Government
MORNING GLORY: Has President Trump ordered the big re-think?
Neither President Franklin Delano Roosevelt nor British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, nor any of their senior military or political advisors, saw the Japanese attacks of late 1941 coming. The forces of Imperial Japan achieved total surprise across the Pacific. The intelligence failures in the U.S. leading up to Pearl Harbor were catastrophic. So was Great Britain's general underestimation of the threat from Imperial Japan. The U.K.'s fortress outpost in the Pacific at Singapore was thought to be, if not impregnable, than as close to it as possible.
What you may have missed about Trump's AI Action Plan
But if you dig deeper, certain parts of the plan that didn't pop up in any headlines reveal more about where the administration's AI plans are headed. Here are three of the most important issues to watch. When Americans get scammed, they're supposed to be helped by the Federal Trade Commission. As I wrote last week, the FTC under President Biden increasingly targeted AI companies that overhyped the accuracy of their systems, as well as deployments of AI it found to have harmed consumers. The Trump plan vows to take a fresh look at all the FTC actions under the previous administration as part of an effort to get rid of "onerous" regulation that it claims is hampering AI's development.
Lasso Penalization for High-Dimensional Beta Regression Models: Computation, Analysis, and Inference
Ramezani, Niloofar, Slawski, Martin
Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time, several of which address variable selection and penalized estimation, e.g., with an $\ell_1$-penalty (LASSO). However, a theoretical analysis of this popular approach in the context of Beta regression with high-dimensional predictors is lacking. In this paper, we aim to close this gap. A particular challenge arises from the non-convexity of the associated negative log-likelihood, which we address by resorting to a framework for analyzing stationary points in a neighborhood of the target parameter. Leveraging this framework, we derive a non-asymptotic bound on the $\ell_1$-error of such stationary points. In addition, we propose a debiasing approach to construct confidence intervals for the regression parameters. A proximal gradient algorithm is devised for optimizing the resulting penalized negative log-likelihood function. Our theoretical analysis is corroborated via simulation studies, and a real data example concerning the prediction of county-level proportions of incarceration is presented to showcase the practical utility of our methodology.
State evolution beyond first-order methods I: Rigorous predictions and finite-sample guarantees
Celentano, Michael, Cheng, Chen, Pananjady, Ashwin, Verchand, Kabir Aladin
We develop a toolbox for exact analysis of iterative algorithms on a class of high-dimensional nonconvex optimization problems with random data. While prior work has shown that low-dimensional statistics of (generalized) first-order methods can be predicted by a deterministic recursion known as state evolution, our focus is on developing such a prediction for a more general class of algorithms. We provide a state evolution for any method whose iterations are given by (possibly interleaved) first-order and saddle point updates, showing two main results. First, we establish a rigorous state evolution prediction that holds even when the updates are not coordinate-wise separable. Second, we establish finite-sample guarantees bounding the deviation of the empirical updates from the established state evolution. In the process, we develop a technical toolkit that may prove useful in related problems. One component of this toolkit is a general Hilbert space lifting technique to prove existence and uniqueness of a convenient parameterization of the state evolution. Another component of the toolkit combines a generic application of Bolthausen's conditioning method with a sequential variant of Gordon's Gaussian comparison inequality, and provides additional ingredients that enable a general finite-sample analysis.
RestoreAI -- Pattern-based Risk Estimation Of Remaining Explosives
Kischelewski, Bjรถrn, Guedj, Benjamin, Wahl, David
Landmine removal is a slow, resource-intensive process affecting over 60 countries. While AI has been proposed to enhance explosive ordnance (EO) detection, existing methods primarily focus on object recognition, with limited attention to prediction of landmine risk based on spatial pattern information. This work aims to answer the following research question: How can AI be used to predict landmine risk from landmine patterns to improve clearance time efficiency? To that effect, we introduce RestoreAI, an AI system for pattern-based risk estimation of remaining explosives. RestoreAI is the first AI system that leverages landmine patterns for risk prediction, improving the accuracy of estimating the residual risk of missing EO prior to land release. We particularly focus on the implementation of three instances of RestoreAI, respectively, linear, curved and Bayesian pattern deminers. First, the linear pattern deminer uses linear landmine patterns from a principal component analysis (PCA) for the landmine risk prediction. Second, the curved pattern deminer uses curved landmine patterns from principal curves. Finally, the Bayesian pattern deminer incorporates prior expert knowledge by using a Bayesian pattern risk prediction. Evaluated on real-world landmine data, RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency. The top-performing pattern-based deminers achieved a 14.37 percentage point increase in the average share of cleared landmines per timestep and required 24.45% less time than the best baseline deminer to locate all landmines. Interestingly, linear and curved pattern deminers showed no significant performance difference, suggesting that more efficient linear patterns are a viable option for risk prediction.
Improving Group Fairness in Tensor Completion via Imbalance Mitigating Entity Augmentation
Ahn, Dawon, Jang, Jun-Gi, Papalexakis, Evangelos E.
Group fairness is important to consider in tensor decomposition to prevent discrimination based on social grounds such as gender or age. Although few works have studied group fairness in tensor decomposition, they suffer from performance degradation. To address this, we propose STAFF(Sparse Tensor Augmentation For Fairness) to improve group fairness by minimizing the gap in completion errors of different groups while reducing the overall tensor completion error. Our main idea is to augment a tensor with augmented entities including sufficient observed entries to mitigate imbalance and group bias in the sparse tensor. We evaluate \method on tensor completion with various datasets under conventional and deep learning-based tensor models. STAFF consistently shows the best trade-off between completion error and group fairness; at most, it yields 36% lower MSE and 59% lower MADE than the second-best baseline.
On Using the Shapley Value for Anomaly Localization: A Statistical Investigation
Blum, Rick S., Freytag, Franziska
--Recent publications have suggested using the Shapley value for anomaly localization for sensor data systems. Using a reasonable mathematical anomaly model for full control, experiments indicate that using a single fixed term in the Shapley value calculation achieves a lower complexity anomaly localization test, with the same probability of error, as a test using the Shapley value for all cases tested. A proof demonstrates these conclusions must be true for all independent observation cases. For dependent observation cases, no proof is available. The incorporation of sensors into many systems provides important advantages [1]-[7]. Sensor data is highly vulnerable to cyber attacks and cyber attacks on sensor data can cause tremendous damage.
Automating Thematic Review of Prevention of Future Deaths Reports: Replicating the ONS Child Suicide Study using Large Language Models
Osian, Sam, Dutta, Arpan, Bhandari, Sahil, Buchan, Iain E., Joyce, Dan W.
Prevention of Future Deaths (PFD) reports, issued by coroners in England and Wales, flag systemic hazards that may lead to further loss of life. Analysis of these reports has previously been constrained by the manual effort required to identify and code relevant cases. In 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published a national thematic review of child-suicide PFD reports ($\leq$ 18 years), identifying 37 cases from January 2015 to November 2023 - a process based entirely on manual curation and coding. We evaluated whether a fully automated, open source "text-to-table" language-model pipeline (PFD Toolkit) could reproduce the ONS's identification and thematic analysis of child-suicide PFD reports, and assessed gains in efficiency and reliability. All 4,249 PFD reports published from July 2013 to November 2023 were processed via PFD Toolkit's large language model pipelines. Automated screening identified cases where the coroner attributed death to suicide in individuals aged 18 or younger, and eligible reports were coded for recipient category and 23 concern sub-themes, replicating the ONS coding frame. PFD Toolkit identified 72 child-suicide PFD reports - almost twice the ONS count. Three blinded clinicians adjudicated a stratified sample of 144 reports to validate the child-suicide screening. Against the post-consensus clinical annotations, the LLM-based workflow showed substantial to almost-perfect agreement (Cohen's $ฮบ$ = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.66-0.98, raw agreement = 91%). The end-to-end script runtime was 8m 16s, transforming a process that previously took months into one that can be completed in minutes. This demonstrates that automated LLM analysis can reliably and efficiently replicate manual thematic reviews of coronial data, enabling scalable, reproducible, and timely insights for public health and safety. The PFD Toolkit is openly available for future research.
Prostate Cancer Classification Using Multimodal Feature Fusion and Explainable AI
Khan, Asma Sadia, Khan, Fariba Tasnia, Mahmud, Tanjim, Khan, Salman Karim, Chakma, Rishita, Sharmen, Nahed, Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat, Andersson, Karl
Prostate cancer, the second most prevalent male malignancy, requires advanced diagnostic tools. We propose an explainable AI system combining BERT (for textual clinical notes) and Random Forest (for numerical lab data) through a novel multimodal fusion strategy, achieving superior classification performance on PLCO-NIH dataset (98% accuracy, 99% AUC). While multimodal fusion is established, our work demonstrates that a simple yet interpretable BERT+RF pipeline delivers clinically significant improvements - particularly for intermediate cancer stages (Class 2/3 recall: 0.900 combined vs 0.824 numerical/0.725 textual). SHAP analysis provides transparent feature importance rankings, while ablation studies prove textual features' complementary value. This accessible approach offers hospitals a balance of high performance (F1=89%), computational efficiency, and clinical interpretability - addressing critical needs in prostate cancer diagnostics.
Towards trustworthy AI in materials mechanics through domain-guided attention
Talies, Jesco, Breitbarth, Eric, Melching, David
Ensuring the trustworthiness and robustness of deep learning models remains a fundamental challenge, particularly in high-stakes scientific applications. In this study, we present a framework called attention-guided training that combines explainable artificial intelligence techniques with quantitative evaluation and domain-specific priors to guide model attention. We demonstrate that domain specific feedback on model explanations during training can enhance the model's generalization capabilities. We validate our approach on the task of semantic crack tip segmentation in digital image correlation data which is a key application in the fracture mechanical characterization of materials. By aligning model attention with physically meaningful stress fields, such as those described by Williams' analytical solution, attention-guided training ensures that the model focuses on physically relevant regions. This finally leads to improved generalization and more faithful explanations.