Data-driven stochastic optimization is ubiquitous in machine learning and operational decision-making problems. Sample average approximation (SAA) and model-based approaches such as estimate-then-optimize (ETO) or integrated estimation-optimization (IEO) are all popular, with model-based approaches being able to circumvent some of the issues with SAA in complex context-dependent problems. Yet the relative performance of these methods is poorly understood, with most results confined to the dichotomous cases of the model-based approach being either well-specified or misspecified. We develop the first results that allow for a more granular analysis of the relative performance of these methods under a local misspecification setting, which models the scenario where the model-based approach is nearly well-specified. By leveraging tools from contiguity theory in statistics, we show that there is a bias-variance tradeoff between SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification, and that the relative importance of the bias and the variance depends on the degree of local misspecification. Moreover, we derive explicit expressions for the decision bias, which allows us to characterize (un)impactful misspecification directions, and provide further geometric understanding of the variance.

Strategies to improve the predicting performance of Message-Passing Neural-Networks for molecular property predictions can be achieved by simplifying how the message is passed and by using descriptors that capture multiple aspects of molecular graphs. In this work, we designed model architectures that achieved state-of-the-art performance, surpassing more complex models such as those pre-trained on external databases. We assessed dataset diversity to complement our performance results, finding that structural diversity influences the need for additional components in our MPNNs and feature sets. In most datasets, our best architecture employs bidirectional message-passing with an attention mechanism, applied to a minimalist message formulation that excludes self-perception, highlighting that relatively simpler models, compared to classical MPNNs, yield higher class separability. In contrast, we found that convolution normalization factors do not benefit the predictive power in all the datasets tested. This was corroborated in both global and node-level outputs. Additionally, we analyzed the influence of both adding spatial features and working with 3D graphs, finding that 2D molecular graphs are sufficient when complemented with appropriately chosen 3D descriptors. This approach not only preserves predictive performance but also reduces computational cost by over 50%, making it particularly advantageous for high-throughput screening campaigns.

The proliferation of misinformation necessitates scalable, automated fact-checking solutions. Yet, current benchmarks often overlook multilingual and topical diversity. This paper introduces a novel, dynamically extensible data set that includes 61,514 claims in multiple languages and topics, extending existing datasets up to 2024. Through a comprehensive evaluation of five prominent Large Language Models (LLMs), including GPT-4o, GPT-3.5 Turbo, LLaMA 3.1, and Mixtral 8x7B, we identify significant performance gaps between different languages and topics. While overall GPT-4o achieves the highest accuracy, it declines to classify 43% of claims. Across all models, factual-sounding claims are misclassified more often than opinions, revealing a key vulnerability. These findings underscore the need for caution and highlight challenges in deploying LLM-based fact-checking systems at scale. To whom correspondence should be addressed: lorraine.saju@gesis.org

Automated fact-checking has been a challenging task for the research community. Past works tried various strategies, such as end-to-end training, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt engineering, to build robust fact-checking systems. However, their accuracy has not been very high for real-world deployment. We, on the other hand, propose a simple yet effective strategy, where entailed justifications generated by LLMs are used to train encoder-only language models (ELMs) for fact-checking. We conducted a rigorous set of experiments, comparing our approach with recent works and various prompting and fine-tuning strategies to demonstrate the superiority of our approach. Additionally, we did quality analysis of model explanations, ablation studies, and error analysis to provide a comprehensive understanding of our approach.

Continued pretraining and instruction tuning on large-scale multilingual data have proven to be effective in scaling large language models (LLMs) to low-resource languages. However, the unaligned nature of such data limits its ability to effectively capture cross-lingual semantics. In contrast, multi-way parallel data, where identical content is aligned across multiple languages, provides stronger cross-lingual consistency and offers greater potential for improving multilingual performance. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale, high-quality multi-way parallel corpus, TED2025, based on TED Talks. The corpus spans 113 languages, with up to 50 languages aligned in parallel, ensuring extensive multilingual coverage. Using this dataset, we investigate best practices for leveraging multi-way parallel data to enhance LLMs, including strategies for continued pretraining, instruction tuning, and the analysis of key influencing factors. Experiments on six multilingual benchmarks show that models trained on multiway parallel data consistently outperform those trained on unaligned multilingual data.

Vision-language models (VLMs) now rival human performance on many multimodal tasks, yet they still hallucinate objects or generate unsafe text. Current hallucination detectors, e.g., single-token linear probing (LP) and PTrue, typically analyze only the logit of the first generated token or just its highest-scoring component, overlooking richer signals embedded within earlier token distributions. We demonstrate that analyzing the complete sequence of early logits potentially provides substantially more diagnostic information. We emphasize that hallucinations may only emerge after several tokens, as subtle inconsistencies accumulate over time. By analyzing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between logits corresponding to hallucinated and non-hallucinated tokens, we underscore the importance of incorporating later-token logits to more accurately capture the reliability dynamics of VLMs. In response, we introduce Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE), a lightweight, white-box method that aggregates logits from the first ten tokens using multi-token log-likelihood ratios and self-attention. Despite the challenges posed by large vocabulary sizes and long logit sequences, MTRE remains efficient and tractable. Across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and four compositional-geometry benchmarks, MTRE achieves a 9.4% gain in accuracy and a 14.8% gain in AUROC over standard detection methods, establishing a new state of the art in hallucination detection for open-source VLMs.

The adoption of open science has quickly changed how artificial intelligence (AI) policy research is distributed globally. This study examines the regional trends in the citation of preprints, specifically focusing on the impact of two major disruptive events: the COVID-19 pandemic and the release of ChatGPT, on research dissemination patterns in the United States, Europe, and South Korea from 2015 to 2024. Using bibliometrics data from the Web of Science, this study tracks how global disruptive events influenced the adoption of preprints in AI policy research and how such shifts vary by region. By marking the timing of these disruptive events, the analysis reveals that while all regions experienced growth in preprint citations, the magnitude and trajectory of change varied significantly. The United States exhibited sharp, event-driven increases; Europe demonstrated institutional growth; and South Korea maintained consistent, linear growth in preprint adoption. These findings suggest that global disruptions may have accelerated preprint adoption, but the extent and trajectory are shaped by local research cultures, policy environments, and levels of open science maturity. This paper emphasizes the need for future AI governance strategies to consider regional variability in research dissemination and highlights opportunities for further longitudinal and comparative research to deepen our understanding of open-access adoption in AI policy development.

We introduce \textbf{BO4Mob}, a new benchmark framework for high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization (BO), driven by the challenge of origin-destination (OD) travel demand estimation in large urban road networks. Estimating OD travel demand from limited traffic sensor data is a difficult inverse optimization problem, particularly in real-world, large-scale transportation networks. This problem involves optimizing over high-dimensional continuous spaces where each objective evaluation is computationally expensive, stochastic, and non-differentiable. BO4Mob comprises five scenarios based on real-world San Jose, CA road networks, with input dimensions scaling up to 10,100. These scenarios utilize high-resolution, open-source traffic simulations that incorporate realistic nonlinear and stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the benchmark's utility by evaluating five optimization methods: three state-of-the-art BO algorithms and two non-BO baselines. This benchmark is designed to support both the development of scalable optimization algorithms and their application for the design of data-driven urban mobility models, including high-resolution digital twins of metropolitan road networks. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/UMN-Choi-Lab/BO4Mob.

Online topic models are unsupervised algorithms to identify latent topics in data streams that continuously evolve over time. Although these methods naturally align with real-world scenarios, they have received considerably less attention from the community compared to their offline counterparts, due to specific additional challenges. To tackle these issues, we present SB-SETM, an innovative model extending the Embedded Topic Model (ETM) to process data streams by merging models formed on successive partial document batches. To this end, SB-SETM (i) leverages a truncated stick-breaking construction for the topic-per-document distribution, enabling the model to automatically infer from the data the appropriate number of active topics at each timestep; and (ii) introduces a merging strategy for topic embed-dings based on a continuous formulation of optimal transport adapted to the high dimensionality of the latent topic space. Numerical experiments show SB-SETM outperforming baselines on simulated scenarios. We extensively test it on a real-world corpus of news articles covering the Russian-Ukrainian war throughout 2022-2023.

We study the learnability of languages in the Next Symbol Prediction (NSP) setting, where a learner receives only positive examples from a language together with, for every prefix, (i) whether the prefix itself is in the language and (ii) which next symbols can lead to an accepting string. This setting has been used in prior works to empirically analyze neural sequence models, and additionally, we observe that efficient algorithms for the NSP setting can be used to learn the (truncated) support of language models. We formalize the setting so as to make it amenable to PAC-learning analysis. While the setting provides a much richer set of labels than the conventional classification setting, we show that learning concept classes such as DFAs and Boolean formulas remains computationally hard. The proof is via a construction that makes almost all additional labels uninformative, yielding a reduction from the conventional learning problem to learning with NSP labels. Under cryptographic assumptions, the reduction implies that the problem of learning DFAs is computationally hard in the NSP setting.