll finds

The Guardian

A man gets his Covid and flu vaccine shot at Boston city hall on 7 January 2026. A man gets his Covid and flu vaccine shot at Boston city hall on 7 January 2026. Adults in the US who frequently seek out health advice from artificial intelligence chatbots are more likely to believe myths about vaccines, according to a poll released on Tuesday by health research firm KFF. The survey, which was conducted in May and polled a representative sample of 2,480 US adults, found that use of AI tools and chatbots correlated with belief in falsehoods such as vaccines causing autism or that the measles vaccine poses more danger than the corresponding virus. The connection remained while controlling for factors such as age, race, education and political partisanship.


Decapitation, dismemberment, and deer antlers come together in one brutal Iron Age gravesite

Popular Science

Buried outside of an ancient Iberian fortification, the two men had a gnarly day. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The two men were buried outside a fortification's walls and not cremated as per tradition at the time. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. By signing up, you confirm you are 16+, will receive newsletters and promotional content and agree to our Terms of Use and acknowledge the data practices in our Privacy Policy .


Lawmakers press Eli Lilly for China drug trials tied to military-linked hospitals

FOX News

Eli Lilly faces a congressional investigation into its China clinical trials at People's Liberation Army hospitals and Xinjiang facilities amid biotechnology competition concerns.