We develop and analyze a method for stochastic simulation optimization relying on Gaussian process models within a trust-region framework. We are interested in the case when the variance of the objective function is large. We propose to rely on replication and local modeling to cope with this high-throughput regime, where the number of evaluations may become large to get accurate results while still keeping good performance. We propose several schemes to encourage replication, from the choice of the acquisition function to setup evaluation costs. Compared with existing methods, our results indicate good scaling, in terms of both accuracy (several orders of magnitude better than existing methods) and speed (taking into account evaluation costs).

Olga Tsurkan, Aleksandra Konstantinova, Aleksandr Sedykh, Dmitrii Zhiganov, Arsenii Senokosov, Daniil Tarpanov, Matvei Anoshin, and Leonid Fedichkin L.D. Landau Dept. of Theoretical Physics, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Institutsky Per. 9, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, 141701 Russia (Dated: April 30, 2025) Predictive maintenance in aerospace heavily relies on accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of jet engines. In this paper, we introduce a Hybrid Quantum Recurrent Neural Network framework, combining Quantum Long Short-Term Memory layers with classical dense layers for Remaining Useful Life forecasting on NASA's Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation dataset. Each Quantum Long Short-Term Memory gate replaces conventional linear transformations with Quantum Depth-Infused circuits, allowing the network to learn high-frequency components more effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that, despite having fewer trainable parameters, the Hybrid Quantum Recurrent Neural Network achieves up to a 5% improvement over a Recurrent Neural Network based on stacked Long Short-Term Memory layers in terms of mean root mean squared error and mean absolute error. Moreover, a thorough comparison of our method with established techniques, including Random Forest, Convolutional Neural Network, and Multilayer Perceptron, demonstrates that our approach, which achieves a Root Mean Squared Error of 15.46, surpasses these baselines by approximately 13.68%, 16.21%, and 7.87%, respectively. Nevertheless, it remains outperformed by certain advanced joint architectures. Our findings highlight the potential of hybrid quantum-classical approaches for robust time-series forecasting under limited data conditions, offering new avenues for enhancing reliability in predictive maintenance tasks. Keywords: Remaining Useful Life, Quantum Machine Learning, Recurrent Neural Network, LSTM, Predictive Maintenance, Time-Series Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical machinery is a cornerstone of modern reliability and risk-management strategies [1-3].

The machine learning pipeline typically involves the iterative process of (1) collecting the data, (2) preparing the data, (3) learning a model, and (4) evaluating a model. Practitioners recognize the importance of the data preparation phase in terms of its impact on the ability to learn accurate models. In this regard, significant attention is often paid to manipulating the feature set (e.g., selection, transformations, dimensionality reduction). A point that is less well appreciated is that transformations on the target variable can also have a large impact on whether it is possible to learn a suitable model. These transformations may include accounting for subject-specific biases (e.g., in how someone uses a rating scale), contexts (e.g., population size effects), and general trends (e.g., inflation). However, this point has received a much more cursory treatment in the existing literature. The goal of this paper is three-fold. First, we aim to highlight the importance of this problem by showing when transforming the target variable has been useful in practice. Second, we will provide a set of generic ``rules of thumb'' that indicate situations when transforming the target variable may be needed. Third, we will discuss which transformations should be considered in a given situation.

Climate change alters ocean conditions, notably temperature and sea level. In the Bay of Bengal, these changes influence monsoon precipitation and marine productivity, critical to the Indian economy. In Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), Global Climate Models (GCMs) use different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to obtain future climate projections. However, significant discrepancies are observed between these models and the reanalysis data in the Bay of Bengal for 2015-2024. Specifically, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the climate model output and the Ocean Reanalysis System (ORAS5) is 1.2C for the sea surface temperature (SST) and 1.1 m for the dynamic sea level (DSL). We introduce a new data-driven deep learning model to correct for this bias. The deep neural model for each variable is trained using pairs of climatology-removed monthly climate projections as input and the corresponding month's ORAS5 as output. This model is trained with historical data (1950 to 2014), validated with future projection data from 2015 to 2020, and tested with future projections from 2021 to 2023. Compared to the conventional EquiDistant Cumulative Distribution Function (EDCDF) statistical method for bias correction in climate models, our approach decreases RMSE by 0.15C for SST and 0.3 m for DSL. The trained model subsequently corrects the projections for 2024-2100. A detailed analysis of the monthly, seasonal, and decadal means and variability is performed to underscore the implications of the novel dynamics uncovered in our corrected projections.

--Water distribution systems in rural areas face serious challenges such as a lack of real-time monitoring, vulnerability to cyberattacks, and unreliable data handling. This paper presents an integrated framework that combines LoRaW ANbased data acquisition, a machine learning-driven Intrusion Detection System (IDS), and a blockchain-enabled Digital Twin (BC-DT) platform for secure and transparent water management. The IDS filters anomalous or spoofed data using a Long Short-T erm Memory (LSTM) Autoencoder and Isolation Forest before validated data is logged via smart contracts on a private Ethereum blockchain using Proof of Authority (PoA) consensus. The verified data feeds into a real-time DT model supporting leak detection, consumption forecasting, and predictive maintenance. Experimental results demonstrate that the system achieves over 80 transactions per second (TPS) with under 2 seconds of latency while remaining cost-effective and scalable for up to 1,000 smart meters. This work demonstrates a practical and secure architecture for decentralized water infrastructure in under-connected rural environments. While remote-sensing techniques have proven valuable for water quality monitoring [1], [2], regarding water distribution, efficient distribution is a significant issue in rural regions, especially where infrastructure is poor and digital monitoring is scarce.

Accurate prediction of material properties facilitates the discovery of novel materials with tailored functionalities. Deep learning models have recently shown superior accuracy and flexibility in capturing structure-property relationships. However, these models often rely on supervised learning, which requires large, well-annotated datasets an expensive and time-consuming process. Self-supervised learning (SSL) offers a promising alternative by pretraining on large, unlabeled datasets to develop foundation models that can be fine-tuned for material property prediction. In this work, we propose supervised pretraining, where available class information serves as surrogate labels to guide learning, even when downstream tasks involve unrelated material properties. We evaluate this strategy on two state-of-the-art SSL models and introduce a novel framework for supervised pretraining. To further enhance representation learning, we propose a graph-based augmentation technique that injects noise to improve robustness without structurally deforming material graphs. The resulting foundation models are fine-tuned for six challenging material property predictions, achieving significant performance gains over baselines, ranging from 2% to 6.67% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) and establishing a new benchmark in material property prediction. This study represents the first exploration of supervised pertaining with surrogate labels in material property prediction, advancing methodology and application in the field.

First-order optimization methods remain the standard for training deep neural networks (DNNs). Optimizers like Adam incorporate limited curvature information by preconditioning the stochastic gradient with a diagonal matrix. Despite the widespread adoption of first-order methods, second-order optimization algorithms often exhibit superior convergence compared to methods like Adam and SGD. However, their practicality in training DNNs is still limited by a significantly higher per-iteration computational cost compared to first-order methods. In this thesis, we present AdaFisher, a novel adaptive second-order optimizer that leverages a diagonal block-Kronecker approximation of the Fisher information matrix to adaptively precondition gradients. AdaFisher aims to bridge the gap between the improved convergence and generalization of second-order methods and the computational efficiency needed for training DNNs. Despite the traditionally slower speed of second-order optimizers, AdaFisher is effective for tasks such as image classification and language modeling, exhibiting remarkable stability and robustness during hyperparameter tuning. We demonstrate that AdaFisher outperforms state-of-the-art optimizers in both accuracy and convergence speed. The code is available from https://github.com/AtlasAnalyticsLab/AdaFisher.

In its report The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change, the Tony Blair Institute argues that global institutions such as COP and the UN have failed to make sufficient progress in halting climate change. At the same time, it argues, the public have lost faith in climate policies because the promised green jobs and economic growth have failed to materialise, thanks in part to global instability and the Covid pandemic. Writing in the foreword, Sir Tony says: "Though most people will accept that climate change is a reality caused by human activity, they're turning away from the politics of the issue because they believe the proposed solutions are not founded on good policy." He says "any strategy based on either'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail". He also warns against the "alarmist" tone of the debate on climate change, which he says is "riven with irrationality".

Generative AI (GenAI) models have become vital across industries, yet current evaluation methods have not adapted to their widespread use. Traditional evaluations often rely on benchmarks and fixed datasets, frequently failing to reflect real-world performance, which creates a gap between lab-tested outcomes and practical applications. This white paper proposes a comprehensive framework for how we should evaluate real-world GenAI systems, emphasizing diverse, evolving inputs and holistic, dynamic, and ongoing assessment approaches. The paper offers guidance for practitioners on how to design evaluation methods that accurately reflect real-time capabilities, and provides policymakers with recommendations for crafting GenAI policies focused on societal impacts, rather than fixed performance numbers or parameter sizes. We advocate for holistic frameworks that integrate performance, fairness, and ethics and the use of continuous, outcome-oriented methods that combine human and automated assessments while also being transparent to foster trust among stakeholders. Implementing these strategies ensures GenAI models are not only technically proficient but also ethically responsible and impactful.

--This paper introduces a novel approach for enabling real-time imitation of human head motion by a Nao robot, with a primary focus on elevating human-robot interactions. By using the robust capabilities of the MediaPipe as a computer vision library and the DeepFace as an emotion recognition library, this research endeavors to capture the subtleties of human head motion, including blink actions and emotional expressions, and seamlessly incorporate these indicators into the robot's responses. The result is a comprehensive framework which facilitates precise head imitation within human-robot interactions, utilizing a closed-loop approach that involves gathering real-time feedback from the robot's imitation performance. This feedback loop ensures a high degree of accuracy in modeling head motion, as evidenced by an impressive R2 score of 96.3 for pitch and 98.9 for yaw. Notably, the proposed approach holds promise in improving communication for children with autism, offering them a valuable tool for more effective interaction. In essence, proposed work explores the integration of real-time head imitation and real-time emotion recognition to enhance human-robot interactions, with potential benefits for individuals with unique communication needs. The field of robotics has come a long way in recent years, with significant advancements in the development of humanoid robots.