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Algorithms Are Coming for Democracy--but It's Not All Bad

WIRED

In 2025, AI is poised to change every aspect of democratic politics--but it won't necessarily be for the worse. India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, has used AI to translate his speeches for his multilingual electorate in real time, demonstrating how AI can help diverse democracies to be more inclusive. AI avatars were used by presidential candidates in South Korea in electioneering, enabling them to provide answers to thousands of voters' questions simultaneously. We are also starting to see AI tools aid fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts. AI techniques are starting to augment more traditional polling methods, helping campaigns get cheaper and faster data.


How the far right is weaponising AI-generated content in Europe

The Guardian

From fake images designed to cause fears of an immigrant "invasion" to other demonisation campaigns targeted at leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, far-right parties and activists across western Europe are at the forefront of the political weaponisation of generative artificial intelligence technology. This year's European parliamentary elections were the launchpad for a rollout of AI-generated campaigning by the European far right, experts say, which has continued to proliferate since. This month, the issue reached the independent oversight board of Mark Zuckerberg's Meta when the body opened an investigation into anti-immigration content on Facebook. The inquiry by the oversight board will look at a post from a German account featuring an AI-generated image emblazoned with anti-immigrant rhetoric. It is part of a wave of AI-made rightwing content on social media networks.


AUTO-IceNav: A Local Navigation Strategy for Autonomous Surface Ships in Broken Ice Fields

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ice conditions often require ships to reduce speed and deviate from their main course to avoid damage to the ship. In addition, broken ice fields are becoming the dominant ice conditions encountered in the Arctic, where the effects of collisions with ice are highly dependent on where contact occurs and on the particular features of the ice floes. In this paper, we present AUTO-IceNav, a framework for the autonomous navigation of ships operating in ice floe fields. Trajectories are computed in a receding-horizon manner, where we frequently replan given updated ice field data. During a planning step, we assume a nominal speed that is safe with respect to the current ice conditions, and compute a reference path. We formulate a novel cost function that minimizes the kinetic energy loss of the ship from ship-ice collisions and incorporate this cost as part of our lattice-based path planner. The solution computed by the lattice planning stage is then used as an initial guess in our proposed optimization-based improvement step, producing a locally optimal path. Extensive experiments were conducted both in simulation and in a physical testbed to validate our approach.


Time-Series Forecasting in Smart Manufacturing Systems: An Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-art Algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

TSF is growing in various domains including manufacturing. Although numerous TSF algorithms have been developed recently, the validation and evaluation of algorithms hold substantial value for researchers and practitioners and are missing. This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating the SoTA TSF algorithms on thirteen manufacturing datasets, focusing on their applicability in manufacturing. Each algorithm was selected based on its TSF category to ensure a representative set of algorithms. The evaluation includes different scenarios to evaluate the models using two problem categories and two forecasting horizons. To evaluate the performance, the WAPE was calculated, and additional post hoc analyses were conducted to assess the significance of observed differences. Only algorithms with codes from open-source libraries were utilized, and no hyperparameter tuning was done. This allowed us to evaluate the algorithms as "out-of-the-box" solutions that can be easily implemented, ensuring their usability within the manufacturing by practitioners with limited technical knowledge. This aligns to facilitate the adoption of these techniques in smart manufacturing systems. Based on the results, transformer and MLP-based architectures demonstrated the best performance with MLP-based architecture winning the most scenarios. For univariate TSF, PatchTST emerged as the most robust, particularly for long-term horizons, while for multivariate problems, MLP-based architectures like N-HITS and TiDE showed superior results. The study revealed that simpler algorithms like XGBoost could outperform complex algorithms in certain tasks. These findings challenge the assumption that more sophisticated models produce better results. Additionally, the research highlighted the importance of computational resource considerations, showing variations in runtime and memory usage across different algorithms.


Digital Democracy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This chapter explores the influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on digital democracy, focusing on four main areas: citizenship, participation, representation, and the public sphere. It traces the evolution from electronic to virtual and network democracy, underscoring how each stage has broadened democratic engagement through technology. Focusing on digital citizenship, the chapter examines how AI can improve online engagement and promote ethical behaviour while posing privacy risks and fostering identity stereotyping. Regarding political participation, it highlights AI's dual role in mobilising civic actions and spreading misinformation. Regarding representation, AI's involvement in electoral processes can enhance voter registration, e-voting, and the efficiency of result tabulation but raises concerns regarding privacy and public trust. Also, AI's predictive capabilities shift the dynamics of political competition, posing ethical questions about manipulation and the legitimacy of democracy. Finally, the chapter examines how integrating AI and digital technologies can facilitate democratic political advocacy and personalised communication. However, this also comes with higher risks of misinformation and targeted propaganda.


New Faithfulness-Centric Interpretability Paradigms for Natural Language Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As machine learning becomes more widespread and is used in more critical applications, it's important to provide explanations for these models, to prevent unintended behavior. Unfortunately, many current interpretability methods struggle with faithfulness. Therefore, this Ph.D. thesis investigates the question "How to provide and ensure faithful explanations for complex general-purpose neural NLP models?" The main thesis is that we should develop new paradigms in interpretability. This is achieved by first developing solid faithfulness metrics and then applying the lessons learned from this investigation to develop new paradigms. The two new paradigms explored are faithfulness measurable models (FMMs) and self-explanations. The idea in self-explanations is to have large language models explain themselves, we identify that current models are not capable of doing this consistently. However, we suggest how this could be achieved. The idea of FMMs is to create models that are designed such that measuring faithfulness is cheap and precise. This makes it possible to optimize an explanation towards maximum faithfulness, which makes FMMs designed to be explained. We find that FMMs yield explanations that are near theoretical optimal in terms of faithfulness. Overall, from all investigations of faithfulness, results show that post-hoc and intrinsic explanations are by default model and task-dependent. However, this was not the case when using FMMs, even with the same post-hoc explanation methods. This shows, that even simple modifications to the model, such as randomly masking the training dataset, as was done in FMMs, can drastically change the situation and result in consistently faithful explanations. This answers the question of how to provide and ensure faithful explanations.


MARVEL-40M+: Multi-Level Visual Elaboration for High-Fidelity Text-to-3D Content Creation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generating high-fidelity 3D content from text prompts remains a significant challenge in computer vision due to the limited size, diversity, and annotation depth of the existing datasets. To address this, we introduce MARVEL-40M+, an extensive dataset with 40 million text annotations for over 8.9 million 3D assets aggregated from seven major 3D datasets. Our contribution is a novel multi-stage annotation pipeline that integrates open-source pretrained multi-view VLMs and LLMs to automatically produce multi-level descriptions, ranging from detailed (150-200 words) to concise semantic tags (10-20 words). This structure supports both fine-grained 3D reconstruction and rapid prototyping. Furthermore, we incorporate human metadata from source datasets into our annotation pipeline to add domain-specific information in our annotation and reduce VLM hallucinations. Additionally, we develop MARVEL-FX3D, a two-stage text-to-3D pipeline. We fine-tune Stable Diffusion with our annotations and use a pretrained image-to-3D network to generate 3D textured meshes within 15s. Extensive evaluations show that MARVEL-40M+ significantly outperforms existing datasets in annotation quality and linguistic diversity, achieving win rates of 72.41% by GPT-4 and 73.40% by human evaluators.


Navigating Spatial Inequities in Freight Truck Crash Severity via Counterfactual Inference in Los Angeles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Freight truck-related crashes pose significant challenges, leading to substantial economic losses, injuries, and fatalities, with pronounced spatial disparities across different regions. This study adopts a transport geography perspective to examine spatial justice concerns by employing deep counterfactual inference models to analyze how socioeconomic disparities, road infrastructure, and environmental conditions influence the geographical distribution and severity of freight truck crashes. By integrating road network datasets, socioeconomic attributes, and crash records from the Los Angeles metropolitan area, this research provides a nuanced spatial analysis of how different communities are disproportionately impacted. The results reveal significant spatial disparities in crash severity across areas with varying population densities, income levels, and minority populations, highlighting the pivotal role of infrastructural and environmental improvements in mitigating these disparities. The findings offer insights into targeted, location-specific policy interventions, suggesting enhancements in road infrastructure, lighting, and traffic control systems, particularly in low-income and minority-concentrated areas. This research contributes to the literature on transport geography and spatial equity by providing data-driven insights into effective measures for reducing spatial injustices associated with freight truck-related crashes.


Spatio-temporal Causal Learning for Streamflow Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Streamflow plays an essential role in the sustainable planning and management of national water resources. Traditional hydrologic modeling approaches simulate streamflow by establishing connections across multiple physical processes, such as rainfall and runoff. These data, inherently connected both spatially and temporally, possess intrinsic causal relations that can be leveraged for robust and accurate forecasting. Recently, spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have been adopted, excelling in various domains, such as urban traffic management, weather forecasting, and pandemic control, and they also promise advances in streamflow management. However, learning causal relationships directly from vast observational data is theoretically and computationally challenging. In this study, we employ a river flow graph as prior knowledge to facilitate the learning of the causal structure and then use the learned causal graph to predict streamflow at targeted sites. The proposed model, Causal Streamflow Forecasting (CSF) is tested in a real-world study in the Brazos River basin in Texas. Our results demonstrate that our method outperforms regular spatio-temporal graph neural networks and achieves higher computational efficiency compared to traditional simulation methods. By effectively integrating river flow graphs with STGNNs, this research offers a novel approach to streamflow prediction, showcasing the potential of combining advanced neural network techniques with domain-specific knowledge for enhanced performance in hydrologic modeling.


Basic Research, Lethal Effects: Military AI Research Funding as Enlistment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of unprecedented U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) budgets, this paper examines the recent history of DoD funding for academic research in algorithmically based warfighting. We draw from a corpus of DoD grant solicitations from 2007 to 2023, focusing on those addressed to researchers in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Considering the implications of DoD funding for academic research, the paper proceeds through three analytic sections. In the first, we offer a critical examination of the distinction between basic and applied research, showing how funding calls framed as basic research nonetheless enlist researchers in a war fighting agenda. In the second, we offer a diachronic analysis of the corpus, showing how a 'one small problem' caveat, in which affirmation of progress in military technologies is qualified by acknowledgement of outstanding problems, becomes justification for additional investments in research. We close with an analysis of DoD aspirations based on a subset of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) grant solicitations for the use of AI in battlefield applications. Taken together, we argue that grant solicitations work as a vehicle for the mutual enlistment of DoD funding agencies and the academic AI research community in setting research agendas. The trope of basic research in this context offers shelter from significant moral questions that military applications of one's research would raise, by obscuring the connections that implicate researchers in U.S. militarism.