Media
The AI Risk Spectrum: From Dangerous Capabilities to Existential Threats
Grey, Markov, Segerie, Charbel-Raphaël
As AI systems become more capable, integrated, and widespread, understanding the associated risks becomes increasingly important. This paper maps the full spectrum of AI risks, from current harms affecting individual users to existential threats that could endanger humanity's survival. We organize these risks into three main causal categories. Misuse risks, which occur when people deliberately use AI for harmful purposes - creating bioweapons, launching cyberattacks, adversarial AI attacks or deploying lethal autonomous weapons. Misalignment risks happen when AI systems pursue outcomes that conflict with human values, irrespective of developer intentions. This includes risks arising through specification gaming (reward hacking), scheming and power-seeking tendencies in pursuit of long-term strategic goals. Systemic risks, which arise when AI integrates into complex social systems in ways that gradually undermine human agency - concentrating power, accelerating political and economic disempowerment, creating overdependence that leads to human enfeeblement, or irreversibly locking in current values curtailing future moral progress. Beyond these core categories, we identify risk amplifiers - competitive pressures, accidents, corporate indifference, and coordination failures - that make all risks more likely and severe. Throughout, we connect today's existing risks and empirically observable AI behaviors to plausible future outcomes, demonstrating how existing trends could escalate to catastrophic outcomes. Our goal is to help readers understand the complete landscape of AI risks. Good futures are possible, but they don't happen by default. Navigating these challenges will require unprecedented coordination, but an extraordinary future awaits if we do.
Understanding Distribution Structure on Calibrated Recommendation Systems
da Silva, Diego Correa, Boaventura, Denis Robson Dantas, Oliveira, Mayki dos Santos, da Silva, Eduardo Ferreira, Pires, Joel Machado, Durão, Frederico Araújo
--Traditional recommender systems aim to generate a recommendation list comprising the most relevant or similar items to the user's profile. These approaches can create recommendation lists that omit item genres from the less prominent areas of a user's profile, thereby undermining the user's experience. T o solve this problem, the calibrated recommendation system provides a guarantee of including less representative areas in the recommended list. The calibrated context works with three distributions. The first is from the user's profile, the second is from the candidate items, and the last is from the recommendation list. These distributions are G-dimensional, where G is the total number of genres in the system. This high dimensionality requires a different evaluation method, considering that traditional recommenders operate in a one-dimensional data space. In this sense, we implement fifteen models that help to understand how these distributions are structured. We evaluate the users' patterns in three datasets from the movie domain. The results indicate that the models of outlier detection provide a better understanding of the structures. The calibrated system creates recommendation lists that act similarly to traditional recommendation lists, allowing users to change their groups of preferences to the same degree. Commonly, traditional recommender systems generate recommendations with miscalibration [1]. Miscalibration means that the recommendation lists do not follow the user preferences distribution, instead suggesting items from user's dominant area of interest. It creates an overspecialized recommendation list in which the items from the less dominant area are overwhelmed. This effect puts the user in a filter bubble or an echo chamber problem [2]. For instance, when a specific area dominates the recommended list, the user likely has few other options to interact with, aside from items within that dominant area. Then, the subsequent lists are recommended, with the dominant area becoming more overspecialized. In recent years, calibrated recommendation systems have attracted attention [3]-[8] from the recommender system community to overcome this issue. This type of system demonstrates the capacity to improve several objectives, such as diversity [3], control of popularity bias [4], item coverage [5], precision [6], and the reduction of miscalibration [7]. To illustrate how calibrated recommendation works, consider a scenario: if a user's preferences distribution indicates Corresponding author is Diego Corr ˆ ea da Silva.
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The Download: clean energy progress, and OpenAI's trilemma
"We were very much impressed. At the same time, we were afraid." Inside the quest to map the universe with mysterious bursts of radio energy When our universe was less than half as old as it is today, a burst of energy that could cook a sun's worth of popcorn shot out from somewhere amid a compact group of galaxies. Some 8 billion years later, radio waves from that burst reached Earth and were captured by a sophisticated low-frequency radio telescope in the Australian outback. The signal, which arrived in June 2022, and lasted for under half a millisecond, is one of a growing class of mysterious radio signals called fast radio bursts. In the last 10 years, astronomers have picked up nearly 5,000 of them.