Industry
A Bayesian Model for Multi-stage Censoring
Sadhuka, Shuvom, Lin, Sophia, Berger, Bonnie, Pierson, Emma
Many sequential decision settings in healthcare feature funnel structures characterized by a series of stages, such as screenings or evaluations, where the number of patients who advance to each stage progressively decreases and decisions become increasingly costly. For example, an oncologist may first conduct a breast exam, followed by a mammogram for patients with concerning exams, followed by a biopsy for patients with concerning mammograms. A key challenge is that the ground truth outcome, such as the biopsy result, is only revealed at the end of this funnel. The selective censoring of the ground truth can introduce statistical biases in risk estimation, especially in underserved patient groups, whose outcomes are more frequently censored. We develop a Bayesian model for funnel decision structures, drawing from prior work on selective labels and censoring. We first show in synthetic settings that our model is able to recover the true parameters and predict outcomes for censored patients more accurately than baselines. We then apply our model to a dataset of emergency department visits, where in-hospital mortality is observed only for those who are admitted to either the hospital or ICU. We find that there are gender-based differences in hospital and ICU admissions. In particular, our model estimates that the mortality risk threshold to admit women to the ICU is higher for women (5.1%) than for men (4.5%).
Beyond Superficial Forgetting: Thorough Unlearning through Knowledge Density Estimation and Block Re-insertion
Guo, Feng, Wen, Yuntao, Gao, Shen, Zhang, Junshuo, Shang, Shuo
Machine unlearning, which selectively removes harmful knowledge from a pre-trained model without retraining from scratch, is crucial for addressing privacy, regulatory compliance, and ethical concerns in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing unlearning methods often struggle to thoroughly remove harmful knowledge, leaving residual harmful knowledge that can be easily recovered. To address these limitations, we propose Knowledge Density-Guided Unlearning via Blocks Reinsertion (KUnBR), a novel approach that first identifies layers with rich harmful knowledge and then thoroughly eliminates the harmful knowledge via re-insertion strategy. Our method introduces knowledge density estimation to quantify and locate layers containing the most harmful knowledge, enabling precise unlearning. Additionally, we design a layer re-insertion strategy that extracts and re-inserts harmful knowledge-rich layers into the original LLM, bypassing gradient obstruction caused by cover layers and ensuring effective gradient propagation during unlearning. Extensive experiments conducted on several unlearning and general capability benchmarks demonstrate that KUnBR achieves state-of-the-art forgetting performance while maintaining model utility.
Inferring response times of perceptual decisions with Poisson variational autoencoders
Johnson, Hayden R., Krouglova, Anastasia N., Vafaii, Hadi, Yates, Jacob L., Gonรงalves, Pedro J.
Many properties of perceptual decision making are well-modeled by deep neural networks. However, such architectures typically treat decisions as instantaneous readouts, overlooking the temporal dynamics of the decision process. We present an image-computable model of perceptual decision making in which choices and response times arise from efficient sensory encoding and Bayesian decoding of neural spiking activity. We use a Poisson variational autoencoder to learn unsupervised representations of visual stimuli in a population of rate-coded neurons, modeled as independent homogeneous Poisson processes. A task-optimized decoder then continually infers an approximate posterior over actions conditioned on incoming spiking activity. Combining these components with an entropy-based stopping rule yields a principled and image-computable model of perceptual decisions capable of generating trial-by-trial patterns of choices and response times. Applied to MNIST digit classification, the model reproduces key empirical signatures of perceptual decision making, including stochastic variability, right-skewed response time distributions, logarithmic scaling of response times with the number of alternatives (Hick's law), and speed-accuracy trade-offs.
Let the Experts Speak: Improving Survival Prediction & Calibration via Mixture-of-Experts Heads
Morrill, Todd, Puli, Aahlad, Megjhani, Murad, Park, Soojin, Zemel, Richard
Deep mixture-of-experts models have attracted a lot of attention for survival analysis problems, particularly for their ability to cluster similar patients together. In practice, grouping often comes at the expense of key metrics such as calibration error and predictive accuracy. This is due to the restrictive inductive bias that mixture-of-experts imposes, that predictions for individual patients must look like predictions for the group they're assigned to. Might we be able to discover patient group structure, where it exists, while improving calibration and predictive accuracy? In this work, we introduce several discrete-time deep mixture-of-experts (MoE)-based architectures for survival analysis problems, one of which achieves all desiderata: clustering, calibration, and predictive accuracy. We show that a key differentiator between this array of MoEs is how expressive their experts are. We find that more expressive experts that tailor predictions per patient outperform experts that rely on fixed group prototypes.
How do data owners say no? A case study of data consent mechanisms in web-scraped vision-language AI training datasets
Lee, Chung Peng, Hong, Rachel, Jiang, Harry H., Plotnik, Aster, Agnew, William, Morgenstern, Jamie
The internet has become the main source of data to train modern text-to-image or vision-language models, yet it is increasingly unclear whether web-scale data collection practices for training AI systems adequately respect data owners' wishes. Ignoring the owner's indication of consent around data usage not only raises ethical concerns but also has recently been elevated into lawsuits around copyright infringement cases. In this work, we aim to reveal information about data owners' consent to AI scraping and training, and study how it's expressed in DataComp, a popular dataset of 12.8 billion text-image pairs. We examine both the sample-level information, including the copyright notice, watermarking, and metadata, and the web-domain-level information, such as a site's Terms of Service (ToS) and Robots Exclusion Protocol. We estimate at least 122M of samples exhibit some indication of copyright notice in CommonPool, and find that 60\% of the samples in the top 50 domains come from websites with ToS that prohibit scraping. Furthermore, we estimate 9-13\% with 95\% confidence interval of samples from CommonPool to contain watermarks, where existing watermark detection methods fail to capture them in high fidelity. Our holistic methods and findings show that data owners rely on various channels to convey data consent, of which current AI data collection pipelines do not entirely respect. These findings highlight the limitations of the current dataset curation/release practice and the need for a unified data consent framework taking AI purposes into consideration.
RELEAP: Reinforcement-Enhanced Label-Efficient Active Phenotyping for Electronic Health Records
Yang, Yang, Pollak, Kathryn I., Chakraborty, Bibhas, Liu, Molei, Zhou, Doudou, Hong, Chuan
Objective: Electronic health record (EHR) phenotyping often relies on noisy proxy labels, which undermine the reliability of downstream risk prediction. Active learning can reduce annotation costs, but most rely on fixed heuristics and do not ensure that phenotype refinement improves prediction performance. Our goal was to develop a framework that directly uses downstream prediction performance as feedback to guide phenotype correction and sample selection under constrained labeling budgets. Materials and Methods: We propose Reinforcement-Enhanced Label-Efficient Active Phenotyping (RELEAP), a reinforcement learning-based active learning framework. RELEAP adaptively integrates multiple querying strategies and, unlike prior methods, updates its policy based on feedback from downstream models. We evaluated RELEAP on a de-identified Duke University Health System (DUHS) cohort (2014-2024) for incident lung cancer risk prediction, using logistic regression and penalized Cox survival models. Performance was benchmarked against noisy-label baselines and single-strategy active learning. Results: RELEAP consistently outperformed all baselines. Logistic AUC increased from 0.774 to 0.805 and survival C-index from 0.718 to 0.752. Using downstream performance as feedback, RELEAP produced smoother and more stable gains than heuristic methods under the same labeling budget. Discussion: By linking phenotype refinement to prediction outcomes, RELEAP learns which samples most improve downstream discrimination and calibration, offering a more principled alternative to fixed active learning rules. Conclusion: RELEAP optimizes phenotype correction through downstream feedback, offering a scalable, label-efficient paradigm that reduces manual chart review and enhances the reliability of EHR-based risk prediction.
A Diffusion Model to Shrink Proteins While Maintaining Their Function
Baron, Ethan, Amin, Alan N., Weitzman, Ruben, Marks, Debora, Wilson, Andrew Gordon
Many proteins useful in modern medicine or bioengineering are challenging to make in the lab, fuse with other proteins in cells, or deliver to tissues in the body, because their sequences are too long. Shortening these sequences typically involves costly, time-consuming experimental campaigns. Ideally, we could instead use modern models of massive databases of sequences from nature to learn how to propose shrunken proteins that resemble sequences found in nature. Unfortunately, these models struggle to efficiently search the combinatorial space of all deletions, and are not trained with inductive biases to learn how to delete. To address this gap, we propose SCISOR, a novel discrete diffusion model that deletes letters from sequences to generate protein samples that resemble those found in nature. To do so, SCISOR trains a de-noiser to reverse a forward noising process that adds random insertions to natural sequences. As a generative model, SCISOR fits evolutionary sequence data competitively with previous large models. In evaluation, SCISOR achieves state-of-the-art predictions of the functional effects of deletions on ProteinGym. Finally, we use the SCISOR de-noiser to shrink long protein sequences, and show that its suggested deletions result in significantly more realistic proteins and more often preserve functional motifs than previous models of evolutionary sequences.
Provable Benefit of Curriculum in Transformer Tree-Reasoning Post-Training
Bu, Dake, Huang, Wei, Han, Andi, Nitanda, Atsushi, Wong, Hau-San, Zhang, Qingfu, Suzuki, Taiji
Recent curriculum techniques in the post-training stage of LLMs have been widely observed to outperform non-curriculum approaches in enhancing reasoning performance, yet a principled understanding of why and to what extent they work remains elusive. To address this gap, we develop a theoretical framework grounded in the intuition that progressively learning through manageable steps is more efficient than directly tackling a hard reasoning task, provided each stage stays within the model's effective competence. Under mild complexity conditions linking consecutive curriculum stages, we show that curriculum post-training avoids the exponential complexity bottleneck. To substantiate this result, drawing insights from the Chain-of-Thoughts (CoTs) solving mathematical problems such as Countdown and parity, we model CoT generation as a states-conditioned autoregressive reasoning tree, define a uniform-branching base model to capture pretrained behavior, and formalize curriculum stages as either depth-increasing (longer reasoning chains) or hint-decreasing (shorter prefixes) subtasks. Our analysis shows that, under outcome-only reward signals, reinforcement learning finetuning achieves high accuracy with polynomial sample complexity, whereas direct learning suffers from an exponential bottleneck. We further establish analogous guarantees for test-time scaling, where curriculum-aware querying reduces both reward oracle calls and sampling cost from exponential to polynomial order.
The Value of Personalized Recommendations: Evidence from Netflix
Zielnicki, Kevin, Aridor, Guy, Bibaut, Aurรฉlien, Tran, Allen, Chou, Winston, Kallus, Nathan
Personalized recommendation systems shape much of user choice online, yet their targeted nature makes separating out the value of recommendation and the underlying goods challenging. We build a discrete choice model that embeds recommendation-induced utility, low-rank heterogeneity, and flexible state dependence and apply the model to viewership data at Netflix. We exploit idiosyncratic variation introduced by the recommendation algorithm to identify and separately value these components as well as to recover model-free diversion ratios that we can use to validate our structural model. We use the model to evaluate counterfactuals that quantify the incremental engagement generated by personalized recommendations. First, we show that replacing the current recommender system with a matrix factorization or popularity-based algorithm would lead to 4% and 12% reduction in engagement, respectively, and decreased consumption diversity. Second, most of the consumption increase from recommendations comes from effective targeting, not mechanical exposure, with the largest gains for mid-popularity goods (as opposed to broadly appealing or very niche goods).
Do LLMs Feel? Teaching Emotion Recognition with Prompts, Retrieval, and Curriculum Learning
Li, Xinran, Liu, Yu, Qiao, Jiaqi, Xu, Xiujuan
Emotion Recognition in Conversation (ERC) is a crucial task for understanding human emotions and enabling natural human-computer interaction. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great potential in this field, their ability to capture the intrinsic connections between explicit and implicit emotions remains limited. We propose a novel ERC training framework, PRC-Emo, which integrates Prompt engineering, demonstration Retrieval, and Curriculum learning, with the goal of exploring whether LLMs can effectively perceive emotions in conversational contexts. Specifically, we design emotion-sensitive prompt templates based on both explicit and implicit emotional cues to better guide the model in understanding the speaker's psychological states. We construct the first dedicated demonstration retrieval repository for ERC, which includes training samples from widely used datasets, as well as high-quality dialogue examples generated by LLMs and manually verified. Moreover, we introduce a curriculum learning strategy into the LoRA fine-tuning process, incorporating weighted emotional shifts between same-speaker and different-speaker utterances to assign difficulty levels to dialogue samples, which are then organized in an easy-to-hard training sequence. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets -- IEMOCAP and MELD -- show that our method achieves new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of our approach in improving LLM-based emotional understanding.