This study examines the impact of lifelong learning on the professional lives of employed and unemployed individuals. Lifelong learning is a crucial factor in securing employment or enhancing one's existing career prospects. To achieve this objective, this study proposes the implementation of a multi-criteria decision support system for the evaluation of training courses in accordance with their capacity to enhance the employability of the students. The methodology is delineated in four stages. Firstly, a `working life curve' was defined to provide a quantitative description of an individual's working life. Secondly, an analysis based on K-medoids clustering defined a control group for each individual for comparison. Thirdly, the performance of a course according to each of the four predefined criteria was calculated using a t-test to determine the mean performance value of those who took the course. Ultimately, the unweighted TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the efficacy of the various training courses in relation to the four criteria. This approach effectively addresses the challenge of using extensive datasets within a system while facilitating the application of a multi-criteria unweighted TOPSIS method. The results of the multi-criteria TOPSIS method indicated that training courses related to the professional fields of administration and management, hostel and tourism and community and sociocultural services have positive impact on employability and improving the working conditions of citizens. However, courses that demonstrate the greatest effectiveness in ranking are the least demanded by citizens. The results will help policymakers evaluate the effectiveness of each training course offered by the regional government.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme precipitation events, making weather disasters such as flooding and landslides more likely. The ability to accurately nowcast precipitation is therefore becoming more critical for safeguarding society by providing immediate, accurate information to decision makers. Motivated by the recent success of generative models at precipitation nowcasting, this paper: extends the DYffusion framework to this task and evaluates its performance at forecasting IMERG satellite precipitation data up to a 4-hour horizon; modifies the DYffusion framework to improve its ability to model rainfall data; and introduces a novel loss function that combines MSE, MAE and the LPIPS perceptual score. In a quantitative evaluation of forecasts up to a 4-hour horizon, the modified DYffusion framework trained with the novel loss outperforms four competitor models. It has the highest CSI scores for weak, moderate, and heavy rain thresholds and retains an LPIPS score $<$ 0.2 for the entire roll-out, degrading the least as lead-time increases. The proposed nowcasting model demonstrates visually stable and sharp forecasts up to a 2-hour horizon on a heavy rain case study. Code is available at https://github.com/Dseal95/DYffcast.

In many security applications of cyber-physical systems, a system designer must guarantee that critical missions are satisfied against attacks in the sensors and actuators of the CPS. Traditional security design of CPSs often assume that attackers have complete knowledge of the system. In this article, we introduce a class of deception techniques and study how to leverage asymmetric information created by deception to strengthen CPS security. Consider an adversarial interaction between a CPS defender and an attacker, who can perform sensor jamming attacks. To mitigate such attacks, the defender introduces asymmetrical information by deploying a "hidden sensor," whose presence is initially undisclosed but can be revealed if queried. We introduce hypergames on graphs to model this game with asymmetric information. Building on the solution concept called subjective rationalizable strategies in hypergames, we identify two stages in the game: An initial game stage where the defender commits to a strategy perceived rationalizable by the attacker until he deviates from the equilibrium in the attacker's perceptual game; Upon the deviation, a delay-attack game stage starts where the defender plays against the attacker, who has a bounded delay in attacking the sensor being revealed. Based on backward induction, we develop an algorithm that determines, for any given state, if the defender can benefit from hiding a sensor and revealing it later. If the answer is affirmative, the algorithm outputs a sensor revealing strategy to determine when to reveal the sensor during dynamic interactions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our deceptive strategies through two case studies related to CPS security applications.

The theory of evidence reasoning has been applied to collective decision-making in recent years. However, existing distributed evidence fusion methods lead to participants' preference leakage and fusion failures as they directly exchange raw evidence and do not assess evidence credibility like centralized credible evidence fusion (CCEF) does. To do so, a privacy-preserving distributed credible evidence fusion method with three-level consensus (PCEF) is proposed in this paper. In evidence difference measure (EDM) neighbor consensus, an evidence-free equivalent expression of EDM among neighbored agents is derived with the shared dot product protocol for pignistic probability and the identical judgment of two events with maximal subjective probabilities, so that evidence privacy is guaranteed due to such irreversible evidence transformation. In EDM network consensus, the non-neighbored EDMs are inferred and neighbored EDMs reach uniformity via interaction between linear average consensus (LAC) and low-rank matrix completion with rank adaptation to guarantee EDM consensus convergence and no solution of inferring raw evidence in numerical iteration style. In fusion network consensus, a privacy-preserving LAC with a self-cancelling differential privacy term is proposed, where each agent adds its randomness to the sharing content and step-by-step cancels such randomness in consensus iterations. Besides, the sufficient condition of the convergence to the CCEF is explored, and it is proven that raw evidence is impossibly inferred in such an iterative consensus. The simulations show that PCEF is close to CCEF both in credibility and fusion results and obtains higher decision accuracy with less time-comsuming than existing methods.

Predicting the extent of massive wildfires once ignited is essential to reduce the subsequent socioeconomic losses and environmental damage, but challenging because of the complexity of fire behaviour. Existing physics-based models are limited in predicting large or long-duration wildfire events. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based predictive model, Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN), that uses spatial features derived from both near real-time and reanalysis data on the environmental and meteorological drivers of wildfire. We trained and tested this model using more than 300 individual wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2019 in the western US. In contrast to existing models, the performance of FIDN does not degrade with fire size or duration. Furthermore, it predicts final burnt area accurately even in very heterogeneous landscapes in terms of fuel density and flammability. The FIDN model showed higher accuracy, with a mean squared error (MSE) about 82% and 67% lower than those of the predictive models based on cellular automata (CA) and the minimum travel time (MTT) approaches, respectively. Its structural similarity index measure (SSIM) averages 97%, outperforming the CA and FlamMap MTT models by 6% and 2%, respectively. Additionally, FIDN is approximately three orders of magnitude faster than both CA and MTT models. The enhanced computational efficiency and accuracy advancements offer vital insights for strategic planning and resource allocation for firefighting operations.

Capability evaluations play a critical role in ensuring the safe deployment of frontier AI systems, but this role may be undermined by intentional underperformance or ``sandbagging.'' We present a novel model-agnostic method for detecting sandbagging behavior using noise injection. Our approach is founded on the observation that introducing Gaussian noise into the weights of models either prompted or fine-tuned to sandbag can considerably improve their performance. We test this technique across a range of model sizes and multiple-choice question benchmarks (MMLU, AI2, WMDP). Our results demonstrate that noise injected sandbagging models show performance improvements compared to standard models. Leveraging this effect, we develop a classifier that consistently identifies sandbagging behavior. Our unsupervised technique can be immediately implemented by frontier labs or regulatory bodies with access to weights to improve the trustworthiness of capability evaluations.

In many settings, machine learning models may be used to inform decisions that impact individuals or entities who interact with the model. Such entities, or agents, may game model decisions by manipulating their inputs to the model to obtain better outcomes and maximize some utility. We consider a multi-agent setting where the goal is to identify the "worst offenders:" agents that are gaming most aggressively. However, identifying such agents is difficult without knowledge of their utility function. Thus, we introduce a framework in which each agent's tendency to game is parameterized via a scalar. We show that this gaming parameter is only partially identifiable. By recasting the problem as a causal effect estimation problem where different agents represent different "treatments," we prove that a ranking of all agents by their gaming parameters is identifiable. We present empirical results in a synthetic data study validating the usage of causal effect estimation for gaming detection and show in a case study of diagnosis coding behavior in the U.S. that our approach highlights features associated with gaming.

We introduce HackSynth, a novel Large Language Model (LLM)-based agent capable of autonomous penetration testing. HackSynth's dual-module architecture includes a Planner and a Summarizer, which enable it to generate commands and process feedback iteratively. To benchmark HackSynth, we propose two new Capture The Flag (CTF)-based benchmark sets utilizing the popular platforms PicoCTF and OverTheWire. These benchmarks include two hundred challenges across diverse domains and difficulties, providing a standardized framework for evaluating LLM-based penetration testing agents. Based on these benchmarks, extensive experiments are presented, analyzing the core parameters of HackSynth, including creativity (temperature and top-p) and token utilization. Multiple open source and proprietary LLMs were used to measure the agent's capabilities. The experiments show that the agent performed best with the GPT-4o model, better than what the GPT-4o's system card suggests. We also discuss the safety and predictability of HackSynth's actions. Our findings indicate the potential of LLM-based agents in advancing autonomous penetration testing and the importance of robust safeguards. HackSynth and the benchmarks are publicly available to foster research on autonomous cybersecurity solutions.

This study investigates crash severity risk modeling strategies for work zones involving large vehicles (i.e., trucks, buses, and vans) when there are crash data imbalance between low-severity (LS) and high-severity (HS) crashes. We utilized crash data, involving large vehicles in South Carolina work zones for the period between 2014 and 2018, which included 4 times more LS crashes compared to HS crashes. The objective of this study is to explore crash severity prediction performance of various models under different feature selection and data balancing techniques. The findings of this study highlight a disparity between LS and HS predictions, with less-accurate prediction of HS crashes compared to LS crashes due to class imbalance and feature overlaps between LS and HS crashes. Combining features from multiple feature selection techniques: statistical correlation, feature importance, recursive elimination, statistical tests, and mutual information, slightly improves HS crash prediction performance. Data balancing techniques such as NearMiss-1 and RandomUnderSampler, maximize HS recall when paired with certain prediction models, such as Bayesian Mixed Logit (BML), NeuralNet, and RandomForest, making them suitable for HS crash prediction. Conversely, RandomOverSampler, HS Class Weighting, and Kernel-based Synthetic Minority Oversampling (K-SMOTE), used with certain prediction models such as BML, CatBoost, and LightGBM, achieve a balanced performance, defined as achieving an equitable trade-off between LS and HS prediction performance metrics. These insights provide safety analysts with guidance to select models, feature selection techniques, and data balancing techniques that align with their specific safety objectives, offering a robust foundation for enhancing work-zone crash severity prediction.

In the fast-evolving field of information retrieval (IR), the integration of generative AI technologies such as large language models (LLMs) is transforming how users search for and interact with information. Recognizing this paradigm shift at the intersection of IR and generative AI (IR-GenAI), a visioning workshop supported by the Computing Community Consortium (CCC) was held in July 2024 to discuss the future of IR in the age of generative AI. This workshop convened 44 experts in information retrieval, natural language processing, human-computer interaction, and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and government to explore how generative AI can enhance IR and vice versa, and to identify the major challenges and opportunities in this rapidly advancing field. This report contains a summary of discussions as potentially important research topics and contains a list of recommendations for academics, industry practitioners, institutions, evaluation campaigns, and funding agencies.