Welcome to our monthly digest, where you can catch up with any AIhub stories you may have missed, peruse the latest news, recap recent events, and more. This month, we take a trip around some of the RoboCup leagues, check in at ICML, learn about the NASA onboard AI research platform, and explore feedback in human-robot interactions. This month saw the running of RoboCup 2025, with the event taking place in Salvador, Brazil, from 15-21 July. Ahead of kick-off, we spoke to the general chair Marco Simões and caught up with Ana Patrícia Magalhães, lead organizer for RoboCupJunior, to find out more about their plans for the week. You can find out what the participants got up to in our two round-ups from social media: #RoboCup2025: social media round-up 1 #RoboCup2025: social media round-up part 2. If you missed the action, you can find the recordings of the livestreams here.

President Donald Trump was elected on a promise to secure the border and deport illegal aliens. On day one, he declared a national emergency, rescinded Biden-era catch-and-release policies, and restored a clear legal standard of entry. In June, illegal crossings hit a record low for the second consecutive month. And once again, not a single illegal border crosser was released into the interior. This is more than a return to normality; it is the most secure border in American history.

Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate. We introduce a new decomposition of LP estimates into the sum of contributions of historical events, which is the product, for each time stamp, of a weight and the realization of the response variable. In the least squares case, we show that these weights admit two interpretations. First, they represent purified and standardized shocks. Second, they serve as proximity scores between the projected policy intervention and past interventions in the sample. Notably, this second interpretation extends naturally to machine learning methods, many of which yield impulse responses that, while nonlinear in predictors, still aggregate past outcomes linearly via proximity-based weights. Applying this framework to shocks in monetary and fiscal policy, global temperature, and the excess bond premium, we find that easily identifiable events-such as Nixon's interference with the Fed, stagflation, World War II, and the Mount Agung volcanic eruption-emerge as dominant drivers of often heavily concentrated impulse response estimates.

Researchers have adopted deep learning for classical discrete choice analysis as it can capture complex feature relationships and achieve higher predictive performance. However, the existing deep learning approaches cannot explicitly capture the relationship among choice alternatives, which has been a long-lasting focus in classical discrete choice models. To address the gap, this paper introduces Graph Neural Network (GNN) as a novel framework to analyze residential location choice. The GNN-based discrete choice models (GNN-DCMs) offer a structured approach for neural networks to capture dependence among spatial alternatives, while maintaining clear connections to classical random utility theory. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the GNN-DCMs incorporate the nested logit (NL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model as two specific cases, yielding novel algorithmic interpretation through message passing among alternatives' utilities. Empirically, the GNN-DCMs outperform benchmark MNL, SCL, and feedforward neural networks in predicting residential location choices among Chicago's 77 community areas. Regarding model interpretation, the GNN-DCMs can capture individual heterogeneity and exhibit spatially-aware substitution patterns. Overall, these results highlight the potential of GNN-DCMs as a unified and expressive framework for synergizing discrete choice modeling and deep learning in the complex spatial choice contexts.

InsurTech refers to the use of state-of-the-art technology, including both emerging hardware and software, to address inefficiencies across the insurance value chain and further explore new opportunities to reshape traditional business operations. InsurTech encompasses a broad spectrum of technology-driven innovations, including, but not limited to, telematics, usage-based insurance, and the integration of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. In this study, we focus on a specific class of InsurTech, an Insurtech data vendor, that provides insurance companies with next-generation data solutions. We leverage new and diverse external data sources, such as social media data and online content, to enrich the internal database, thereby empowering actuarial analytics and gaining more accurate insights into risk profiles and policyholder behavior. Specifically, by integrating alternative data sources beyond traditional information, insurance companies can uncover previously unrecognized risk factors, reduce bias in existing features, and identify more accurate risk exposures based on the operational characteristics of the insured entities.

Traditional machine learning models struggle to generalize in microbiome studies where only metadata is available, especially in small-sample settings or across studies with heterogeneous label formats. In this work, we explore the use of large language models (LLMs) to classify microbial samples into ontology categories such as EMPO 3 and related biological labels, as well as to predict pathogen contamination risk, specifically the presence of E. Coli, using environmental metadata alone. We evaluate LLMs such as ChatGPT-4o, Claude 3.7 Sonnet, Grok-3, and LLaMA 4 in zero-shot and few-shot settings, comparing their performance against traditional models like Random Forests across multiple real-world datasets. Our results show that LLMs not only outperform baselines in ontology classification, but also demonstrate strong predictive ability for contamination risk, generalizing across sites and metadata distributions. These findings suggest that LLMs can effectively reason over sparse, heterogeneous biological metadata and offer a promising metadata-only approach for environmental microbiology and biosurveillance applications.

The data-driven discovery of interpretable models approximating the underlying dynamics of a physical system has gained attraction in the past decade. Current approaches employ pre-specified functional forms or basis functions and often result in models that lack physical meaning and interpretability, let alone represent the true physics of the system. We propose an unsupervised parameter estimation methodology that first finds an approximate general solution, followed by a spline transformation to linearly estimate the coefficients of the governing ordinary differential equation (ODE). The approximate general solution is postulated using the same functional form as the analytical solution of a general homogeneous, linear, constant-coefficient ODE. An added advantage is its ability to produce a high-fidelity, smooth functional form even in the presence of noisy data. The spline approximation obtains gradient information from the functional form which are linearly independent and creates the basis of the gradient matrix. This gradient matrix is used in a linear system to find the coefficients of the ODEs. From the case studies, we observed that our modeling approach discovers ODEs with high accuracy and also promotes sparsity in the solution without using any regularization techniques. The methodology is also robust to noisy data and thus allows the integration of data-driven techniques into real experimental setting for data-driven learning of physical phenomena.

AGI Racing is the view that it is in the self-interest of major actors in AI development, especially powerful nations, to accelerate their frontier AI development to build highly capable AI, especially artificial general intelligence (AGI), before competitors have a chance. We argue against AGI Racing. First, the downsides of racing to AGI are much higher than portrayed by this view. Racing to AGI would substantially increase catastrophic risks from AI, including nuclear instability, and undermine the prospects of technical AI safety research to be effective. Second, the expected benefits of racing may be lower than proponents of AGI Racing hold. In particular, it is questionable whether winning the race enables complete domination over losers. Third, international cooperation and coordination, and perhaps carefully crafted deterrence measures, constitute viable alternatives to racing to AGI which have much smaller risks and promise to deliver most of the benefits that racing to AGI is supposed to provide. Hence, racing to AGI is not in anyone's self-interest as other actions, particularly incentivizing and seeking international cooperation around AI issues, are preferable.

Test-time adaptation with pre-trained vision-language models has gained increasing attention for addressing distribution shifts during testing. Among these approaches, memory-based algorithms stand out due to their training-free nature and ability to leverage historical test data. However, existing test-time adaptation methods are typically designed for a single domain with abundant data. In decentralized settings such as federated learning, applying these methods individually to each client suffers from limited test data, while directly sharing a single global memory via the server prevents proper personalization to each client's unique distribution. To address this, we propose Latte, a novel framework where each client maintains a local memory to store embeddings from its own historical test data and an external memory to store class prototypes from other relevant clients. During communication, each client retrieves prototypes from similar clients under the server's coordination to expand its memory. For local adaptation, Latte utilizes both embedding similarity and uncertainty to enhance model performance. Our theoretical analysis shows that Latte effectively leverages in-distribution clients while remaining robust to out-of-distribution clients. Extensive experiments on domain adaptation and corruption benchmarks validate that Latte achieves superior performance in decentralized settings, while introducing only negligible communication and computation costs. Our code is available at https://github.com/baowenxuan/Latte .

Current evaluations of LLMs in the government domain primarily focus on safety considerations in specific scenarios, while the assessment of the models' own core capabilities, particularly domain relevance, remains insufficient. To address this gap, we propose GovRelBench, a benchmark specifically designed for evaluating the core capabilities of LLMs in the government domain. GovRelBench consists of government domain prompts and a dedicated evaluation tool, GovRelBERT. During the training process of GovRelBERT, we introduce the SoftGovScore method: this method trains a model based on the ModernBERT architecture by converting hard labels to soft scores, enabling it to accurately compute the text's government domain relevance score. This work aims to enhance the capability evaluation framework for large models in the government domain, providing an effective tool for relevant research and practice. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/pan-xi/GovRelBench.