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Multivariate Uncertainty Quantification with Tomographic Quantile Forests

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for safe and trustworthy real-world AI deployment. Yet, fully nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions remains challenging for multivariate targets. We propose Tomographic Quantile Forests (TQF), a nonparametric, uncertainty-aware, tree-based regression model for multivariate targets. TQF learns conditional quantiles of directional projections $\mathbf{n}^{\top}\mathbf{y}$ as functions of the input $\mathbf{x}$ and the unit direction $\mathbf{n}$. At inference, it aggregates quantiles across many directions and reconstructs the multivariate conditional distribution by minimizing the sliced Wasserstein distance via an efficient alternating scheme with convex subproblems. Unlike classical directional-quantile approaches that typically produce only convex quantile regions and require training separate models for different directions, TQF covers all directions with a single model without imposing convexity restrictions. We evaluate TQF on synthetic and real-world datasets, and release the source code on GitHub.


DAG Learning from Zero-Inflated Count Data Using Continuous Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We address network structure learning from zero-inflated count data by casting each node as a zero-inflated generalized linear model and optimizing a smooth, score-based objective under a directed acyclic graph constraint. Our Zero-Inflated Continuous Optimization (ZICO) approach uses node-wise likelihoods with canonical links and enforces acyclicity through a differentiable surrogate constraint combined with sparsity regularization. ZICO achieves superior performance with faster runtimes on simulated data. It also performs comparably to or better than common algorithms for reverse engineering gene regulatory networks. ZICO is fully vectorized and mini-batched, enabling learning on larger variable sets with practical runtimes in a wide range of domains.


CauSTream: Causal Spatio-Temporal Representation Learning for Streamflow Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and generalization. Recent causal learning approaches address these issues by integrating domain knowledge, yet they typically rely on fixed causal graphs that fail to adapt to data. We propose CauStream, a unified framework for causal spatiotemporal streamflow forecasting. CauSTream jointly learns (i) a runoff causal graph among meteorological forcings and (ii) a routing graph capturing dynamic dependencies across stations. We further establish identifiability conditions for these causal structures under a nonparametric setting. We evaluate CauSTream on three major U.S. river basins across three forecasting horizons. The model consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, with performance gaps widening at longer forecast windows, indicating stronger generalization to unseen conditions. Beyond forecasting, CauSTream also learns causal graphs that capture relationships among hydrological factors and stations. The inferred structures align closely with established domain knowledge, offering interpretable insights into watershed dynamics. CauSTream offers a principled foundation for causal spatiotemporal modeling, with the potential to extend to a wide range of scientific and environmental applications.


Lifting Biomolecular Data Acquisition

arXiv.org Machine Learning

One strategy to scale up ML-driven science is to increase wet lab experiments' information density. We present a method based on a neural extension of compressed sensing to function space. We measure the activity of multiple different molecules simultaneously, rather than individually. Then, we deconvolute the molecule-activity map during model training. Co-design of wet lab experiments and learning algorithms provably leads to orders-of-magnitude gains in information density. We demonstrate on antibodies and cell therapies.


xtdml: Double Machine Learning Estimation to Static Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects in R

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The double machine learning (DML) method combines the predictive power of machine learning with statistical estimation to conduct inference about the structural parameter of interest. This paper presents the R package `xtdml`, which implements DML methods for partially linear panel regression models with low-dimensional fixed effects, high-dimensional confounding variables, proposed by Clarke and Polselli (2025). The package provides functionalities to: (a) learn nuisance functions with machine learning algorithms from the `mlr3` ecosystem, (b) handle unobserved individual heterogeneity choosing among first-difference transformation, within-group transformation, and correlated random effects, (c) transform the covariates with min-max normalization and polynomial expansion to improve learning performance. We showcase the use of `xtdml` with both simulated and real longitudinal data.


Consensus dimension reduction via multi-view learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dimension reduction methods are a fundamental class of techniques in data analysis, which aim to find a lower-dimensional representation of higher-dimensional data while preserving as much of the original information as possible. These methods are extensively used in practice, including in exploratory data analyses to visualize data--arguably, one of the first and most vital steps in any data analysis (Ray et al., 2021). Notably, in genomics, dimension reduction methods are ubiquitously applied to visualize high-dimensional single-cell RNA sequencing data in two dimensions (Becht et al., 2019). Beyond visualization, dimension reduction methods are also frequently employed to mitigate the curse of dimensionality (Bellman, 1957), engineer new features to improve downstream tasks like prediction (e.g., Massy, 1965), and enable scientific discovery in unsupervised learning settings (Chang et al., 2025). For example, many researchers have used dimension reduction in conjunction with clustering to discover new cell types and cell states (Wu et al., 2021), new cancer subtypes (Northcott et al., 2017), and other substantively-meaningful structure in a variety of domains (Bergen et al., 2019; Traven et al., 2017). Given the widespread use and need for dimension reduction methods, numerous dimension reduction techniques have been developed. Popular techniques include but are not limited to principal component analysis (PCA) (Pearson, 1901; Hotelling, 1933), multidimensional scaling (MDS) (Torgerson, 1952; Kruskal, 1964a), Isomap (Tenenbaum et al., 2000), locally linear embedding (LLE) (Roweis and Saul, 2000), t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) (van der 1


Data Valuation for LLM Fine-Tuning: Efficient Shapley Value Approximation via Language Model Arithmetic

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data is a critical asset for training large language models (LLMs), alongside compute resources and skilled workers. While some training data is publicly available, substantial investment is required to generate proprietary datasets, such as human preference annotations or to curate new ones from existing sources. As larger datasets generally yield better model performance, two natural questions arise. First, how can data owners make informed decisions about curation strategies and data sources investment? Second, how can multiple data owners collaboratively pool their resources to train superior models while fairly distributing the benefits? This problem, data valuation, which is not specific to large language models, has been addressed by the machine learning community through the lens of cooperative game theory, with the Shapley value being the prevalent solution concept. However, computing Shapley values is notoriously expensive for data valuation, typically requiring numerous model retrainings, which can become prohibitive for large machine learning models. In this work, we demonstrate that this computational challenge is dramatically simplified for LLMs trained with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). We show how the specific mathematical structure of DPO enables scalable Shapley value computation. We believe this observation unlocks many applications at the intersection of data valuation and large language models.



Google's NotebookLM introduces Data Tables feature

Engadget

Google's NotebookLM introduces Data Tables feature Google's latest addition to its NotebookLM artificial intelligence research platform is a feature called Data Tables . The tool can collect and synthesize information across multiple sources into a chart that can be exported to Google Sheets. All Pro and Ultra users will have access to the feature today, and Data Tables will roll out to all users over the coming weeks. In practice, Google suggested that Data Tables can be used to organize scattered notes, create price comparison charts or aggregate results from multiple research projects. The example of the interface shows the desired table components requested in natural language statements.


The Truth About the em Avatar /em Movies That No One Wants to Accept

Slate

James Cameron is desperate to convince the world that these movies aren't "cartoons." Enter your email to receive alerts for this author. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. You're already subscribed to the aa_Sam_Adams newsletter. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time.