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Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Earthquake forecasting is a critical task for natural risk management, infrastructure resilience planning, and emergency response operations. For Central Asia, and the Tian Shan mountain system in particular, this problem carries heightened importance due to high tectonic activity, complex geodynamics, and pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of seismic processes. In the applied setting, the goal is not a deterministic forecast of individual events, but a macroscopic forecast of seismicity intensity: estimating the expected number of earthquakes with magnitude M 3.0 on a spatial grid at a weekly horizon. Historically, count data forecasting in fixed spatiotemporal cells has been formulated within the Poisson framework. However, its key assumption--equality of the conditional mean and conditional variance--is systematically violated in real seismological data. Earthquakes exhibit pronounced clustering associated with swarm activity, foreshock-aftershock sequences, and episodes of anomalous activity, resulting in overdispersion in which the variance substantially exceeds the mean. Under these conditions, uncritical application of the Poisson distribution leads to biased uncertainty estimates and, consequently, to underestimation of the risk of extreme scenarios. Despite the widespread adoption of machine learning methods in seismological problems, a substantial portion of existing work remains methodologically vulnerable. On one hand, several approaches apply continuous regression loss functions and metrics (e.g., MSE), ignoring the


SpaceX files for IPO that could make Elon Musk a trillionaire

BBC News

Elon Musk's SpaceX has revealed its plans to go public in the US, allowing people to trade shares in the firm on the stock market. SpaceX makes rockets, offers a satellite internet service called Starlink, and also owns Musk's controversial artificial intelligence (AI) firm xAI. The initial public offering (IPO) on the US stock market is set to be the largest in Wall Street history and could start next month under the ticker symbol SPCX. Because of the shares he will own in SpaceX, the IPO could make billionaire Musk, who is already the world's richest person, a trillionaire. SpaceX values itself at $1.25tn, and Musk's majority ownership of the company means his share could be worth more than $600bn.


A Bipartisan Amendment Would End Police License Plate Tracking Nationwide

WIRED

One line tucked into a federal highway bill would strip funds from cities and states unless they kill their automated plate tracking programs--effectively banning the tech for all but toll collection. US lawmakers plan to introduce an amendment Thursday at a House committee markup hearing that would prohibit any recipient of federal highway funding from using automated license plate readers for any purpose other than tolling--a sweeping restriction that, if adopted, would bring an immediate end to state and local ALPR programs across the United States. The amendment, obtained first by WIRED, is sponsored by Representative Scott Perry, a Pennsylvania Republican and Freedom Caucus member, and Representative Jesรบs "Chuy" Garcรญa, an Illinois progressive whose state has become a flash point in the national fight over ALPR misuse. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee will mark up the underlying bill--a $580 billion, five-year reauthorization of federal surface transportation programs--at 10 am ET on Thursday. Neither Perry nor Garcรญa's offices immediately responded to WIRED's request for comment. The amendment runs a single sentence: "A recipient of assistance under Title 23, United States Code, may not use automated license plate readers for any purpose other than tolling."


Google is bringing new AI-powered ad formats to search

Engadget

Finally, the Google I/O announcement you've been waiting for. With Google transforming search into an AI-driven experience, it was only a matter of time before AI ads entered the fray. As part of its Google I/O week announcements, the company previewed how Gemini-powered, conversational ads will start appearing in search results. Fortunately, all of the new AI-generated ad formats will be labeled as sponsored. Google is testing two new ad types in AI Mode, both powered by an independent AI explainer.


I tried Google's AI glasses. They're what Google Glass always wanted to be

PCWorld

PCWorld reports Google's new Gemini-powered smart glasses prototype represents a refined approach to smart eyewear, manufactured by Samsung with discreet camera and touch controls. The lightweight glasses integrate Google's AI assistant for real-world navigation, search functions, and phone replacement capabilities while maintaining a normal sunglasses appearance. Despite improved public acceptance and seamless design, limitations include basic heads-up display, battery concerns, and sometimes forced AI features. A decade after Google launched Google Glass to spectacular failure, it's trying again. And I think that the world (and I) will be more receptive to what Google's online AI interpreter, Gemini, can do when plugged into your ear.


This is the most underrated sci-fi film franchise of the 21st century

New Scientist

AS A sci-fi fan, you learn not to dwell on the films that could have been. Whether it's Alejandro Jodorowsky's unmade Dune, Guillermo del Toro's cancelled take on At the Mountains of Madness, or the versions of Return of the Jedi that Davids Lynch and Cronenberg could have made, it's best not to torture yourself over cinematic what-ifs. That's why I had given up hope of there being a new instalment of the most underrated sci-fi film franchise of the 21st century so far. Though well received by critics and audiences alike, none of the four films have won Oscars or seem to have made much of an impact on pop culture. But then, earlier this month, we got confirmation that a fifth movie was on the way.


PMOS shows us why many scientific terms need to be renamed

New Scientist

What do researchers of artificial intelligence, medicine and climate change have in common? They could all learn from the story of Rumpelstiltskin. As the fairy tale teaches us, knowing something's "true name", an ancient concept in folklore, gives us power over it. While this may not seem very scientific, psychologists have repeatedly found that your name changes how people perceive you . The same may be true for scientific terms. Take "artificial intelligence": while the technology is undeniably impressive, much of the drama around AI might have been avoided if we used the less grandiose name "machine learning".


This retractable 100W USB-C cable is just 12 and fits in your pocket

PCWorld

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. Ugreen has an awesomely unique USB-C cable with a twist: a retractable design that skirts whatever damage your cables might normally suffer when they're shoved into your pockets or bags. This Ugreen Nexode cable is on sale for $12 at Amazon, down from its usual $17 and matching the lowest price it's ever been. The retractable design is its standout feature, with a 2.4-inch shell that acts as a protective case when fully retracted and able to extend to four preset lengths from 14 to 39 inches. It does all this without sacrificing power--it's rated for 100 watts of throughput, meaning it's just as capable of fast-charging as any 100W cable.


Cuneflow's e-paper writing tablet uses AI to record and transcribe meetings

Engadget

Cuneflow's e-paper writing tablet uses AI to record and transcribe meetings Cuneflow's e-paper writing tablet uses AI to record and transcribe meetings It's designed to automate the busywork of business. I recently reviewed reMarkable's Paper Pure, an e-paper writing tablet designed to be used in business meetings. The company markets itself as an almost analog space to think, pushing against the use of AI and the distractions of the digital age. Think of Cuneflow, then, as a rebuke of that philosophy, as its namesake e-paper writing slate has a built-in voice recorder to transcribe and extract insights from those very same business meetings. Is that a big enough draw for you to plonk down your money when it launches on Kickstarter?


'Perfect Storm': How Trump's Aid Cuts Are Fueling the Ebola Outbreak

WIRED

'Perfect Storm': How Trump's Aid Cuts Are Fueling the Ebola Outbreak One health provider who works on the ground says that basic medical equipment like masks and hand sanitizers are in short supply due to funding cuts. As an Ebola outbreak rages in central and East Africa, public health workers say that the response has been stymied by the Trump administration's cuts to foreign aid and global health organizations. "We are no longer able to get some supplies," Amadou Bocoum, Democratic Republic of Congo country director for the anti-poverty nonprofit CARE, tells WIRED. "Because of that, we are not able to react immediately." Bocoum says that basic medical equipment like masks and hand sanitizers, as well as components necessary for testing, are in short supply due to funding cuts.