Government
Admissibility of Stein Shrinkage for Batch Normalization in the Presence of Adversarial Attacks
Ivolgina, Sofia, Fletcher, P. Thomas, Vemuri, Baba C.
Batch normalization (BN) is a ubiquitous operation in deep neural networks used primarily to achieve stability and regularization during network training. BN involves feature map centering and scaling using sample means and variances, respectively. Since these statistics are being estimated across the feature maps within a batch, this problem is ideally suited for the application of Stein's shrinkage estimation, which leads to a better, in the mean-squared-error sense, estimate of the mean and variance of the batch. In this paper, we prove that the Stein shrinkage estimator for the mean and variance dominates over the sample mean and variance estimators in the presence of adversarial attacks when modeling these attacks using sub-Gaussian distributions. This facilitates and justifies the application of Stein shrinkage to estimate the mean and variance parameters in BN and use it in image classification (segmentation) tasks with and without adversarial attacks. We present SOTA performance results using this Stein corrected batch norm in a standard ResNet architecture applied to the task of image classification using CIFAR-10 data, 3D CNN on PPMI (neuroimaging) data and image segmentation using HRNet on Cityscape data with and without adversarial attacks.
CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
Azizi, Ilia, Bodik, Juraj, Heiss, Jakob, Yu, Bin
Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling, especially in regression tasks. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty from measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty from limited data, but not necessarily both in a balanced way. We propose CLEAR, a calibration method with two distinct parameters, $ฮณ_1$ and $ฮณ_2$, to combine the two uncertainty components for improved conditional coverage. CLEAR is compatible with any pair of aleatoric and epistemic estimators; we show how it can be used with (i) quantile regression for aleatoric uncertainty and (ii) ensembles drawn from the Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for epistemic uncertainty. Across 17 diverse real-world datasets, CLEAR achieves an average improvement of 28.2% and 17.4% in the interval width compared to the two individually calibrated baselines while maintaining nominal coverage. This improvement can be particularly evident in scenarios dominated by either high epistemic or high aleatoric uncertainty.
SynBridge: Bridging Reaction States via Discrete Flow for Bidirectional Reaction Prediction
Lin, Haitao, Wang, Junjie, Gao, Zhifeng, Ji, Xiaohong, Zhu, Rong, Zhang, Linfeng, Ke, Guolin, E, Weinan
The essence of a chemical reaction lies in the redistribution and reorganization of electrons, which is often manifested through electron transfer or the migration of electron pairs. These changes are inherently discrete and abrupt in the physical world, such as alterations in the charge states of atoms or the formation and breaking of chemical bonds. To model the transition of states, we propose SynBridge, a bidirectional flow-based generative model to achieve multi-task reaction prediction. By leveraging a graph-to-graph transformer network architecture and discrete flow bridges between any two discrete distributions, SynBridge captures bidirectional chemical transformations between graphs of reactants and products through the bonds' and atoms' discrete states. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets (USPTO-50K, USPTO-MIT, Pistachio), achieving state-of-the-art performance in both forward and retrosynthesis tasks. Our ablation studies and noise scheduling analysis reveal the benefits of structured diffusion over discrete spaces for reaction prediction.
Lighting the Night with Generative Artificial Intelligence
Zhou, Tingting, Zhang, Feng, Fu, Haoyang, Pan, Baoxiang, Zhang, Renhe, Lu, Feng, Yang, Zhixin
The visible light reflectance data from geostationary satellites is crucial for meteorological observations and plays an important role in weather monitoring and forecasting. However, due to the lack of visible light at night, it is impossible to conduct continuous all-day weather observations using visible light reflectance data. This study pioneers the use of generative diffusion models to address this limitation. Based on the multi-band thermal infrared brightness temperature data from the Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) onboard the Fengyun-4B (FY4B) geostationary satellite, we developed a high-precision visible light reflectance generative model, called Reflectance Diffusion (RefDiff), which enables 0.47~ฮผ\mathrm{m}, 0.65~ฮผ\mathrm{m}, and 0.825~ฮผ\mathrm{m} bands visible light reflectance generation at night. Compared to the classical models, RefDiff not only significantly improves accuracy through ensemble averaging but also provides uncertainty estimation. Specifically, the SSIM index of RefDiff can reach 0.90, with particularly significant improvements in areas with complex cloud structures and thick clouds. The model's nighttime generation capability was validated using VIIRS nighttime product, demonstrating comparable performance to its daytime counterpart. In summary, this research has made substantial progress in the ability to generate visible light reflectance at night, with the potential to expand the application of nighttime visible light data.
A Comprehensive Survey on Deep Learning Solutions for 3D Flood Mapping
Jia, Wenfeng, Liang, Bin, Liu, Yuxi, Khan, Muhammad Arif, Zheng, Lihong
Flooding remains a major global challenge, worsened by climate change and urbanization, demanding advanced solutions for effective disaster management. While traditional 2D flood mapping techniques provide limited insights, 3D flood mapping, powered by deep learning (DL), offers enhanced capabilities by integrating flood extent and depth. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of deep learning-based 3D flood mapping, emphasizing its advancements over 2D maps by integrating flood extent and depth for effective disaster management and urban planning. The survey categorizes deep learning techniques into task decomposition and end-to-end approaches, applicable to both static and dynamic flood features. We compare key DL architectures, highlighting their respective roles in enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. Additionally, this work explores diverse data sources such as digital elevation models, satellite imagery, rainfall, and simulated data, outlining their roles in 3D flood mapping. The applications reviewed range from real-time flood prediction to long-term urban planning and risk assessment. However, significant challenges persist, including data scarcity, model interpretability, and integration with traditional hydrodynamic models. This survey concludes by suggesting future directions to address these limitations, focusing on enhanced datasets, improved models, and policy implications for flood management. This survey aims to guide researchers and practitioners in leveraging DL techniques for more robust and reliable 3D flood mapping, fostering improved flood management strategies.
Deep Learning-Based Forecasting of Boarding Patient Counts to Address ED Overcrowding
Vural, Orhun, Ozaydin, Bunyamin, Booth, James, Lindsey, Brittany F., Ahmed, Abdulaziz
This study presents a deep learning-based framework for predicting emergency department (ED) boarding counts six hours in advance using only operational and contextual data, without patient-level information. Data from ED tracking systems, inpatient census, weather, holidays, and local events were aggregated hourly and processed with comprehensive feature engineering. The mean ED boarding count was 28.7 (standard deviation = 11.2). Multiple deep learning models, including ResNetPlus, TSTPlus, and TSiTPlus, were trained and optimized using Optuna, with TSTPlus achieving the best results (mean absolute error = 4.30, mean squared error = 29.47, R2 = 0.79). The framework accurately forecasted boarding counts, including during extreme periods, and demonstrated that broader input features improve predictive accuracy. This approach supports proactive hospital management and offers a practical method for mitigating ED overcrowding.
AI Safety Should Prioritize the Future of Work
Hazra, Sanchaita, Majumder, Bodhisattwa Prasad, Chakrabarty, Tuhin
Current efforts in AI safety prioritize filtering harmful content, preventing manipulation of human behavior, and eliminating existential risks in cybersecurity or biosecurity. While pressing, this narrow focus overlooks critical human-centric considerations that shape the long-term trajectory of a society. In this position paper, we identify the risks of overlooking the impact of AI on the future of work and recommend comprehensive transition support towards the evolution of meaningful labor with human agency. Through the lens of economic theories, we highlight the intertemporal impacts of AI on human livelihood and the structural changes in labor markets that exacerbate income inequality. Additionally, the closed-source approach of major stakeholders in AI development resembles rent-seeking behavior through exploiting resources, breeding mediocrity in creative labor, and monopolizing innovation. To address this, we argue in favor of a robust international copyright anatomy supported by implementing collective licensing that ensures fair compensation mechanisms for using data to train AI models. We strongly recommend a pro-worker framework of global AI governance to enhance shared prosperity and economic justice while reducing technical debt.
Generating Proto-Personas through Prompt Engineering: A Case Study on Efficiency, Effectiveness and Empathy
Ayach, Fernando, Lameirรฃo, Vitor, Leรฃo, Raul, Felizardo, Jerfferson, Sobrinho, Rafael, Borges, Vanessa, Matsubara, Patrรญcia, Fontรฃo, Awdren
Proto-personas are commonly used during early-stage Product Discovery, such as Lean Inception, to guide product definition and stakeholder alignment. However, the manual creation of proto-personas is often time-consuming, cognitively demanding, and prone to bias. In this paper, we propose and empirically investigate a prompt engineering-based approach to generate proto-personas with the support of Generative AI (GenAI). Our goal is to evaluate the approach in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, user acceptance, and the empathy elicited by the generated personas. We conducted a case study with 19 participants embedded in a real Lean Inception, employing a qualitative and quantitative methods design. The results reveal the approach's efficiency by reducing time and effort and improving the quality and reusability of personas in later discovery phases, such as Minimum Viable Product (MVP) scoping and feature refinement. While acceptance was generally high, especially regarding perceived usefulness and ease of use, participants noted limitations related to generalization and domain specificity. Furthermore, although cognitive empathy was strongly supported, affective and behavioral empathy varied significantly across participants. These results contribute novel empirical evidence on how GenAI can be effectively integrated into software Product Discovery practices, while also identifying key challenges to be addressed in future iterations of such hybrid design processes.
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Agentic Approach to Estimating Market Risk Improves Trading Decisions
Emmanoulopoulos, Dimitrios, Olby, Ollie, Lyon, Justin, Stillman, Namid R.
Applications range from technical analysis of a company's fundamental value, wider market sentiment, factor analysis and most tasks involving some form of natural language processing (NLP) [1, 2]. The implications to trading systems will likely be a dramatic increase in the rate and volume of market insights that can be generated to inform decisions. The overall capabilities of LLMs have dramatically increased over the last five years [3]. This has led to an increase in the number of LLMs available, both as proprietary models from frontier labs or as smaller models with open-weights which can be run locally. Given this, the influence of LLMs on trading decisions is expected to be varied and highly model specific. Early work is starting to compare and benchmark these models in tasks specific to financial applications, such as trading decisions, portfolio optimisation, and market analysis [4-10]. As the number of models increases, and their underlying strengths and weaknesses become more apparent, it is expected that different classes of pre-trained models will be more regularly deployed to achieve certain objectives [11, 12]. While these objectives are likely to be significantly linked to NLP-based tasks, such as text summarisation, analysis, and generation, recent LLM architectures give early evidence that more complex tasks can also be automated. These LLMs, such as the'o' series from OpenAI or'R1' from DeepSeek, generate'reasoning' tokens which result in the model performing more in-context analysis of the generated output and has lead to improved performance over a number of key evaluation measures [13, 14].
Using Large Language Models for Legal Decision-Making in Austrian Value-Added Tax Law: An Experimental Study
Luketina, Marina, Benkel, Andrea, Schuetz, Christoph G.
This paper provides an experimental evaluation of the capability of large language models (LLMs) to assist in legal decision-making within the framework of Austrian and European Union value-added tax (VAT) law. In tax consulting practice, clients often describe cases in natural language, making LLMs a prime candidate for supporting automated decision-making and reducing the workload of tax professionals. Given the requirement for legally grounded and well-justified analyses, the propensity of LLMs to hallucinate presents a considerable challenge. The experiments focus on two common methods for enhancing LLM performance: fine-tuning and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). In this study, these methods are applied on both textbook cases and real-world cases from a tax consulting firm to systematically determine the best configurations of LLM-based systems and assess the legal-reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The findings highlight the potential of using LLMs to support tax consultants by automating routine tasks and providing initial analyses, although current prototypes are not ready for full automation due to the sensitivity of the legal domain. The findings indicate that LLMs, when properly configured, can effectively support tax professionals in VAT tasks and provide legally grounded justifications for decisions. However, limitations remain regarding the handling of implicit client knowledge and context-specific documentation, underscoring the need for future integration of structured background information.