On the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico lies the country's only coal-fired power station, flanked by a mountain of toxic ash. The plant, owned by the utility giant AES, has long plagued this part of Puerto Rico with air and water pollution. Before the coal plant opened Guayama had on average just over 103 cancer cases per year. In 2003, the year after the plant opened, the number of cancer cases in the municipality surged by 50%, to 167. In 2022, the most recent year with available data, cases hit a new high of 209.

Time series forecasting underpins vital decision-making across various sectors, yet raw predictions from sophisticated models often harbor systematic errors and biases. We examine the Forecast-Then-Optimize (FTO) framework, pioneering its systematic synopsis. Unlike conventional Predict-Then-Optimize (PTO) methods, FTO explicitly refines forecasts through optimization techniques such as ensemble methods, meta-learners, and uncertainty adjustments. Furthermore, deep learning and large language models have established superiority over traditional parametric forecasting models for most enterprise applications. This paper surveys significant advancements from 2016 to 2025, analyzing mainstream deep learning FTO architectures. Focusing on real-world applications in operations management, we demonstrate FTO's crucial role in enhancing predictive accuracy, robustness, and decision efficacy. Our study establishes foundational guidelines for future forecasting methodologies, bridging theory and operational practicality.

Evaluating anomaly detection in multivariate time series (MTS) requires careful consideration of temporal dependencies, particularly when detecting subsequence anomalies common in fault detection scenarios. While time series cross-validation (TSCV) techniques aim to preserve temporal ordering during model evaluation, their impact on classifier performance remains underexplored. This study systematically investigates the effect of TSCV strategy on the precision-recall characteristics of classifiers trained to detect fault-like anomalies in MTS datasets. We compare walk-forward (WF) and sliding window (SW) methods across a range of validation partition configurations and classifier types, including shallow learners and deep learning (DL) classifiers. Results show that SW consistently yields higher median AUC-PR scores and reduced fold-to-fold performance variance, particularly for deep architectures sensitive to localized temporal continuity. Furthermore, we find that classifier generalization is sensitive to the number and structure of temporal partitions, with overlapping windows preserving fault signatures more effectively at lower fold counts. A classifier-level stratified analysis reveals that certain algorithms, such as random forests (RF), maintain stable performance across validation schemes, whereas others exhibit marked sensitivity. This study demonstrates that TSCV design in benchmarking anomaly detection models on streaming time series and provide guidance for selecting evaluation strategies in temporally structured learning environments.

Inorganic synthesis planning currently relies primarily on heuristic approaches or machine-learning models trained on limited datasets, which constrains its generality. We demonstrate that language models, without task-specific fine-tuning, can recall synthesis conditions. Off-the-shelf models, such as GPT-4.1, Gemini 2.0 Flash and Llama 4 Maverick, achieve a Top-1 precursor-prediction accuracy of up to 53.8 % and a Top-5 performance of 66.1 % on a held-out set of 1,000 reactions. They also predict calcination and sintering temperatures with mean absolute errors below 126 °C, matching specialized regression methods. Ensembling these language models further enhances predictive accuracy and reduces inference cost per prediction by up to 70 %. We subsequently employ language models to generate 28,548 synthetic reaction recipes, which we combine with literature-mined examples to pretrain a transformer-based model, SyntMTE. After fine-tuning on the combined dataset, SyntMTE reduces mean-absolute error in sintering temperature prediction to 73 °C and in calcination temperature to 98 °C. This strategy improves models by up to 8.7 % compared with baselines trained exclusively on experimental data. Finally, in a case study on Li7La3Zr2O12 solid-state electrolytes, we demonstrate that SyntMTE reproduces the experimentally observed dopant-dependent sintering trends. Our hybrid workflow enables scalable, data-efficient inorganic synthesis planning.

Given trajectory data, a domain-specific study area, and a user-defined threshold, we aim to find anomalous trajectories indicative of possible GPS spoofing (e.g., fake trajectory). The problem is societally important to curb illegal activities in international waters, such as unauthorized fishing and illicit oil transfers. The problem is challenging due to advances in AI generated in deep fakes generation (e.g., additive noise, fake trajectories) and lack of adequate amount of labeled samples for ground-truth verification. Recent literature shows promising results for anomalous trajectory detection using generative models despite data sparsity. However, they do not consider fine-scale spatiotemporal dependencies and prior physical knowledge, resulting in higher false-positive rates. To address these limitations, we propose a physics-informed diffusion model that integrates kinematic constraints to identify trajectories that do not adhere to physical laws. Experimental results on real-world datasets in the maritime and urban domains show that the proposed framework results in higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation error rate for anomaly detection and trajectory generation methods, respectively. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/arunshar/Physics-Informed-Diffusion-Probabilistic-Model.

The EUNIS habitat classification is crucial for categorising European habitats, supporting European policy on nature conservation and implementing the Nature Restoration Law. To meet the growing demand for detailed and accurate habitat information, we provide spatial predictions for 260 EUNIS habitat types at hierarchical level 3, together with independent validation and uncertainty analyses. Using ensemble machine learning models, together with high-resolution satellite imagery and ecologically meaningful climatic, topographic and edaphic variables, we produced a European habitat map indicating the most probable EUNIS habitat at 100-m resolution across Europe. Additionally, we provide information on prediction uncertainty and the most probable habitats at level 3 within each EUNIS level 1 formation. This product is particularly useful for both conservation and restoration purposes. Predictions were cross-validated at European scale using a spatial block cross-validation and evaluated against independent data from France (forests only), the Netherlands and Austria. The habitat maps obtained strong predictive performances on the validation datasets with distinct trade-offs in terms of recall and precision across habitat formations.

This paper presents a disturbance-aware framework that embeds robustness into minimum-lap-time trajectory optimization for motorsport. Two formulations are introduced. (i) Open-loop, horizon-based covariance propagation uses worst-case uncertainty growth over a finite window to tighten tire-friction and track-limit constraints. (ii) Closed-loop, covariance-aware planning incorporates a time-varying LQR feedback law in the optimizer, providing a feedback-consistent estimate of disturbance attenuation and enabling sharper yet reliable constraint tightening. Both methods yield reference trajectories for human or artificial drivers: in autonomous applications the modelled controller can replicate the on-board implementation, while for human driving accuracy increases with the extent to which the driver can be approximated by the assumed time-varying LQR policy. Computational tests on a representative Barcelona-Catalunya sector show that both schemes meet the prescribed safety probability, yet the closed-loop variant incurs smaller lap-time penalties than the more conservative open-loop solution, while the nominal (non-robust) trajectory remains infeasible under the same uncertainties. By accounting for uncertainty growth and feedback action during planning, the proposed framework delivers trajectories that are both performance-optimal and probabilistically safe, advancing minimum-time optimization toward real-world deployment in high-performance motorsport and autonomous racing.

In contrast to conventional self-learning approaches, our proposed framework offers an event-driven control strategy and game-theoretic learning algorithms. The players collaborate with the PID controllers to dynamically adjust their gains in response to set point changes and disturbances. We provide a theoretical analysis showing sound convergence guarantees for the game given suitable stability ranges of the PID controlled loop. We further introduce an automatic boundary detection mechanism, which helps the players to find an optimal initialization of action spaces and significantly reduces the exploration time. The efficacy of this novel methodology is validated through its implementation in the temperature control loop of a printing press machine. Eventually, the outcomes of the proposed intelligent self-tuning PID controllers are highly promising, particularly in terms of reducing overshoot and settling time.

Evaluating foundation models for crystallographic reasoning requires benchmarks that isolate generalization behavior while enforcing physical constraints. This work introduces a multiscale multicrystal dataset with two physically grounded evaluation protocols to stress-test multimodal generative models. The Spatial-Exclusion benchmark withholds all supercells of a given radius from a diverse dataset, enabling controlled assessments of spatial interpolation and extrapolation. The Compositional-Exclusion benchmark omits all samples of a specific chemical composition, probing generalization across stoichiometries. Nine vision--language foundation models are prompted with crystallographic images and textual context to generate structural annotations. Responses are evaluated via (i) relative errors in lattice parameters and density, (ii) a physics-consistency index penalizing volumetric violations, and (iii) a hallucination score capturing geometric outliers and invalid space-group predictions. These benchmarks establish a reproducible, physically informed framework for assessing generalization, consistency, and reliability in large-scale multimodal models. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/StressTestingMMFMinCR.

Wind energy significantly contributes to the global shift towards renewable energy, yet operational challenges, such as Leading-Edge Erosion on wind turbine blades, notably reduce energy output. This study introduces an advanced, scalable machine learning framework for condition monitoring of wind turbines, specifically targeting improved detection of anomalies using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data. The framework effectively isolates normal turbine behavior through rigorous preprocessing, incorporating domain-specific rules and anomaly detection filters, including Gaussian Mixture Models and a predictive power score. The data cleaning and feature selection process enables identification of deviations indicative of performance degradation, facilitating estimates of annual energy production losses. The data preprocessing methods resulted in significant data reduction, retaining on average 31% of the original SCADA data per wind farm. Notably, 24 out of 35 turbines exhibited clear performance declines. At the same time, seven improved, and four showed no significant changes when employing the power curve feature set, which consisted of wind speed and ambient temperature. Models such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and KNN consistently captured subtle but persistent declines in turbine performance. The developed framework provides a novel approach to existing condition monitoring methodologies by isolating normal operational data and estimating annual energy loss, which can be a key part in reducing maintenance expenditures and mitigating economic impacts from turbine downtime.