Almost all scientific data have uncertainties originating from different sources. Gaussian process regression (GPR) models are a natural way to model data with Gaussian-distributed uncertainties. GPR also has the benefit of reducing I/O bandwidth and storage requirements for large scientific simulations. However, the reconstruction from the GPR models suffers from high computation complexity. To make the situation worse, classic approaches for visualizing the data uncertainties, like probabilistic marching cubes, are also computationally very expensive, especially for data of high resolutions. In this paper, we accelerate the level-crossing probability calculation efficiency on GPR models by subdividing the data spatially into a hierarchical data structure and only reconstructing values adaptively in the regions that have a non-zero probability. For each region, leveraging the known GPR kernel and the saved data observations, we propose a novel approach to efficiently calculate an upper bound for the level-crossing probability inside the region and use this upper bound to make the subdivision and reconstruction decisions. We demonstrate that our value occurrence probability estimation is accurate with a low computation cost by experiments that calculate the level-crossing probability fields on different datasets.

Identifying the graphical structure underlying the observed multivariate data is essential in numerous applications. Current methodologies are predominantly confined to deducing a singular graph under the presumption that the observed data are uniform. However, many contexts involve heterogeneous datasets that feature multiple closely related graphs, typically referred to as multiview graphs. Previous research on multiview graph learning promotes edge-based similarity across layers using pairwise or consensus-based regularizers. However, multiview graphs frequently exhibit a shared node-based architecture across different views, such as common hub nodes. Such commonalities can enhance the precision of learning and provide interpretive insight. In this paper, we propose a co-hub node model, positing that different views share a common group of hub nodes. The associated optimization framework is developed by enforcing structured sparsity on the connections of these co-hub nodes. Moreover, we present a theoretical examination of layer identifiability and determine bounds on estimation error. The proposed methodology is validated using both synthetic graph data and fMRI time series data from multiple subjects to discern several closely related graphs.

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. V arious uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other measures. In this paper, we argue that there is no single best measure. Instead, uncertainty quantification should be tailored to the specific application. To this end, we use a flexible family of uncertainty measures that distinguishes between total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty of second-order distributions. These measures can be instantiated with specific loss functions, so-called proper scoring rules, to control their characteristics, and we show that different characteristics are useful for different tasks. In particular, we show that, for the task of selective prediction, the scoring rule should ideally match the task loss. On the other hand, for out-of-distribution detection, our results confirm that mutual information, a widely used measure of epistemic uncertainty, performs best. Furthermore, in an active learning setting, epistemic uncertainty based on zero-one loss is shown to consistently outperform other uncertainty measures.

We prove that a classic sub-Gaussian mixture proposed by Robbins in a stochastic setting actually satisfies a path-wise (deterministic) regret bound. For every path in a natural ``Ville event'' $E_α$, this regret till time $T$ is bounded by $\ln^2(1/α)/V_T + \ln (1/α) + \ln \ln V_T$ up to universal constants, where $V_T$ is a nonnegative, nondecreasing, cumulative variance process. (The bound reduces to $\ln(1/α) + \ln \ln V_T$ if $V_T \geq \ln(1/α)$.) If the data were stochastic, then one can show that $E_α$ has probability at least $1-α$ under a wide class of distributions (eg: sub-Gaussian, symmetric, variance-bounded, etc.). In fact, we show that on the Ville event $E_0$ of probability one, the regret on every path in $E_0$ is eventually bounded by $\ln \ln V_T$ (up to constants). We explain how this work helps bridge the world of adversarial online learning (which usually deals with regret bounds for bounded data), with game-theoretic statistics (which can handle unbounded data, albeit using stochastic assumptions). In short, conditional regret bounds serve as a bridge between stochastic and adversarial betting.

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. To address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system -- SigTIme -- with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (GCRL) mitigates the difficulty of reward design by framing tasks as goal reaching rather than maximizing hand-crafted reward signals. In this setting, the optimal goal-conditioned value function naturally forms a quasimetric, motivating Quasimetric RL (QRL), which constrains value learning to quasimetric mappings and enforces local consistency through discrete, trajectory-based constraints. We propose Eikonal-Constrained Quasimetric RL (Eik-QRL), a continuous-time reformulation of QRL based on the Eikonal Partial Differential Equation (PDE). This PDE-based structure makes Eik-QRL trajectory-free, requiring only sampled states and goals, while improving out-of-distribution generalization. We provide theoretical guarantees for Eik-QRL and identify limitations that arise under complex dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce Eik-Hierarchical QRL (Eik-HiQRL), which integrates Eik-QRL into a hierarchical decomposition. Empirically, Eik-HiQRL achieves state-of-the-art performance in offline goal-conditioned navigation and yields consistent gains over QRL in manipulation tasks, matching temporal-difference methods.

Explainable machine learning techniques have gained increasing attention in engineering applications, especially in aerospace design and analysis, where understanding how input variables influence data-driven models is essential. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) are widely used for interpreting black-box models by showing the average effect of an input variable on the prediction. However, their global sensitivity metric can be misleading when strong interactions are present, as averaging tends to obscure interaction effects. To address this limitation, we propose a global sensitivity metric based on Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves. The method computes the expected feature importance across ICE curves, along with their standard deviation, to more effectively capture the influence of interactions. We provide a mathematical proof demonstrating that the PDP-based sensitivity is a lower bound of the proposed ICE-based metric under truncated orthogonal polynomial expansion. In addition, we introduce an ICE-based correlation value to quantify how interactions modify the relationship between inputs and the output. Comparative evaluations were performed on three cases: a 5-variable analytical function, a 5-variable wind-turbine fatigue problem, and a 9-variable airfoil aerodynamics case, where ICE-based sensitivity was benchmarked against PDP, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Sobol' indices. The results show that ICE-based feature importance provides richer insights than the traditional PDP-based approach, while visual interpretations from PDP, ICE, and SHAP complement one another by offering multiple perspectives.

Diffusion-based samplers -- Score Based Diffusions, Bridge Diffusions and Path Integral Diffusions -- match a target at terminal time, but the real leverage comes from choosing the schedule that governs the intermediate-time dynamics. We develop a path-wise schedule -- selection gramework for Harmonic PID with a time-varying stiffness, exploiting Piece-Wise-Constant(PWC) parametrizations and a simple hierarchical refinement. We introduce schedule-sensitive Quality-of-Sampling (QoS) diagnostics. Assuming a Gaussian-Mixture (GM) target, we retain closed-form Green functions' ration and numerically stable, Neural-Network free oracles for predicted-state maps and score. Experiments in 2D show that QoS driven PWC schedules consistently improve early-exit fidelity, tail accuracy, conditioning of the dynamics, and speciation (label-selection) timing at fixed integration budgets.

Adaptive behavior in volatile environments requires agents to deploy different value-control regimes across latent contexts, but representing separate preferences, policy biases, and action confidence for every situation is intractable. We introduce value profiles: a small set of reusable bundles of value-related parameters--outcome preferences, policy priors, and policy precision--that are assigned to hidden states in the generative model. As posterior beliefs over states evolve trial-by-trial, effective control parameters emerge through belief-weighted mixing, enabling state-conditional strategy recruitment without maintaining independent parameters for each situation. We evaluate this framework in probabilistic reversal learning, comparing static precision, entropy-coupled dynamic precision, and profile-based models using cross-validated log-likelihood and information criteria. Model comparison using AIC favors the profile-based model over simpler alternatives ( 100-point differences), with consistent parameter recovery demonstrating structural identifiability even when context must be inferred from noisy observations. Model-based inference suggests that, in this task, adaptive control operates primarily through policy prior modulation rather than policy precision modulation, with gradual belief-driven profile recruitment confirming state-conditional rather than merely uncertainty-driven control. Overall, reusable value profiles provide a tractable computational account of belief-conditioned value control in volatile environments, providing a reusable, mode-like representational scheme for behavioral flexibility that yields testable signatures of belief-conditioned control.

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), a popular method for high-dimensional regression, is now used widely for estimating high-dimensional time series models such as the vector autoregression (VAR). Selecting its tuning parameter efficiently and accurately remains a challenge, despite the abundance of available methods for doing so. We propose $\mathsf{autotune}$, a strategy for Lasso to automatically tune itself by optimizing a penalized Gaussian log-likelihood alternately over regression coefficients and noise standard deviation. Using extensive simulation experiments on regression and VAR models, we show that $\mathsf{autotune}$ is faster, and provides better generalization and model selection than established alternatives in low signal-to-noise regimes. In the process, $\mathsf{autotune}$ provides a new estimator of noise standard deviation that can be used for high-dimensional inference, and a new visual diagnostic procedure for checking the sparsity assumption on regression coefficients. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of $\mathsf{autotune}$ on a real-world financial data set. An R package based on C++ is also made publicly available on Github.