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UK launches taskforce to 'break down barriers' for women in technology

BBC News

UK launches taskforce to'break down barriers' for women in technology The government has launched a new taskforce it says will help women enter, stay and lead in the UK tech sector. Led by technology secretary Liz Kendall, it will see female leaders from tech companies and organisations advise the government on how to boost diversity and economic growth in the industry. BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT, recently suggested women accounted for only 22% of those working in IT specialist roles in the UK. Ms Kendall said the Women in Tech group would break down the barriers that still hold too many people back. When women are inspired to take on a role in tech and have a seat at the table, the sector can make more representative decisions, build products that serve everyone, she said.


Quantum oracles give an advantage for identifying classical counterfactuals

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We show that quantum oracles provide an advantage over classical oracles for answering classical counterfactual questions in causal models, or equivalently, for identifying unknown causal parameters such as distributions over functional dependences. In structural causal models with discrete classical variables, observational data and even ideal interventions generally fail to answer all counterfactual questions, since different causal parameters can reproduce the same observational and interventional data while disagreeing on counterfactuals. Using a simple binary example, we demonstrate that if the classical variables of interest are encoded in quantum systems and the causal dependence among them is encoded in a quantum oracle, coherently querying the oracle enables the identification of all causal parameters -- hence all classical counterfactuals. We generalize this to arbitrary finite cardinalities and prove that coherent probing 1) allows the identification of all two-way joint counterfactuals p(Y_x=y, Y_{x'}=y'), which is not possible with any number of queries to a classical oracle, and 2) provides tighter bounds on higher-order multi-way counterfactuals than with a classical oracle. This work can also be viewed as an extension to traditional quantum oracle problems such as Deutsch--Jozsa to identifying more causal parameters beyond just, e.g., whether a function is constant or balanced. Finally, we raise the question of whether this quantum advantage relies on uniquely non-classical features like contextuality. We provide some evidence against this by showing that in the binary case, oracles in some classically-explainable theories like Spekkens' toy theory also give rise to a counterfactual identifiability advantage over strictly classical oracles.


Advancing Machine Learning Optimization of Chiral Photonic Metasurface: Comparative Study of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Approaches

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Chiral photonic metasurfaces provide unique capabilities for tailoring light-matter interactions, which are essential for next-generation photonic devices. Here, we report an advanced optimization framework that combines deep learning and evolutionary algorithms to significantly improve both the design and performance of chiral photonic nanostructures. Building on previous work utilizing a three-layer perceptron reinforced learning and stochastic evolutionary algorithm with decaying changes and mass extinction for chiral photonic optimization, our study introduces a refined pipeline featuring a two-output neural network architecture to reduce the trade-off between high chiral dichroism (CD) and reflectivity. Additionally, we use an improved fitness function, and efficient data augmentation techniques. A comparative analysis between a neural network (NN)-based approach and a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented for structures of different interface pattern depth, material combinations, and geometric complexity. We demonstrate a twice higher CD and the impact of both the corner number and the refractive index contrast at the example of a GaP/air and PMMA/air metasurface as a result of superior optimization performance. Additionally, a substantial increase in the number of structures explored within limited computational resources is highlighted, with tailored spectral reflectivity suggested by our electromagnetic simulations, paving the way for chiral mirrors applicable to polarization-selective light-matter interaction studies.


From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model combination is a powerful approach to achieve superior performance with a set of models than by just selecting any single one. We study both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of ensembles of Multi-Frequency Echo State Networks (MFESNs), which have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art macroeconomic time series forecasting results (Ballarin et al., 2024a). Hedge and Follow-the-Leader schemes are discussed, and their online learning guarantees are extended to the case of dependent data. In applications, our proposed Ensemble Echo State Networks show significantly improved predictive performance compared to individual MFESN models.


Machine learning to optimize precision in the analysis of randomized trials: A journey in pre-specified, yet data-adaptive learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Covariate adjustment is an approach to improve the precision of trial analyses by adjusting for baseline variables that are prognostic of the primary endpoint. Motivated by the SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial (2013-2017), we tell our story of developing, evaluating, and implementing a machine learning-based approach for covariate adjustment. We provide the rationale for as well as the practical concerns with such an approach for estimating marginal effects. Using schematics, we illustrate our procedure: targeted machine learning estimation (TMLE) with Adaptive Pre-specification. Briefly, sample-splitting is used to data-adaptively select the combination of estimators of the outcome regression (i.e., the conditional expectation of the outcome given the trial arm and covariates) and known propensity score (i.e., the conditional probability of being randomized to the intervention given the covariates) that minimizes the cross-validated variance estimate and, thereby, maximizes empirical efficiency. We discuss our approach for evaluating finite sample performance with parametric and plasmode simulations, pre-specifying the Statistical Analysis Plan, and unblinding in real-time on video conference with our colleagues from around the world. We present the results from applying our approach in the primary, pre-specified analysis of 8 recently published trials (2022-2024). We conclude with practical recommendations and an invitation to implement our approach in the primary analysis of your next trial.


A Nonparametric Statistics Approach to Feature Selection in Deep Neural Networks with Theoretical Guarantees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper tackles the problem of feature selection in a highly challenging setting: $\mathbb{E}(y | \boldsymbol{x}) = G(\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}_0})$, where $\mathcal{S}_0$ is the set of relevant features and $G$ is an unknown, potentially nonlinear function subject to mild smoothness conditions. Our approach begins with feature selection in deep neural networks, then generalizes the results to H{ö}lder smooth functions by exploiting the strong approximation capabilities of neural networks. Unlike conventional optimization-based deep learning methods, we reformulate neural networks as index models and estimate $\mathcal{S}_0$ using the second-order Stein's formula. This gradient-descent-free strategy guarantees feature selection consistency with a sample size requirement of $n = Ω(p^2)$, where $p$ is the feature dimension. To handle high-dimensional scenarios, we further introduce a screening-and-selection mechanism that achieves nonlinear selection consistency when $n = Ω(s \log p)$, with $s$ representing the sparsity level. Additionally, we refit a neural network on the selected features for prediction and establish performance guarantees under a relaxed sparsity assumption. Extensive simulations and real-data analyses demonstrate the strong performance of our method even in the presence of complex feature interactions.


A Class of Accelerated Fixed-Point-Based Methods with Delayed Inexact Oracles and Its Applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we develop a novel accelerated fixed-point-based framework using delayed inexact oracles to approximate a fixed point of a nonexpansive operator (or equivalently, a root of a co-coercive operator), a central problem in scientific computing. Our approach leverages both Nesterov's acceleration technique and the Krasnosel'skii-Mann (KM) iteration, while accounting for delayed inexact oracles, a key mechanism in asynchronous algorithms. We also introduce a unified approximate error condition for delayed inexact oracles, which can cover various practical scenarios. Under mild conditions and appropriate parameter updates, we establish both $\mathcal{O}(1/k^2)$ non-asymptotic and $o(1/k^2)$ asymptotic convergence rates in expectation for the squared norm of residual. Our rate significantly improves the $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ rates in classical KM-type methods, including their asynchronous variants. We also establish $o(1/k^2)$ almost sure convergence rates and the almost sure convergence of iterates to a solution of the problem. Within our framework, we instantiate three settings for the underlying operator: (i) a deterministic universal delayed oracle; (ii) a stochastic delayed oracle; and (iii) a finite-sum structure with asynchronous updates. For each case, we instantiate our framework to obtain a concrete algorithmic variant for which our convergence results still apply, and whose iteration complexity depends linearly on the maximum delay. Finally, we verify our algorithms and theoretical results through two numerical examples on both matrix game and shallow neural network training problems.


Learning under Distributional Drift: Reproducibility as an Intrinsic Statistical Resource

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical learning under distributional drift remains insufficiently characterized: when each observation alters the data-generating law, classical generalization bounds can collapse. We introduce a new statistical primitive, the reproducibility budget $C_T$, which quantifies a system's finite capacity for statistical reproducibility - the extent to which its sampling process can remain governed by a consistent underlying distribution in the presence of both exogenous change and endogenous feedback. Formally, $C_T$ is defined as the cumulative Fisher-Rao path length of the coupled learner-environment evolution, measuring the total distributional motion accumulated during learning. From this construct we derive a drift-feedback generalization bound of order $O(T^{-1/2} + C_T/T)$, and we prove a matching minimax lower bound showing that this rate is minimax-optimal. Consequently, the results establish a reproducibility speed limit: no algorithm can achieve smaller worst-case generalization error than that imposed by the average Fisher-Rao drift rate $C_T/T$ of the data-generating process. The framework situates exogenous drift, adaptive data analysis, and performative prediction within a common geometric structure, with $C_T$ emerging as the intrinsic quantity measuring distributional motion across these settings.


Policy-Aligned Estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Firms often develop targeting policies to personalize marketing actions and improve incremental profits. Effective targeting depends on accurately separating customers with positive versus negative treatment effects. We propose an approach to estimate the conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) of marketing actions that aligns their estimation with the firm's profit objective. The method recognizes that, for many customers, treatment effects are so extreme that additional accuracy is unlikely to change the recommended actions. However, accuracy matters near the decision boundary, as small errors can alter targeting decisions. By modifying the firm's objective function in the standard profit maximization problem, our method yields a near-optimal targeting policy while simultaneously estimating CATEs. This introduces a new perspective on CATE estimation, reframing it as a problem of profit optimization rather than prediction accuracy. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed method and demonstrate its performance and trade-offs using synthetic data.