Many experts believe that in the coming decades, artificial intelligence will change, and perhaps significantly reduce, the demand for human labor in the economy, but there remains much uncertainty about the accuracy of this claim and what to do about it. This paper identifies several ways in which the artificial intelligence community can help society to anticipate and shape such outcomes in a socially beneficial direction. First, different technical aspirations for the field of AI may be associated with different social outcomes, increasing the stakes of decisions made in the AI community. Second, the extent of researchers' efforts to apply AI to different social and economic domains will influence the distribution of cognition between humans and machines in those domains. Third, the AI community can play a key role in initiating a more nuanced and inclusive public discussion of the social and economic possibilities afforded by AI technologies. To pave the way for such dialogue, we suggest a line of research aimed at better understanding the nature, pace, and drivers of progress in AI in order to more effectively anticipate and shape AI's role in society.

The cultural and political implications of modern AI research are not some far off concern, they are things that affect the world in the here and now. From advanced control systems with advanced visualizations and image processing techniques that drive the machines of the modern military to the slow creep of a mechanized workforce, ethical questions surround us. Part of dealing with these ethical questions is not just speculating on what could be but teaching our students how to engage with these ethical questions. We explore the use of science fiction as an appropriate tool to enable AI researchers to help engage students and the public on the current state and potential impacts of AI.

In this paper we describe our ongoing work on SustaInno; an open-source search repository of innovations related to sustainability. SustaInno utilizes advanced information retrieval and text processing methods on technical innovations (initially patent data) to provide its users with practical, applicable, and detailed solutions to their sustainability related challenges. For example, problems like urban heat islands and rainwater waste are of major concern to most urban cities. Using our repository, decision makers can get quite in-depth solutions on practical approaches to address these and many other problems. The novelty of our work stems from three main factors: (1) such a repository does not exist,(2) it is focused on sustainability innovations which are of great importance for the creation of sustainable living environment, and (3) it provides a set of open-source tools and open-access datasets that could accelerate the dissemination of knowledge about sustainability.

This paper uses natural language processing to create the first machine-coded democracy index, which I call Automated Democracy Scores (ADS). The ADS are based on 42 million news articles from 6,043 different sources and cover all independent countries in the 1993-2012 period. Unlike the democracy indices we have today the ADS are replicable and have standard errors small enough to actually distinguish between cases. The ADS are produced with supervised learning. Three approaches are tried: a) a combination of Latent Semantic Analysis and tree-based regression methods; b) a combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and tree-based regression methods; and c) the Wordscores algorithm. The Wordscores algorithm outperforms the alternatives, so it is the one on which the ADS are based. There is a web application where anyone can change the training set and see how the results change: democracy-scores.org

Topic models have achieved significant successes in analyzing large-scale text corpus. In practical applications, we are always confronted with the challenge of model selection, i.e., how to appropriately set the number of topics. Following recent advances in topic model inference via tensor decomposition, we make a first attempt to provide theoretical analysis on model selection in latent Dirichlet allocation. Under mild conditions, we derive the upper bound and lower bound on the number of topics given a text collection of finite size. Experimental results demonstrate that our bounds are accurate and tight. Furthermore, using Gaussian mixture model as an example, we show that our methodology can be easily generalized to model selection analysis for other latent models.

Multiple hypothesis testing is a significant problem in nearly all neuroimaging studies. In order to correct for this phenomena, we require a reliable estimate of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER). The well known Bonferroni correction method, while simple to implement, is quite conservative, and can substantially under-power a study because it ignores dependencies between test statistics. Permutation testing, on the other hand, is an exact, non-parametric method of estimating the FWER for a given $\alpha$-threshold, but for acceptably low thresholds the computational burden can be prohibitive. In this paper, we show that permutation testing in fact amounts to populating the columns of a very large matrix ${\bf P}$. By analyzing the spectrum of this matrix, under certain conditions, we see that ${\bf P}$ has a low-rank plus a low-variance residual decomposition which makes it suitable for highly sub--sampled --- on the order of $0.5\%$ --- matrix completion methods. Based on this observation, we propose a novel permutation testing methodology which offers a large speedup, without sacrificing the fidelity of the estimated FWER. Our evaluations on four different neuroimaging datasets show that a computational speedup factor of roughly $50\times$ can be achieved while recovering the FWER distribution up to very high accuracy. Further, we show that the estimated $\alpha$-threshold is also recovered faithfully, and is stable.

We study the following generalized matrix rank estimation problem: given an $n \times n$ matrix and a constant $c \geq 0$, estimate the number of eigenvalues that are greater than $c$. In the distributed setting, the matrix of interest is the sum of $m$ matrices held by separate machines. We show that any deterministic algorithm solving this problem must communicate $\Omega(n^2)$ bits, which is order-equivalent to transmitting the whole matrix. In contrast, we propose a randomized algorithm that communicates only $\widetilde O(n)$ bits. The upper bound is matched by an $\Omega(n)$ lower bound on the randomized communication complexity. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed algorithm with some numerical experiments.

Suppose that two large, multi-dimensional data sets are each noisy measurements of the same underlying random process, and principle components analysis is performed separately on the data sets to reduce their dimensionality. In some circumstances it may happen that the two lower-dimensional data sets have an inordinately large Procrustean fitting-error between them. The purpose of this manuscript is to quantify this "incommensurability phenomenon." In particular, under specified conditions, the square Procrustean fitting-error of the two normalized lower-dimensional data sets is (asymptotically) a convex combination (via a correlation parameter) of the Hausdorff distance between the projection subspaces and the maximum possible value of the square Procrustean fitting-error for normalized data. We show how this gives rise to the incommensurability phenomenon, and we employ illustrative simulations as well as a real data experiment to explore how the incommensurability phenomenon may have an appreciable impact.

This paper describes the resource- and system-building efforts of an eight-week Johns Hopkins University Human Language Technology Center of Excellence Summer Camp for Applied Language Exploration (SCALE-2009) on Semantically-Informed Machine Translation (SIMT). We describe a new modality/negation (MN) annotation scheme, the creation of a (publicly available) MN lexicon, and two automated MN taggers that we built using the annotation scheme and lexicon. Our annotation scheme isolates three components of modality and negation: a trigger (a word that conveys modality or negation), a target (an action associated with modality or negation) and a holder (an experiencer of modality). We describe how our MN lexicon was semi-automatically produced and we demonstrate that a structure-based MN tagger results in precision around 86% (depending on genre) for tagging of a standard LDC data set. We apply our MN annotation scheme to statistical machine translation using a syntactic framework that supports the inclusion of semantic annotations. Syntactic tags enriched with semantic annotations are assigned to parse trees in the target-language training texts through a process of tree grafting. While the focus of our work is modality and negation, the tree grafting procedure is general and supports other types of semantic information. We exploit this capability by including named entities, produced by a pre-existing tagger, in addition to the MN elements produced by the taggers described in this paper. The resulting system significantly outperformed a linguistically naive baseline model (Hiero), and reached the highest scores yet reported on the NIST 2009 Urdu-English test set. This finding supports the hypothesis that both syntactic and semantic information can improve translation quality.

Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of random variables within some tractable family of graphical models. In this paper, we focus on the class of planar Ising models, for which exact inference is tractable using techniques of statistical physics. Based on these techniques and recent methods for planarity testing and planar embedding, we propose a simple greedy algorithm for learning the best planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. We demonstrate our method in simulations and for the application of modeling senate voting records.