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Hierarchical AI Multi-Agent Fundamental Investing: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a multi-agent, AI-driven framework for fundamental investing that integrates macro indicators, industry-level and firm-specific information to construct optimized equity portfolios. The architecture comprises: (i) a Macro agent that dynamically screens and weights sectors based on evolving economic indicators and industry performance; (ii) four firm-level agents -- Fundamental, Technical, Report, and News -- that conduct in-depth analyses of individual firms to ensure both breadth and depth of coverage; (iii) a Portfolio agent that uses reinforcement learning to combine the agent outputs into a unified policy to generate the trading strategy; and (iv) a Risk Control agent that adjusts portfolio positions in response to market volatility. We evaluate the system on the constituents by the CSI 300 Index of China's A-share market and find that it consistently outperforms standard benchmarks and a state-of-the-art multi-agent trading system on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control. Our core contribution is a hierarchical multi-agent design that links top-down macro screening with bottom-up fundamental analysis, offering a robust and extensible approach to factor-based portfolio construction.


Cost Minimization for Space-Air-Ground Integrated Multi-Access Edge Computing Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Space-air-ground integrated multi-access edge computing (SAGIN-MEC) provides a promising solution for the rapidly developing low-altitude economy (LAE) to deliver flexible and wide-area computing services. However, fully realizing the potential of SAGIN-MEC in the LAE presents significant challenges, including coordinating decisions across heterogeneous nodes with different roles, modeling complex factors such as mobility and network variability, and handling real-time decision-making under partially observable environment with hybrid variables. To address these challenges, we first present a hierarchical SAGIN-MEC architecture that enables the coordination between user devices (UDs), uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), and satellites. Then, we formulate a UD cost minimization optimization problem (UCMOP) to minimize the UD cost by jointly optimizing the task offloading ratio, UAV trajectory planning, computing resource allocation, and UD association. We show that the UCMOP is an NP-hard problem. To overcome this challenge, we propose a multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG)-convex optimization and coalitional game (MADDPG-COCG) algorithm. Specifically, we employ the MADDPG algorithm to optimize the continuous temporal decisions for heterogeneous nodes in the partially observable SAGIN-MEC system. Moreover, we propose a convex optimization and coalitional game (COCG) method to enhance the conventional MADDPG by deterministically handling the hybrid and varying-dimensional decisions. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed MADDPG-COCG algorithm significantly enhances the user-centric performances in terms of the aggregated UD cost, task completion delay, and UD energy consumption, with a slight increase in UAV energy consumption, compared to the benchmark algorithms. Moreover, the MADDPG-COCG algorithm shows superior convergence stability and scalability.


A Dynamic Knowledge Distillation Method Based on the Gompertz Curve

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a novel dynamic knowledge distillation framework, Gompertz-CNN, which integrates the Gompertz growth model into the training process to address the limitations of traditional knowledge distillation. Conventional methods often fail to capture the evolving cognitive capacity of student models, leading to suboptimal knowledge transfer. To overcome this, we propose a stage-aware distillation strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of distillation loss based on the Gompertz curve, reflecting the student's learning progression: slow initial growth, rapid mid-phase improvement, and late-stage saturation. Our framework incorporates Wasserstein distance to measure feature-level discrepancies and gradient matching to align backward propagation behaviors between teacher and student models. These components are unified under a multi-loss objective, where the Gompertz curve modulates the influence of distillation losses over time. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 using various teacher-student architectures (e.g., ResNet50 and MobileNet_v2) demonstrate that Gompertz-CNN consistently outperforms traditional distillation methods, achieving up to 8% and 4% accuracy gains on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, respectively.


Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.


Robust Preference Alignment via Directional Neighborhood Consensus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aligning large language models with human preferences is critical for creating reliable and controllable AI systems. A human preference can be visualized as a high-dimensional vector where different directions represent trade-offs between desired attributes (e.g., helpfulness vs. verbosity). Yet, because the training data often reflects dominant, average preferences, LLMs tend to perform well on common requests but fall short in specific, individual needs. This mismatch creates a preference coverage gap. Existing methods often address this through costly retraining, which may not be generalized to the full spectrum of diverse preferences. This brittleness means that when a user's request reflects a nuanced preference deviating from the training data's central tendency, model performance can degrade unpredictably. To address this challenge, we introduce Robust Preference Selection (RPS), a post-hoc, training-free method by leveraging directional neighborhood consensus. Instead of forcing a model to generate a response from a single, highly specific preference, RPS samples multiple responses from a local neighborhood of related preferences to create a superior candidate pool. It then selects the response that best aligns with the user's original intent. We provide a theoretical framework showing our neighborhood generation strategy is provably superior to a strong baseline that also samples multiple candidates. Comprehensive experiments across three distinct alignment paradigms (DPA, DPO, and SFT) demonstrate that RPS consistently improves robustness against this baseline, achieving win rates of up to 69% on challenging preferences from under-represented regions of the space without any model retraining. Our work presents a practical, theoretically-grounded solution for enhancing the reliability of preference-aligned models.


TENDE: Transfer Entropy Neural Diffusion Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transfer entropy measures directed information flow in time series, and it has become a fundamental quantity in applications spanning neuroscience, finance, and complex systems analysis. However, existing estimation methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality, require restrictive distributional assumptions, or need exponentially large datasets for reliable convergence. We address these limitations in the literature by proposing TENDE (Transfer Entropy Neural Diffusion Estimation), a novel approach that leverages score-based diffusion models to estimate transfer entropy through conditional mutual information. By learning score functions of the relevant conditional distributions, TENDE provides flexible, scalable estimation while making minimal assumptions about the underlying data-generating process. We demonstrate superior accuracy and robustness compared to existing neural estimators and other state-of-the-art approaches across synthetic benchmarks and real data.


Towards Self-Evolving Benchmarks: Synthesizing Agent Trajectories via Test-Time Exploration under Validate-by-Reproduce Paradigm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and agent system designs have empowered agents with unprecedented levels of capability. However, existing agent benchmarks are showing a trend of rapid ceiling-hitting by newly developed agents, making it difficult to meet the demands for evaluating agent abilities. To address this problem, we propose the Trajectory-based V alidated-by-Reproducing Agent-benchmark Complexity Evolution (TRACE) framework. This framework takes an original task from an existing benchmark and encourages agents to freely explore and evolve it into a new task with higher difficulty while recording validatable agent trajectories. The framework proceeds in three stages: (1) evolutionary proposal mining, which provides task evolution proposals through preliminary exploration and divergent thinking; (2) problem formation and free exploration, where proposals are conceptualized into feasible problem candidates and the agents then explore them freely while recording their execution trajectories; and (3) multi-level validation, which ensures that the evolved tasks are accompanied by validatable and reproducible trajectories. Experiments on the GAIA benchmark demonstrate that the TRACE framework consistently enhances task complexity while improving the reliability of correctness through validatable execution trajectories. In addition, our framework can successfully adapt to and improve reasoning datasets represented by AIME-2024. This work marks a paradigm shift from static, manually curated benchmarks to dynamic, self-evolving evaluation systems, providing a sustainable and challenging runway for agent development.


Influence Guided Context Selection for Effective Retrieval-Augmented Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) addresses large language model (LLM) hallucinations by grounding responses in external knowledge, but its effectiveness is compromised by poor-quality retrieved contexts containing irrelevant or noisy information. While existing approaches attempt to improve performance through context selection based on predefined context quality assessment metrics, they show limited gains over standard RAG. We attribute this limitation to their failure in holistically utilizing available information (query, context list, and generator) for comprehensive quality assessment. Inspired by recent advances in data selection, we reconceptualize context quality assessment as an inference-time data valuation problem and introduce the Contextual Influence Value (CI value). This novel metric quantifies context quality by measuring the performance degradation when removing each context from the list, effectively integrating query-aware relevance, list-aware uniqueness, and generator-aware alignment. Moreover, CI value eliminates complex selection hyperparameter tuning by simply retaining contexts with positive CI values. To address practical challenges of label dependency and computational overhead, we develop a parameterized surrogate model for CI value prediction during inference. The model employs a hierarchical architecture that captures both local query-context relevance and global inter-context interactions, trained through oracle CI value supervision and end-to-end generator feedback. Extensive experiments across 8 NLP tasks and multiple LLMs demonstrate that our context selection method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, effectively filtering poor-quality contexts while preserving critical information. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/RAG-CSM.


DRIFT: Dynamic Rule-Based Defense with Injection Isolation for Securing LLM Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly central to agentic systems due to their strong reasoning and planning capabilities. By interacting with external environments through predefined tools, these agents can carry out complex user tasks. Nonetheless, this interaction also introduces the risk of prompt injection attacks, where malicious inputs from external sources can mislead the agent's behavior, potentially resulting in economic loss, privacy leakage, or system compromise. System-level defenses have recently shown promise by enforcing static or predefined policies, but they still face two key challenges: the ability to dynamically update security rules and the need for memory stream isolation. To address these challenges, we propose DRIFT, a Dynamic Rule-based Isolation Framework for Trustworthy agentic systems, which enforces both control- and data-level constraints. A Secure Planner first constructs a minimal function trajectory and a JSON-schema-style parameter checklist for each function node based on the user query. A Dynamic Validator then monitors deviations from the original plan, assessing whether changes comply with privilege limitations and the user's intent. Finally, an Injection Isolator detects and masks any instructions that may conflict with the user query from the memory stream to mitigate long-term risks. We empirically validate the effectiveness of DRIFT on the AgentDojo and ASB benchmark, demonstrating its strong security performance while maintaining high utility across diverse models, showcasing both its robustness and adaptability. The code is released at https://github.com/SaFoLab-WISC/DRIFT.


Inference-time Alignment in Continuous Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aligning large language models with human feedback at inference time has received increasing attention due to its flexibility. Existing methods rely on generating multiple responses from the base policy for search using a reward model, which can be considered as searching in a discrete response space. However, these methods struggle to explore informative candidates when the base policy is weak or the candidate set is small, resulting in limited effectiveness. In this paper, to address this problem, we propose Simple Energy Adaptation ($\textbf{SEA}$), a simple yet effective algorithm for inference-time alignment. In contrast to expensive search over the discrete space, SEA directly adapts original responses from the base policy toward the optimal one via gradient-based sampling in continuous latent space. Specifically, SEA formulates inference as an iterative optimization procedure on an energy function over actions in the continuous space defined by the optimal policy, enabling simple and effective alignment. For instance, despite its simplicity, SEA outperforms the second-best baseline with a relative improvement of up to $ \textbf{77.51%}$ on AdvBench and $\textbf{16.36%}$ on MATH. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yuanyige/sea