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 Energy


Identifying Dealbreakers and Robust Policies for the Energy Transition Amid Unexpected Events

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.


Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization for Networked Black-Box Systems: A Path to Greener Profits and Smarter Designs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Designing modern industrial systems requires balancing several competing objectives, such as profitability, resilience, and sustainability, while accounting for complex interactions between technological, economic, and environmental factors. Multi-objective optimization (MOO) methods are commonly used to navigate these tradeoffs, but selecting the appropriate algorithm to tackle these problems is often unclear, particularly when system representations vary from fully equation-based (white-box) to entirely data-driven (black-box) models. While grey-box MOO methods attempt to bridge this gap, they typically impose rigid assumptions on system structure, requiring models to conform to the underlying structural assumptions of the solver rather than the solver adapting to the natural representation of the system of interest. In this chapter, we introduce a unifying approach to grey-box MOO by leveraging network representations, which provide a general and flexible framework for modeling interconnected systems as a series of function nodes that share various inputs and outputs. Specifically, we propose MOBONS, a novel Bayesian optimization-inspired algorithm that can efficiently optimize general function networks, including those with cyclic dependencies, enabling the modeling of feedback loops, recycle streams, and multi-scale simulations - features that existing methods fail to capture. Furthermore, MOBONS incorporates constraints, supports parallel evaluations, and preserves the sample efficiency of Bayesian optimization while leveraging network structure for improved scalability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MOBONS through two case studies, including one related to sustainable process design. By enabling efficient MOO under general graph representations, MOBONS has the potential to significantly enhance the design of more profitable, resilient, and sustainable engineering systems.


A Framework for Semantics-based Situational Awareness during Mobile Robot Deployments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Deployment of robots into hazardous environments typically involves a "Human-Robot T eaming" (HRT) paradigm, in which a human supervisor interacts with a remotely operating robot inside the hazardous zone. Situational A wareness (SA) is vital for enabling HRT, to support navigation, planning, and decision-making. This paper explores issues of higher-level "semantic" information and understanding in SA. In semi-autonomous, or variable-autonomy paradigms, different types of semantic information may be important, in different ways, for both the human operator and an autonomous agent controlling the robot. We propose a generalizable framework for acquiring and combining multiple modalities of semantic-level SA during remote deployments of mobile robots. We demonstrate the framework with an example application of search and rescue (SAR) in disaster response robotics. We propose a set of "environment semantic indicators" that can reflect a variety of different types of semantic information, e.g. Based on these indicators, we propose a metric to describe the overall situation of the environment called "Situational Semantic Richness (SSR)". This metric combines multiple semantic indicators to summarise the overall situation. The SSR indicates if an information-rich and complex situation has been encountered, which may require advanced reasoning for robots and humans and hence the attention of the expert human operator . The framework is tested on a Jackal robot in a mock-up disaster response environment. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed semantic indicators are sensitive to changes in different modalities of semantic information in different scenes, and the SSR metric reflects overall semantic changes in the situations encountered. Situational A wareness (SA) is vital for robots deployed in the field to function with sufficient autonomy, resiliency, and robustness.


Spiking Point Transformer for Point Cloud Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer an attractive and energy-efficient alternative to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) due to their sparse binary activation. When SNN meets Transformer, it shows great potential in 2D image processing. However, their application for 3D point cloud remains underexplored. To this end, we present Spiking Point Transformer (SPT), the first transformer-based SNN framework for point cloud classification. Specifically, we first design Queue-Driven Sampling Direct Encoding for point cloud to reduce computational costs while retaining the most effective support points at each time step. We introduce the Hybrid Dynamics Integrate-and-Fire Neuron (HD-IF), designed to simulate selective neuron activation and reduce over-reliance on specific artificial neurons. SPT attains state-of-the-art results on three benchmark datasets that span both real-world and synthetic datasets in the SNN domain. Meanwhile, the theoretical energy consumption of SPT is at least 6.4$\times$ less than its ANN counterpart.


Backpropagation-free Spiking Neural Networks with the Forward-Forward Algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer a biologically inspired computational paradigm that emulates neuronal activity through discrete spike-based processing. Despite their advantages, training SNNs with traditional backpropagation (BP) remains challenging due to computational inefficiencies and a lack of biological plausibility. This study explores the Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm as an alternative learning framework for SNNs. Unlike backpropagation, which relies on forward and backward passes, the FF algorithm employs two forward passes, enabling localized learning, enhanced computational efficiency, and improved compatibility with neuromorphic hardware. We introduce an FF-based SNN training framework and evaluate its performance across both non-spiking (MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10) and spiking (Neuro-MNIST, SHD) datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our model surpasses existing FF-based SNNs by over 5% on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST while achieving accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art backpropagation-trained SNNs. On more complex tasks such as CIFAR-10 and SHD, our approach outperforms other SNN models by up to 6% and remains competitive with leading backpropagation-trained SNNs. These findings highlight the FF algorithm's potential to advance SNN training methodologies and neuromorphic computing by addressing key limitations of backpropagation.


Towards Robust ESG Analysis Against Greenwashing Risks: Aspect-Action Analysis with Cross-Category Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sustainability reports are key for evaluating companies' environmental, social and governance, ESG performance, but their content is increasingly obscured by greenwashing - sustainability claims that are misleading, exaggerated, and fabricated. Yet, existing NLP approaches for ESG analysis lack robustness against greenwashing risks, often extracting insights that reflect misleading or exaggerated sustainability claims rather than objective ESG performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce A3CG - Aspect-Action Analysis with Cross-Category Generalization, as a novel dataset to improve the robustness of ESG analysis amid the prevalence of greenwashing. By explicitly linking sustainability aspects with their associated actions, A3CG facilitates a more fine-grained and transparent evaluation of sustainability claims, ensuring that insights are grounded in verifiable actions rather than vague or misleading rhetoric. Additionally, A3CG emphasizes cross-category generalization. This ensures robust model performance in aspect-action analysis even when companies change their reports to selectively favor certain sustainability areas. Through experiments on A3CG, we analyze state-of-the-art supervised models and LLMs, uncovering their limitations and outlining key directions for future research.


OBELiX: A Curated Dataset of Crystal Structures and Experimentally Measured Ionic Conductivities for Lithium Solid-State Electrolytes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solid-state electrolyte batteries are expected to replace liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries in the near future thanks to their higher theoretical energy density and improved safety. However, their adoption is currently hindered by their lower effective ionic conductivity, a quantity that governs charge and discharge rates. Identifying highly ion-conductive materials using conventional theoretical calculations and experimental validation is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. While machine learning holds the promise to expedite this process, relevant ionic conductivity and structural data is scarce. Here, we present OBELiX, a domain-expert-curated database of $\sim$600 synthesized solid electrolyte materials and their experimentally measured room temperature ionic conductivities gathered from literature. Each material is described by their measured composition, space group and lattice parameters. A full-crystal description in the form of a crystallographic information file (CIF) is provided for ~320 structures for which atomic positions were available. We discuss various statistics and features of the dataset and provide training and testing splits that avoid data leakage. Finally, we benchmark seven existing ML models on the task of predicting ionic conductivity and discuss their performance. The goal of this work is to facilitate the use of machine learning for solid-state electrolyte materials discovery.


Bayesian SegNet for Semantic Segmentation with Improved Interpretation of Microstructural Evolution During Irradiation of Materials

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the relationship between the evolution of microstructures of irradiated LiAlO2 pellets and tritium diffusion, retention and release could improve predictions of tritium-producing burnable absorber rod performance. Given expert-labeled segmented images of irradiated and unirradiated pellets, we trained Deep Convolutional Neural Networks to segment images into defect, grain, and boundary classes. Qualitative microstructural information was calculated from these segmented images to facilitate the comparison of unirradiated and irradiated pellets. We tested modifications to improve the sensitivity of the model, including incorporating meta-data into the model and utilizing uncertainty quantification. The predicted segmentation was similar to the expert-labeled segmentation for most methods of microstructural qualification, including pixel proportion, defect area, and defect density. Overall, the high performance metrics for the best models for both irradiated and unirradiated images shows that utilizing neural network models is a viable alternative to expert-labeled images.


Learning the P2D Model for Lithium-Ion Batteries with SOH Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lithium ion batteries are widely used in many applications. Battery management systems control their optimal use and charging and predict when the battery will cease to deliver the required output on a planned duty or driving cycle. Such systems use a simulation of a mathematical model of battery performance. These models can be electrochemical or data-driven. Electrochemical models for batteries running at high currents are mathematically and computationally complex. In this work, we show that a well-regarded electrochemical model, the Pseudo Two Dimensional (P2D) model, can be replaced by a computationally efficient Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) surrogate model fit to accurately simulated data from a class of random driving cycles. We demonstrate that a CNN is an ideal choice for accurately capturing Lithium ion concentration profiles. Additionally, we show how the neural network model can be adjusted to correspond to battery changes in State of Health (SOH).


Multi-Agent Risks from Advanced AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid development of advanced AI agents and the imminent deployment of many instances of these agents will give rise to multi-agent systems of unprecedented complexity. These systems pose novel and under-explored risks. In this report, we provide a structured taxonomy of these risks by identifying three key failure modes (miscoordination, conflict, and collusion) based on agents' incentives, as well as seven key risk factors (information asymmetries, network effects, selection pressures, destabilising dynamics, commitment problems, emergent agency, and multi-agent security) that can underpin them. We highlight several important instances of each risk, as well as promising directions to help mitigate them. By anchoring our analysis in a range of real-world examples and experimental evidence, we illustrate the distinct challenges posed by multi-agent systems and their implications for the safety, governance, and ethics of advanced AI.