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FALCON: Autonomous Cyber Threat Intelligence Mining with LLMs for IDS Rule Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Signature-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) detect malicious activities by matching network or host activity against predefined rules. These rules are derived from extensive Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI), which includes attack signatures and behavioral patterns obtained through automated tools and manual threat analysis, such as sandboxing. The CTI is then transformed into actionable rules for the IDS engine, enabling real-time detection and prevention. However, the constant evolution of cyber threats necessitates frequent rule updates, which delay deployment time and weaken overall security readiness. Recent advancements in agentic systems powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for autonomous IDS rule generation with internal evaluation. We introduce FALCON, an autonomous agentic framework that generates deployable IDS rules from CTI data in real-time and evaluates them using built-in multi-phased validators. To demonstrate versatility, we target both network (Snort) and host-based (YARA) mediums and construct a comprehensive dataset of IDS rules with their corresponding CTIs. Our evaluations indicate FALCON excels in automatic rule generation, with an average of 95% accuracy validated by qualitative evaluation with 84% inter-rater agreement among multiple cybersecurity analysts across all metrics. These results underscore the feasibility and effectiveness of LLM-driven data mining for real-time cyber threat mitigation.


The Quasi-Creature and the Uncanny Valley of Agency: A Synthesis of Theory and Evidence on User Interaction with Inconsistent Generative AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The user experience with large-scale generative AI is paradoxical: superhuman fluency meets absurd failures in common sense and consistency. This paper argues that the resulting potent frustration is an ontological problem, stemming from the "Quasi-Creature"-an entity simulating intelligence without embodiment or genuine understanding. Interaction with this entity precipitates the "Uncanny Valley of Agency," a framework where user comfort drops when highly agentic AI proves erratically unreliable. Its failures are perceived as cognitive breaches, causing profound cognitive dissonance. Synthesizing HCI, cognitive science, and philosophy of technology, this paper defines the Quasi-Creature and details the Uncanny Valley of Agency. An illustrative mixed-methods study ("Move 78," N=37) of a collaborative creative task reveals a powerful negative correlation between perceived AI efficiency and user frustration, central to the negative experience. This framework robustly explains user frustration with generative AI and has significant implications for the design, ethics, and societal integration of these powerful, alien technologies.


COMET-poly: Machine Translation Metric Grounded in Other Candidates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automated metrics for machine translation attempt to replicate human judgment. Unlike humans, who often assess a translation in the context of multiple alternatives, these metrics typically consider only the source sentence and a single translation. This discrepancy in the evaluation setup may negatively impact the performance of automated metrics. We propose two automated metrics that incorporate additional information beyond the single translation. COMET-polycand uses alternative translations of the same source sentence to compare and contrast with the translation at hand, thereby providing a more informed assessment of its quality. COMET-polyic, inspired by retrieval-based in-context learning, takes in translations of similar source texts along with their human-labeled quality scores to guide the evaluation. We find that including a single additional translation in COMET-polycand improves the segment-level metric performance (0.079 to 0.118 Kendall's tau-b correlation), with further gains when more translations are added. Incorporating retrieved examples in COMET-polyic yields similar improvements (0.079 to 0.116 Kendall's tau-b correlation). We release our models publicly.


Beyond prior knowledge: The predictive role of knowledge-building in Tutor Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When adopting the role of a teacher in learning-by-teaching environments, students often struggle to engage in knowledge-building activities, such as providing explanations and addressing misconceptions. Instead, they frequently default to knowledge-telling behaviors, where they simply dictate what they already know or what to do without deeper reflection, thereby limiting learning. Teachable agents, particularly those capable of posing persistent follow-up questions, have been shown to encourage students (tutors) to shift from knowledge-telling to knowledge-building and enhance tutor learning. Tutor learning encompasses two interrelated types of knowledge: conceptual and procedural knowledge. Research has established a bidirectional relationship between these knowledge types, where improvements in one reinforce the other. This study investigates the role of knowledge-building in mediating the bidirectional relationship between procedural and conceptual learning. Our findings revealed a stable bidirectional relationship between procedural and conceptual knowledge, with higher post-test scores observed among students who engaged in knowledge-building, regardless of their procedural and conceptual pre-test performance. This suggests that knowledge-building serves as a crucial mechanism bridging the gap between students with low prior knowledge and higher conceptual and procedural learning gain.


Language Models For Generalised PDDL Planning: Synthesising Sound and Programmatic Policies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the usage of language models (LMs) for planning over world models specified in the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL). We prompt LMs to generate Python programs that serve as generalised policies for solving PDDL problems from a given domain. Notably, our approach synthesises policies that are provably sound relative to the PDDL domain without reliance on external verifiers. We conduct experiments on competition benchmarks which show that our policies can solve more PDDL problems than PDDL planners and recent LM approaches within a fixed time and memory constraint. Our approach manifests in the LMPlan planner which can solve planning problems with several hundreds of relevant objects. Surprisingly, we observe that LMs used in our framework sometimes plan more effectively over PDDL problems written in meaningless symbols in place of natural language; e.g. rewriting (at dog kitchen) as (p2 o1 o3). This finding challenges hypotheses that LMs reason over word semantics and memorise solutions from its training corpus, and is worth further exploration.


Collaborative Intelligence: Topic Modelling of Large Language Model use in Live Cybersecurity Operations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: This work describes the topic modelling of Security Operations Centre (SOC) use of a large language model (LLM), during live security operations. The goal is to better understand how these specialists voluntarily use this tool. Background: Human-automation teams have been extensively studied, but transformer-based language models have sparked a new wave of collaboration. SOC personnel at a major cybersecurity provider used an LLM to support live security operations. This study examines how these specialists incorporated the LLM into their work. Method: Our data set is the result of 10 months of SOC operators accessing GPT-4 over an internally deployed HTTP-based chat application. We performed two topic modelling exercises, first using the established BERTopic model (Grootendorst, 2022), and second, using a novel topic modeling workflow. Results: Both the BERTopic analysis and novel modelling approach revealed that SOC operators primarily used the LLM to facilitate their understanding of complex text strings. Variations on this use-case accounted for ~40% of SOC LLM usage. Conclusion: SOC operators are required to rapidly interpret complex commands and similar information. Their natural tendency to leverage LLMs to support this activity indicates that their workflow can be supported and augmented by designing collaborative LLM tools for use in the SOC. Application: This work can aid in creating next-generation tools for Security Operations Centres. By understanding common use-cases, we can develop workflows supporting SOC task flow. One example is a right-click context menu for executing a command line analysis LLM call directly in the SOC environment.


Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system for ensemble data assimilation and weather prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, those models still rely on initial conditions from NWP, putting an upper limit on their forecast abilities. A few end-to-end systems have since been proposed, but they have yet to match the forecast skill of state-of-the-art NWP competitors. In this work, we propose Huracan, an observation-driven weather forecasting system which combines an ensemble data assimilation model with a forecast model to produce highly accurate forecasts relying only on observations as inputs. Huracan is not only the first to provide ensemble initial conditions and end-to-end ensemble weather forecasts, but also the first end-to-end system to achieve an accuracy comparable with that of ECMWF ENS, the state-of-the-art NWP competitor, despite using a smaller amount of available observation data. Notably, Huracan matches or exceeds the continuous ranked probability score of ECMWF ENS on 75.4% of the variable and lead time combinations. Our work is a major step forward in end-to-end data-driven weather prediction and opens up opportunities for further improving and revolutionizing operational weather forecasting.


Does Calibration Affect Human Actions?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Calibration has been proposed as a way to enhance the reliability and adoption of machine learning classifiers. We study a particular aspect of this proposal: how does calibrating a classification model affect the decisions made by non-expert humans consuming the model's predictions? We perform a Human-Computer-Interaction (HCI) experiment to ascertain the effect of calibration on (i) trust in the model, and (ii) the correlation between decisions and predictions. We also propose further corrections to the reported calibrated scores based on Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory from behavioral economics, and study the effect of these corrections on trust and decision-making. We find that calibration is not sufficient on its own; the prospect theory correction is crucial for increasing the correlation between human decisions and the model's predictions. While this increased correlation suggests higher trust in the model, responses to ``Do you trust the model more?" are unaffected by the method used.


SALMAN: Stability Analysis of Language Models Through the Maps Between Graph-based Manifolds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent strides in pretrained transformer-based language models have propelled state-of-the-art performance in numerous NLP tasks. Yet, as these models grow in size and deployment, their robustness under input perturbations becomes an increasingly urgent question. Existing robustness methods often diverge between small-parameter and large-scale models (LLMs), and they typically rely on labor-intensive, sample-specific adversarial designs. In this paper, we propose a unified, local (sample-level) robustness framework (SALMAN) that evaluates model stability without modifying internal parameters or resorting to complex perturbation heuristics. Central to our approach is a novel Distance Mapping Distortion (DMD) measure, which ranks each sample's susceptibility by comparing input-to-output distance mappings in a near-linear complexity manner. By demonstrating significant gains in attack efficiency and robust training, we position our framework as a practical, model-agnostic tool for advancing the reliability of transformer-based NLP systems.


Multi-Modal Drift Forecasting of Leeway Objects via Navier-Stokes-Guided CNN and Sequence-to-Sequence Attention-Based Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately predicting the drift (displacement) of leeway objects in maritime environments remains a critical challenge, particularly in time-sensitive scenarios such as search and rescue operations. In this study, we propose a multi-modal machine learning framework that integrates Sentence Transformer embeddings with attention-based sequence-to-sequence architectures to predict the drift of leeway objects in water. We begin by experimentally collecting environmental and physical data, including water current and wind velocities, object mass, and surface area, for five distinct leeway objects. Using simulated data from a Navier-Stokes-based model to train a convolutional neural network on geometrical image representations, we estimate drag and lift coefficients of the leeway objects. These coefficients are then used to derive the net forces responsible for driving the objects' motion. The resulting time series, comprising physical forces, environmental velocities, and object-specific features, combined with textual descriptions encoded via a language model, are inputs to attention-based sequence-to-sequence long-short-term memory and Transformer models, to predict future drift trajectories. We evaluate the framework across multiple time horizons ($1$, $3$, $5$, and $10$ seconds) and assess its generalization across different objects. We compare our approach against a fitted physics-based model and traditional machine learning methods, including recurrent neural networks and temporal convolutional neural networks. Our results show that these multi-modal models perform comparably to traditional models while also enabling longer-term forecasting in place of single-step prediction. Overall, our findings demonstrate the ability of a multi-modal modeling strategy to provide accurate and adaptable predictions of leeway object drift in dynamic maritime conditions.