AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge not captured by data, long horizon context, and reasoning grounded in the physical world. This gap has motivated growing efforts to design collaborative frameworks that combine the complementary strengths of humans and AI. This work advances this vision by identifying the fundamental principles of Human AI collaboration within uncertainty quantification, a key component of reliable decision making. We introduce Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification, a framework that formalizes how an AI model can refine a human expert's proposed prediction set with two goals: avoiding counterfactual harm, ensuring the AI does not degrade correct human judgments, and complementarity, enabling recovery of correct outcomes the human missed. At the population level, we show that the optimal collaborative prediction set follows an intuitive two threshold structure over a single score function, extending a classical result in conformal prediction. Building on this insight, we develop practical offline and online calibration algorithms with provable distribution free finite sample guarantees. The online method adapts to distribution shifts, including human behavior evolving through interaction with AI, a phenomenon we call Human to AI Adaptation. Experiments across image classification, regression, and text based medical decision making show that collaborative prediction sets consistently outperform either agent alone, achieving higher coverage and smaller set sizes across various conditions.

In this work, we study out-of-distribution generalization in meta-learning from an information-theoretic perspective. We focus on two scenarios: (i) when the testing environment mismatches the training environment, and (ii) when the training environment is broader than the testing environment. The first corresponds to the standard distribution mismatch setting, while the second reflects a broad-to-narrow training scenario. We further formalize the generalization problem in meta-reinforcement learning and establish corresponding generalization bounds. Finally, we analyze the generalization performance of a gradient-based meta-reinforcement learning algorithm.

Centered kernel alignment (CKA) is a popular metric for comparing representations, determining equivalence of networks, and neuroscience research. However, CKA does not account for the underlying manifold and relies on numerous heuristics that cause it to behave differently at different scales of data. In this work, we propose Manifold approximated Kernel Alignment (MKA), which incorporates manifold geometry into the alignment task. We derive a theoretical framework for MKA. We perform empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world examples to characterize and compare MKA to its contemporaries. Our findings suggest that manifold-aware kernel alignment provides a more robust foundation for measuring representations, with potential applications in representation learning.

Self-induced stochastic resonance (SISR) is the emergence of coherent oscillations in slow-fast excitable systems driven solely by noise, without external periodic forcing or proximity to a bifurcation. This work presents a physics-informed machine learning framework for modeling and predicting SISR in the stochastic FitzHugh-Nagumo neuron. We embed the governing stochastic differential equations and SISR-asymptotic timescale-matching constraints directly into a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) based on a Noise-Augmented State Predictor architecture. The composite loss integrates data fidelity, dynamical residuals, and barrier-based physical constraints derived from Kramers' escape theory. The trained PINN accurately predicts the dependence of spike-train coherence on noise intensity, excitability, and timescale separation, matching results from direct stochastic simulations with substantial improvements in accuracy and generalization compared with purely data-driven methods, while requiring significantly less computation. The framework provides a data-efficient and interpretable surrogate model for simulating and analyzing noise-induced coherence in multiscale stochastic systems.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) enables the study of cellular heterogeneity. Y et, clustering accuracy, and with it downstream analyses based on cell labels, remain challenging due to measurement noise and biological variability. In standard latent spaces (e.g., obtained through PCA), data from different cell types can be projected close together, making accurate clustering difficult. We introduce a latent plug-and-play diffusion framework that separates the observation and de-noising space. This separation is operationalized through a novel Gibbs sampling procedure: the learned diffusion prior is applied in a low-dimensional latent space to perform denoising, while to steer this process, noise is reintroduced into the original high-dimensional observation space. This unique "input-space steering" ensures the denoising trajectory remains faithful to the original data structure. Our approach offers three key advantages: (1) adaptive noise handling via a tunable balance between prior and observed data; (2) uncertainty quantification through principled uncertainty estimates for downstream analysis; and (3) generalizable denoising by leveraging clean reference data to denoise noisier datasets, and via averaging, improve quality beyond the training set. We evaluate robustness on both synthetic and real single-cell genomics data. Our method improves clustering accuracy on synthetic data across varied noise levels and dataset shifts. On real-world single-cell data, our method demonstrates improved biological coherence in the resulting cell clusters, with cluster boundaries that better align with known cell type markers and developmental trajectories. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized biomedical research by enabling high-resolution profiling of cellular heterogeneity (Park et al., 2020; Miragaia et al., 2019), with large-scale initiatives like the Human Cell Atlas providing foundational references for cell type annotation (Regev et al., 2017; Lindeboom et al., 2021; Elmentaite et al., 2022; Stuart et al., 2019; Lopez et al., 2018).

The Hierarchical Reasoning Model (HRM) has impressive reasoning abilities given its small size, but has only been applied to supervised, static, fully-observable problems. One of HRM's strengths is its ability to adapt its computational effort to the difficulty of the problem. However, in its current form it cannot integrate and reuse computation from previous time-steps if the problem is dynamic, uncertain or partially observable, or be applied where the correct action is undefined, characteristics of many real-world problems. This paper presents HRM-Agent, a variant of HRM trained using only reinforcement learning. We show that HRM can learn to navigate to goals in dynamic and uncertain maze environments. Recent work suggests that HRM's reasoning abilities stem from its recurrent inference process. We explore the dynamics of the recurrent inference process and find evidence that it is successfully reusing computation from earlier environment time-steps.

The Synthetic Control method (SC) has become a valuable tool for estimating causal effects. Originally designed for single-treated unit scenarios, it has recently found applications in high-dimensional disaggregated settings with multiple treated units. However, challenges in practical implementation and computational efficiency arise in such scenarios. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel approach that integrates the Multivariate Square-root Lasso method into the synthetic control framework. We rigorously establish the estimation error bounds for fitting the Synthetic Control weights using Multivariate Square-root Lasso, accommodating high-dimensionality and time series dependencies. Additionally, we quantify the estimation error for the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method offers superior computational efficiency without compromising estimation accuracy. We apply our method to assess the causal impact of COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders on the monthly unemployment rate in the United States at the county level.

Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a model-free framework using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through uncertainty, the approach enables generalizable inference across tasks including generative inference, causal discovery, anomaly detection, and time series forecasting. It emphasizes traceability, interpretability, and data-driven decision making, offering a unified, human-understandable framework for machine learning, and achieves at or near state-of-the-art performance across most common machine learning tasks. The mathematical foundations create a ``physics'' of information, which enable these techniques to apply effectively to a wide variety of complex data types, including missing data. Empirical results indicate that this may be a viable alternative path to neural networks with regard to scalable machine learning and artificial intelligence that can maintain human understandability of the underlying mechanics.

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In real-world scenarios, observed variables may be affected by multiple latent variables simultaneously, which, generally speaking, cannot be handled by these methods. In this paper, we consider the linear, non-Gaussian case, and make use of the joint higher-order cumulant matrix of the observed variables constructed in a specific way. We show that, surprisingly, causal asymmetry between two observed variables can be directly seen from the rank deficiency properties of such higher-order cumulant matrices, even in the presence of an arbitrary number of latent confounders. Identifiability results are established, and the corresponding identification methods do not even involve iterative procedures. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and asymptotic correctness of our proposed method.

Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs), widely adopted across U.S. state assessment systems, employ independent quantile regression followed by post-hoc correction using an isotonic projection method (\texttt{isotonize=TRUE} in the \texttt{SGP} R package) to address quantile crossing. We demonstrate this approach contains a fundamental methodological inconsistency: interpolation between independently-estimated, potentially crossed quantiles requires monotonicity, yet the post-hoc correction alters estimates in ways that may violate the quantile property $P(Y \leq \hat{Q}_τ(Y|X) \mid X) = τ$. We term this the \emph{interpolation paradox}. While theoretically sound constrained joint quantile regression (CJQR) eliminates crossing by enforcing non-crossing constraints during optimization, we analyze its computational complexity (often scaling poorly, e.g., $\mathcal{O}((qn)^3)$ for standard LP solvers) rendering it intractable for large-scale educational data ($n > 100{,}000$). We examine the SGP package's switch to the Frisch-Newton interior point method (\texttt{rq.method.for.large.n="fn"}) for large $N$, noting that while efficient for \emph{independent} QR, it doesn't resolve the joint problem's complexity or the paradox. We propose neural network-based multi-quantile regression (NNQR) with shared hidden layers as a practical alternative. Leveraging the convexity of the composite pinball loss, SGD-based optimization used in NN training can reliably approach the global optimum, offering scalability ($O(n)$) and implicitly reducing crossing. Our empirical analysis shows independent QR yields crossing, while both CJQR and NNQR enforce monotonicity. NNQR emerges as a viable, scalable alternative for operational SGP systems, aligning theoretical validity with computational feasibility.