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From Theory to Practice: Implementing and Evaluating e-Fold Cross-Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces e-fold cross-validation, an energy-efficient alternative to k-fold cross-validation. It dynamically adjusts the number of folds based on a stopping criterion. The criterion checks after each fold whether the standard deviation of the evaluated folds has consistently decreased or remained stable. Once met, the process stops early. We tested e-fold cross-validation on 15 datasets and 10 machine-learning algorithms. On average, it required 4 fewer folds than 10-fold cross-validation, reducing evaluation time, computational resources, and energy use by about 40%. Performance differences between e-fold and 10-fold cross-validation were less than 2% for larger datasets. More complex models showed even smaller discrepancies. In 96% of iterations, the results were within the confidence interval, confirming statistical significance. E-fold cross-validation offers a reliable and efficient alternative to k-fold, reducing computational costs while maintaining comparable accuracy.


MMM-RS: A Multi-modal, Multi-GSD, Multi-scene Remote Sensing Dataset and Benchmark for Text-to-Image Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, the diffusion-based generative paradigm has achieved impressive general image generation capabilities with text prompts due to its accurate distribution modeling and stable training process. However, generating diverse remote sensing (RS) images that are tremendously different from general images in terms of scale and perspective remains a formidable challenge due to the lack of a comprehensive remote sensing image generation dataset with various modalities, ground sample distances (GSD), and scenes. In this paper, we propose a Multi-modal, Multi-GSD, Multi-scene Remote Sensing (MMM-RS) dataset and benchmark for text-to-image generation in diverse remote sensing scenarios. Specifically, we first collect nine publicly available RS datasets and conduct standardization for all samples. To bridge RS images to textual semantic information, we utilize a large-scale pretrained vision-language model to automatically output text prompts and perform hand-crafted rectification, resulting in information-rich text-image pairs (including multi-modal images). In particular, we design some methods to obtain the images with different GSD and various environments (e.g., low-light, foggy) in a single sample. With extensive manual screening and refining annotations, we ultimately obtain a MMM-RS dataset that comprises approximately 2.1 million text-image pairs. Extensive experimental results verify that our proposed MMM-RS dataset allows off-the-shelf diffusion models to generate diverse RS images across various modalities, scenes, weather conditions, and GSD. The dataset is available at https://github.com/ljl5261/MMM-RS.


Extreme Precipitation Nowcasting using Multi-Task Latent Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning models have made remarkable strides in precipitation prediction, yet they continue to struggle with capturing the spatial details of the features of radar images, particularly over high precipitation intensity areas. This shortcoming is evident in the form of low forecast accuracy in the spatial positioning of radar echo images across varying precipitation intensity regions. To address this challenge, we introduce the multi-task latent diffusion model(MTLDM), a novel approach for precipitation prediction. The basic concept of the MTLDM is based on the understanding that the radar image representing precipitation is the result of multiple factors. Therefore, we adopt a divide-and-conquer approach, that is, we decompose the radar image using decomposition technology and then predict the decomposed sub-images separately. We conceptualize the precipitation image as a composition of various components corresponding to different precipitation intensities. The MTLDM decomposes the precipitation image into these distinct components and employs a dedicated task to predict each one. This method enables spatiotemporally consistent prediction of real-world precipitation areas up to 5-80 min in advance, outperforming existing state-of-the-art techniques across multiple evaluation metrics.


DeepMIDE: A Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Method for Ultra-Scale Offshore Wind Energy Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To unlock access to stronger winds, the offshore wind industry is advancing with significantly larger and taller wind turbines. This massive upscaling motivates a departure from univariate wind forecasting methods that traditionally focused on a single representative height. To fill this gap, we propose DeepMIDE--a statistical deep learning method which jointly models the offshore wind speeds across space, time, and height. DeepMIDE is formulated as a multi-output integro-difference equation model with a multivariate, nonstationary, and state-dependent kernel characterized by a set of advection vectors that encode the physics of wind field formation and propagation. Embedded within DeepMIDE, an advanced deep learning architecture learns these advection vectors from high dimensional streams of exogenous weather information, which, along with other parameters, are plugged back into the statistical model for probabilistic multi-height space-time forecasting. Tested on real-world data from future offshore wind energy sites in the Northeastern United States, the wind speed and power forecasts from DeepMIDE are shown to outperform those from prevalent time series, spatio-temporal, and deep learning methods.


HIRO: Heuristics Informed Robot Online Path Planning Using Pre-computed Deterministic Roadmaps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dividing robot environments into static and dynamic elements, we use the static part for initializing a deterministic roadmap, which provides a lower bound of the final path cost as informed heuristics for fast path-finding. These heuristics guide a search tree to explore the roadmap during runtime. The search tree examines the edges using a fuzzy collision checking concerning the dynamic environment. Finally, the heuristics tree exploits knowledge fed back from the fuzzy collision checking module and updates the lower bound for the path cost. As we demonstrate in real-world experiments, the closed-loop formed by these three components significantly accelerates the planning procedure. An additional backtracking step ensures the feasibility of the resulting paths. Experiments in simulation and the real world show that HIRO can find collision-free paths considerably faster than baseline methods with and without prior knowledge of the environment.


Gradient Rewiring for Editable Graph Neural Network Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep neural networks are ubiquitously adopted in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and graph analytics. However, well-trained neural networks can make prediction errors after deployment as the world changes. \textit{Model editing} involves updating the base model to correct prediction errors with less accessible training data and computational resources. Despite recent advances in model editors in computer vision and natural language processing, editable training in graph neural networks (GNNs) is rarely explored. The challenge with editable GNN training lies in the inherent information aggregation across neighbors, which can lead model editors to affect the predictions of other nodes unintentionally. In this paper, we first observe the gradient of cross-entropy loss for the target node and training nodes with significant inconsistency, which indicates that directly fine-tuning the base model using the loss on the target node deteriorates the performance on training nodes. Motivated by the gradient inconsistency observation, we propose a simple yet effective \underline{G}radient \underline{R}ewiring method for \underline{E}ditable graph neural network training, named \textbf{GRE}. Specifically, we first store the anchor gradient of the loss on training nodes to preserve the locality. Subsequently, we rewire the gradient of the loss on the target node to preserve performance on the training node using anchor gradient. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of GRE on various model architectures and graph datasets in terms of multiple editing situations. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/zhimengj0326/Gradient_rewiring_editing}


Advancing Gasoline Consumption Forecasting: A Novel Hybrid Model Integrating Transformers, LSTM, and CNN

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Iran, endowed with abundant hydrocarbon resources, plays a crucial role in the global energy landscape. Gasoline, as a critical fuel, significantly supports the nation's transportation sector. Accurate forecasting of gasoline consumption is essential for strategic resource management and environmental planning. This research introduces a novel approach to predicting monthly gasoline consumption using a hybrid Transformer-LSTM-CNN model, which integrates the strengths of Transformer networks, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). This advanced architecture offers a superior alternative to conventional methods such as artificial neural networks and regression models by capturing both short- and long-term dependencies in time series data. By leveraging the self-attention mechanism of Transformers, the temporal memory of LSTMs, and the local pattern detection of CNNs, our hybrid model delivers improved prediction accuracy. Implemented using Python, the model provides precise future gasoline consumption forecasts and evaluates the environmental impact through the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines gasoline consumption trends from 2007 to 2021, which rose from 64.5 million liters per day in 2007 to 99.80 million liters per day in 2021. Our proposed model forecasts consumption levels up to 2031, offering a valuable tool for policymakers and energy analysts. The results highlight the superiority of this hybrid model in improving the accuracy of gasoline consumption forecasts, reinforcing the need for advanced machine learning techniques to optimize resource management and mitigate environmental risks in the energy sector.


Revealing and Reducing Gender Biases in Vision and Language Assistants (VLAs)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have been reliably integrated with visual input for multimodal tasks. We study gender bias in 22 popular open-source VLAs with respect to personality traits, skills, and occupations. Our results show that VLAs replicate human biases likely present in the data, such as real-world occupational imbalances. Similarly, they tend to attribute more skills and positive personality traits to women than to men, and we see a consistent tendency to associate negative personality traits with men. To eliminate the gender bias in these models, we find that finetuning-based debiasing methods achieve the best tradeoff between debiasing and retaining performance on downstream task. We argue for pre-deploying gender bias assessment in VLAs and motivate further development of debiasing strategies to ensure equitable societal outcomes. Rapid progress in large language models (LLMs) has sparked a wave of innovation fusing visual encoding modules with LLMs, which ...


Double Difference Earthquake Location with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Double difference earthquake relocation is an essential component of many earthquake catalog development workflows. This technique produces high-resolution relative relocations between events by minimizing differential measurements of the arrival times of waves from nearby sources, which highlights the resolution of faults and improves interpretation of seismic activity. The inverse problem is typically solved iteratively using conjugate-gradient minimization, however the cost scales significantly with the total number of sources and stations considered. Here we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) based earthquake double-difference relocation framework, Graph Double Difference (GraphDD), that is trained to minimize the double-difference residuals of a catalog to locate earthquakes. Through batching and sampling the method can scale to arbitrarily large catalogs. Our architecture uses one graph to represent the stations, a second graph to represent the sources, and creates the Cartesian product graph between the two graphs to capture the relationships between the stations and sources (e.g., the residuals and travel time partial derivatives). This key feature allows a natural architecture that can be used to minimize the double-difference residuals. We implement our model on several distinct test cases including seismicity from northern California, Turkiye, and northern Chile, which have highly variable data quality, and station and source distributions. We obtain high resolution relocations in these tests, and our model shows adaptability to variable types of loss functions and location objectives, including learning station corrections and mapping into the reference frame of a different catalog. Our results suggest that a GNN approach to double-difference relocation is a promising direction for scaling to very large catalogs and gaining new insights into the relocation problem.


High Resolution Seismic Waveform Generation using Denoising Diffusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate prediction and synthesis of seismic waveforms are crucial for seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant infrastructure design. Existing prediction methods, such as Ground Motion Models and physics-based simulations, often fail to capture the full complexity of seismic wavefields, particularly at higher frequencies. This study introduces a novel, efficient, and scalable generative model for high-frequency seismic waveform generation. Our approach leverages a spectrogram representation of seismic waveform data, which is reduced to a lower-dimensional submanifold via an autoencoder. A state-of-the-art diffusion model is trained to generate this latent representation, conditioned on key input parameters: earthquake magnitude, recording distance, site conditions, and faulting type. The model generates waveforms with frequency content up to 50 Hz. Any scalar ground motion statistic, such as peak ground motion amplitudes and spectral accelerations, can be readily derived from the synthesized waveforms. We validate our model using commonly used seismological metrics, and performance metrics from image generation studies. Our results demonstrate that our openly available model can generate distributions of realistic high-frequency seismic waveforms across a wide range of input parameters, even in data-sparse regions. For the scalar ground motion statistics commonly used in seismic hazard and earthquake engineering studies, we show that the model accurately reproduces both the median trends of the real data and its variability. To evaluate and compare the growing number of this and similar 'Generative Waveform Models' (GWM), we argue that they should generally be openly available and that they should be included in community efforts for ground motion model evaluations.