Government
Equilibrium Refinements for Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams: Theory and Practice
Hammond, Lewis, Fox, James, Everitt, Tom, Abate, Alessandro, Wooldridge, Michael
Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular form of Previous work on MAIDs has focussed on Nash equilibria as graphical model that, for certain classes of games, have been shown the core solution concept [20]. Whilst this is arguably the most important to offer key complexity and explainability advantages over traditional solution concept in non-cooperative game theory, if there extensive form game (EFG) representations. In this paper, we are many Nash equilibria we often wish to remove some of those extend previous work on MAIDs by introducing the concept of a that are less'rational'. Many refinements to the Nash equilibrium MAID subgame, as well as subgame perfect and trembling hand have been proposed [17], with two of the most important being perfect equilibrium refinements. We then prove several equivalence subgame perfect Nash equilibria [26] and trembling hand perfect results between MAIDs and EFGs. Finally, we describe an open equilibria [27]. The first rules out'non-credible' threats and the second source implementation for reasoning about MAIDs and computing requires that each player is still playing a best-response when their equilibria.
Principles of Explanation in Human-AI Systems
Mueller, Shane T., Veinott, Elizabeth S., Hoffman, Robert R., Klein, Gary, Alam, Lamia, Mamun, Tauseef, Clancey, William J.
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has re-emerged in response to the development of modern AI and ML systems. These systems are complex and sometimes biased, but they nevertheless make decisions that impact our lives. XAI systems are frequently algorithm-focused; starting and ending with an algorithm that implements a basic untested idea about explainability. These systems are often not tested to determine whether the algorithm helps users accomplish any goals, and so their explainability remains unproven. We propose an alternative: to start with human-focused principles for the design, testing, and implementation of XAI systems, and implement algorithms to serve that purpose. In this paper, we review some of the basic concepts that have been used for user-centered XAI systems over the past 40 years of research. Based on these, we describe the "Self-Explanation Scorecard", which can help developers understand how they can empower users by enabling self-explanation. Finally, we present a set of empirically-grounded, user-centered design principles that may guide developers to create successful explainable systems.
Hallmarks of Human-Machine Collaboration: A framework for assessment in the DARPA Communicating with Computers Program
Kozierok, Robyn, Aberdeen, John, Clark, Cheryl, Garay, Christopher, Goodman, Bradley, Korves, Tonia, Hirschman, Lynette, McDermott, Patricia L., Peterson, Matthew W.
There is a growing desire to create computer systems that can communicate effectively to collaborate with humans on complex, open-ended activities. Assessing these systems presents significant challenges. We describe a framework for evaluating systems engaged in open-ended complex scenarios where evaluators do not have the luxury of comparing performance to a single right answer. This framework has been used to evaluate human-machine creative collaborations across story and music generation, interactive block building, and exploration of molecular mechanisms in cancer. These activities are fundamentally different from the more constrained tasks performed by most contemporary personal assistants as they are generally open-ended, with no single correct solution, and often no obvious completion criteria. We identified the Key Properties that must be exhibited by successful systems. From there we identified "Hallmarks" of success -- capabilities and features that evaluators can observe that would be indicative of progress toward achieving a Key Property. In addition to being a framework for assessment, the Key Properties and Hallmarks are intended to serve as goals in guiding research direction.
On permutation invariant training for speech source separation
Deep CASA, an spectrogram-based model, to Conv-TasNet, which uses very short waveform frames (such as 2 ms). We find that tPIT We study permutation invariant training (PIT), which targets at the based on such short waveform frames can be challenging. Therefore, permutation ambiguity problem for speaker independent source separation we propose performing tPIT in a pre-trained latent space--which models. We extend two state-of-the-art PIT strategies. First, allows for a more meaningful feature space for tPIT than the short we look at the two-stage speaker separation and tracking algorithm waveform frames. Further, when training the clustering model, Deep based on frame level PIT (tPIT) and clustering, which was originally CASA employs a memory and computationally expensive pairwise proposed for the STFT domain, and we adapt it to work with similarity loss that does not scale for waveform inputs. We propose waveforms and over a learned latent space. Further, we propose an a loss that reduces the complexity from quadratic to linear, making efficient clustering loss scalable to waveform models.
Security and Privacy for Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities and Challenges
Oseni, Ayodeji, Moustafa, Nour, Janicke, Helge, Liu, Peng, Tari, Zahir, Vasilakos, Athanasios
The increased adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents an opportunity to solve many socio-economic and environmental challenges; however, this cannot happen without securing AI-enabled technologies. In recent years, most AI models are vulnerable to advanced and sophisticated hacking techniques. This challenge has motivated concerted research efforts into adversarial AI, with the aim of developing robust machine and deep learning models that are resilient to different types of adversarial scenarios. In this paper, we present a holistic cyber security review that demonstrates adversarial attacks against AI applications, including aspects such as adversarial knowledge and capabilities, as well as existing methods for generating adversarial examples and existing cyber defence models. We explain mathematical AI models, especially new variants of reinforcement and federated learning, to demonstrate how attack vectors would exploit vulnerabilities of AI models. We also propose a systematic framework for demonstrating attack techniques against AI applications and reviewed several cyber defences that would protect AI applications against those attacks. We also highlight the importance of understanding the adversarial goals and their capabilities, especially the recent attacks against industry applications, to develop adaptive defences that assess to secure AI applications. Finally, we describe the main challenges and future research directions in the domain of security and privacy of AI technologies.
Baseline Pruning-Based Approach to Trojan Detection in Neural Networks
Bajcsy, Peter, Majurski, Michael
This paper addresses the problem of detecting trojans in neural networks (NNs) by analyzing systematically pruned NN models. Our pruning-based approach consists of three main steps. First, detect any deviations from the reference look-up tables of model file sizes and model graphs. Next, measure the accuracy of a set of systematically pruned NN models following multiple pruning schemas. Finally, classify a NN model as clean or poisoned by applying a mapping between accuracy measurements and NN model labels. This work outlines a theoretical and experimental framework for finding the optimal mapping over a large search space of pruning parameters. Based on our experiments using Round 1 and Round 2 TrojAI Challenge datasets, the approach achieves average classification accuracy of 69.73 % and 82.41% respectively with an average processing time of less than 60 s per model. For both datasets random guessing would produce 50% classification accuracy. Reference model graphs and source code are available from GitHub.
Global chip shortage to keep plaguing automakers in coming months
Automakers around the world will likely be forced to continue production cutbacks in the coming months before a global semiconductor supply shortage can be resolved, industry experts say. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. have said they partially halted production at factories around the world due to the chip shortage just as they began recovering from pandemic-forced plant shutdowns. Demand for chips, widely used in electronic devices including those in vehicles, has been surging across various sectors since last fall as the global economy picked up. "A gap in demand and supply for semiconductors suddenly occurred late last year due to a coincidence of some events including a sharp recovery in global auto sales, robust sales of smartphones and installment of the 5G networks," said Yoshiharu Izumi, senior analyst at SBI Securities Co. As video game sales jumped with people spending more time at home, robust production of game consoles ahead of the rollouts in November of Sony Interactive Entertainment Inc.'s PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X console from Microsoft Corp. also contributed to the chip supply crunch, experts say.
Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach
Carneiro, Carlos B., Ferreira, Iúri H., Medeiros, Marcelo C., Pires, Henrique F., Zilberman, Eduardo
The evolution of the Covid-19 has been posing several challenges to policymakers. Decisions have to be made in a timely fashion, without much undisputed evidence to support them. Being a new disease, and despite the enormous research effort to understand it, estimates of the transmission, recovery and death rates remain uncertain. Nevertheless, these are key pieces of information to assess potential pressures on the health system capacity, as well as the need of a lockdown policy and its intensity if implemented. Not surprisingly, similar regions have implemented different strategies regarding lockdowns. The leading example in the media is the looser social distancing policy in Sweden versus strict policies in its Scandinavian peers. By informally comparing the evolution of the pandemics in Sweden and Denmark (or Norway), many commentators argue that several Covid-19 cases and deaths in Sweden would be avoided in the short-run were a strict lockdown in place.
HINT: Hierarchical Interaction Network for Trial Outcome Prediction Leveraging Web Data
Fu, Tianfan, Huang, Kexin, Xiao, Cao, Glass, Lucas M., Sun, Jimeng
Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.
Analysis of the Effectiveness of Face-Coverings on the Death Rate of COVID-19 Using Machine Learning
Lafzi, Ali, Boodaghi, Miad, Zamani, Siavash, Mohammadshafie, Niyousha
The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 shocked humanity leading to the death of millions of people worldwide. To stave off the spread of the virus, the authorities in the US, employed different strategies including the mask mandate (MM) order issued by the states' governors. Although most of the previous studies pointed in the direction that MM can be effective in hindering the spread of viral infections, the effectiveness of MM in reducing the degree of exposure to the virus and, consequently, death rates remains indeterminate. Indeed, the extent to which the degree of exposure to COVID-19 takes part in the lethality of the virus remains unclear. In the current work, we defined a parameter called the average death ratio as the monthly average of the ratio of the number of daily deaths to the total number of daily cases. We utilized survey data provided by New York Times to quantify people's abidance to the MM order. Additionally, we implicitly addressed the extent to which people abide by the MM order that may depend on some parameters like population, income, and political inclination. Using different machine learning classification algorithms we investigated how the decrease or increase in death ratio for the counties in the US West Coast correlates with the input parameters. Our results showed a promising score as high as 0.94 with algorithms like XGBoost, Random Forest, and Naive Bayes. To verify the model, the best performing algorithms were then utilized to analyze other states (Arizona, New Jersey, New York and Texas) as test cases. The findings show an acceptable trend, further confirming usability of the chosen features for prediction of similar cases.