Statistical downscaling is a technique used in climate modeling to increase the resolution of climate simulations. High-resolution climate information is essential for various high-impact applications, including natural hazard risk assessment. However, simulating climate at high resolution is intractable. Thus, climate simulations are often conducted at a coarse scale and then downscaled to the desired resolution. Existing downscaling techniques are either simulation-based methods with high computational costs, or statistical approaches with limitations in accuracy or application specificity. We introduce Generative Bias Correction and Super-Resolution (GenBCSR), a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling that overcomes the limitations of previous methods. GenBCSR employs two transformations to match high-dimensional distributions at different resolutions: (i) the first stage, bias correction, aligns the distributions at coarse scale, (ii) the second stage, statistical super-resolution, lifts the corrected coarse distribution by introducing fine-grained details. Each stage is instantiated by a state-of-the-art generative model, resulting in an efficient and effective computational pipeline for the well-studied distribution matching problem. By framing the downscaling problem as distribution matching, GenBCSR relaxes the constraints of supervised learning, which requires samples to be aligned. Despite not requiring such correspondence, we show that GenBCSR surpasses standard approaches in predictive accuracy of critical impact variables, particularly in predicting the tails (99% percentile) of composite indexes composed of interacting variables, achieving up to 4-5 folds of error reduction.

Forecasting accuracy in highly uncertain environments is challenging due to the stochastic nature of systems. Deterministic forecasting provides only point estimates and cannot capture potential outcomes. Therefore, probabilistic forecasting has gained significant attention due to its ability to quantify uncertainty, where one of the approaches is to express it as a prediction interval (PI), that explicitly shows upper and lower bounds of predictions associated with a confidence level. High-quality PI is characterized by a high PI coverage probability (PICP) and a narrow PI width. In many real-world applications, the PI width is generally used in risk management to prepare resources that improve reliability and effectively manage uncertainty. A wider PI width results in higher costs for backup resources as decision-making processes often focus on the worst-case scenarios arising with large PI widths under extreme conditions. This study aims to reduce the large PI width from the PI estimation method by proposing a new PI loss function that penalizes the average of the large PI widths more heavily. The proposed formulation is compatible with gradient-based algorithms, the standard approach to training neural networks (NNs), and integrating state-of-the-art NNs and existing deep learning techniques. Experiments with the synthetic dataset reveal that our formulation significantly reduces the large PI width while effectively maintaining the PICP to achieve the desired probability. The practical implementation of our proposed loss function is demonstrated in solar irradiance forecasting, highlighting its effectiveness in minimizing the large PI width in data with high uncertainty and showcasing its compatibility with more complex neural network models. Therefore, reducing large PI widths from our method can lead to significant cost savings by over-allocation of reserve resources.

Recently, deep learning methods have gained remarkable achievements in the field of image restoration for remote sensing (RS). However, most existing RS image restoration methods focus mainly on conventional first-order degradation models, which may not effectively capture the imaging mechanisms of remote sensing images. Furthermore, many RS image restoration approaches that use deep learning are often criticized for their lacks of architecture transparency and model interpretability. To address these problems, we propose a novel progressive restoration network for high-order degradation imaging (HDI-PRNet), to progressively restore different image degradation. HDI-PRNet is developed based on the theoretical framework of degradation imaging, offering the benefit of mathematical interpretability within the unfolding network. The framework is composed of three main components: a module for image denoising that relies on proximal mapping prior learning, a module for image deblurring that integrates Neumann series expansion with dual-domain degradation learning, and a module for super-resolution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance on both synthetic and real remote sensing images.

Fidelity quantum kernels have shown promise in classification tasks, particularly when a group structure in the data can be identified and exploited through a covariant feature map. In fact, there exist classification problems on which covariant kernels provide a provable advantage, thus establishing a separation between quantum and classical learners. However, their practical application poses two challenges: on one side, the group structure may be unknown and approximate in real-world data, and on the other side, scaling to the `utility' regime (above 100 qubits) is affected by exponential concentration. In this work, we address said challenges by applying fidelity kernels to real-world data with unknown structure, related to the scheduling of a fleet of electric vehicles, and to synthetic data generated from the union of subspaces, which is then close to many relevant real-world datasets. Furthermore, we propose a novel error mitigation strategy specifically tailored for fidelity kernels, called Bit Flip Tolerance (BFT), to alleviate the exponential concentration in our utility-scale experiments. Our multiclass classification reaches accuracies comparable to classical SVCs up to 156 qubits, thus constituting the largest experimental demonstration of quantum machine learning on IBM devices to date. For the real-world data experiments, the effect of the proposed BFT becomes manifest on 40+ qubits, where mitigated accuracies reach 80%, in line with classical, compared to 33% without BFT. Through the union-of-subspace synthetic dataset with 156 qubits, we demonstrate a mitigated accuracy of 80%, compared to 83% of classical models, and 37% of unmitigated quantum, using a test set of limited size.

We consider the problem of finite-horizon sequential experimental design to solve multi-objective optimization (MOO) of expensive black-box objective functions. This problem arises in many real-world applications, including materials design, where we have a small resource budget to make and evaluate candidate materials in the lab. We solve this problem using the framework of Bayesian optimization (BO) and propose the first set of non-myopic methods for MOO problems. Prior work on non-myopic BO for single-objective problems relies on the Bellman optimality principle to handle the lookahead reasoning process. However, this principle does not hold for most MOO problems because the reward function needs to satisfy some conditions: scalar variable, monotonicity, and additivity. We address this challenge by using hypervolume improvement (HVI) as our scalarization approach, which allows us to use a lower-bound on the Bellman equation to approximate the finite-horizon using a batch expected hypervolume improvement (EHVI) acquisition function (AF) for MOO. Our formulation naturally allows us to use other improvement-based scalarizations and compare their efficacy to HVI. We derive three non-myopic AFs for MOBO: 1) the Nested AF, which is based on the exact computation of the lower bound, 2) the Joint AF, which is a lower bound on the nested AF, and 3) the BINOM AF, which is a fast and approximate variant based on batch multi-objective acquisition functions. Our experiments on multiple diverse real-world MO problems demonstrate that our non-myopic AFs substantially improve performance over the existing myopic AFs for MOBO.

The global Biochar Industry has witnessed a surge in biochar production, with a total of 350k mt/year production in 2023. With the pressing climate goals set and the potential of Biochar Carbon Removal (BCR) as a climate-relevant technology, scaling up the number of new plants to over 1000 facilities per year by 2030 becomes imperative. However, such a massive scale-up presents not only technical challenges but also control and regulation issues, ensuring maximal output of plants while conforming to regulatory requirements. In this paper, we present a novel method of optimizing the process of a biochar plant based on machine learning methods. We show how a standard Random Forest Regressor can be used to model the states of the pyrolysis machine, the physics of which remains highly complex. This model then serves as a surrogate of the machine -- reproducing several key outcomes of the machine -- in a numerical optimization. This, in turn, could enable us to reduce NOx emissions -- a key regulatory goal in that industry -- while achieving maximal output still. In a preliminary test our approach shows remarkable results, proves to be applicable on two different machines from different manufacturers, and can be implemented on standard Internet of Things (IoT) devices more generally.

Extraction of building footprint polygons from remotely sensed data is essential for several urban understanding tasks such as reconstruction, navigation, and mapping. Despite significant progress in the area, extracting accurate polygonal building footprints remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce Pix2Poly, an attention-based end-to-end trainable and differentiable deep neural network capable of directly generating explicit high-quality building footprints in a ring graph format. Pix2Poly employs a generative encoder-decoder transformer to produce a sequence of graph vertex tokens whose connectivity information is learned by an optimal matching network. Compared to previous graph learning methods, ours is a truly end-to-end trainable approach that extracts high-quality building footprints and road networks without requiring complicated, computationally intensive raster loss functions and intricate training pipelines. Upon evaluating Pix2Poly on several complex and challenging datasets, we report that Pix2Poly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in several vector shape quality metrics while being an entirely explicit method. Our code is available at https://github.com/yeshwanth95/Pix2Poly.

Recent advanced large language models (LLMs) have showcased their emergent capability of in-context learning, facilitating intelligent decision-making through natural language prompts without retraining. This new machine learning paradigm has shown promise in various fields, including general control and optimization problems. Inspired by these advancements, we explore the potential of LLMs for a specific and essential engineering task: parametric shape optimization (PSO). We develop an optimization framework, LLM-PSO, that leverages an LLM to determine the optimal shape of parameterized engineering designs in the spirit of evolutionary strategies. Utilizing the ``Claude 3.5 Sonnet'' LLM, we evaluate LLM-PSO on two benchmark flow optimization problems, specifically aiming to identify drag-minimizing profiles for 1) a two-dimensional airfoil in laminar flow, and 2) a three-dimensional axisymmetric body in Stokes flow. In both cases, LLM-PSO successfully identifies optimal shapes in agreement with benchmark solutions. Besides, it generally converges faster than other classical optimization algorithms. Our preliminary exploration may inspire further investigations into harnessing LLMs for shape optimization and engineering design more broadly.

Fully automated self-driving laboratories are promising to enable high-throughput and large-scale scientific discovery by reducing repetitive labour. However, effective automation requires deep integration of laboratory knowledge, which is often unstructured, multimodal, and difficult to incorporate into current AI systems. This paper introduces the k-agents framework, designed to support experimentalists in organizing laboratory knowledge and automating experiments with agents. Our framework employs large language model-based agents to encapsulate laboratory knowledge including available laboratory operations and methods for analyzing experiment results. To automate experiments, we introduce execution agents that break multi-step experimental procedures into state machines, interact with other agents to execute each step and analyze the experiment results. The analyzed results are then utilized to drive state transitions, enabling closed-loop feedback control. To demonstrate its capabilities, we applied the agents to calibrate and operate a superconducting quantum processor, where they autonomously planned and executed experiments for hours, successfully producing and characterizing entangled quantum states at the level achieved by human scientists. Our knowledge-based agent system opens up new possibilities for managing laboratory knowledge and accelerating scientific discovery.

This paper introduces a novel approach to detect and address faulty or corrupted external sensors in the context of inertial navigation by leveraging a switching Kalman Filter combined with parameter augmentation. Instead of discarding the corrupted data, the proposed method retains and processes it, running multiple observation models simultaneously and evaluating their likelihoods to accurately identify the true state of the system. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach to both identify the moment that a sensor becomes faulty and to correct for the resulting sensor behavior to maintain accurate estimates. We demonstrate our approach on an application of balloon navigation in the atmosphere and shuttle reentry. The results show that our method can accurately recover the true system state even in the presence of significant sensor bias, thereby improving the robustness and reliability of state estimation systems under challenging conditions. We also provide a statistical analysis of problem settings to determine when and where our method is most accurate and where it fails.