Energy
Data-driven solar forecasting enables near-optimal economic decisions
Dai, Zhixiang, Yin, Minghao, Chen, Xuanhong, Carpentieri, Alberto, Leinonen, Jussi, Bonev, Boris, Zhong, Chengzhe, Kurth, Thorsten, Sun, Jingan, Cherukuri, Ram, Zhang, Yuzhou, Zhang, Ruihua, Hariri, Farah, Ding, Xiaodong, Zhu, Chuanxiang, Zhang, Dake, Cui, Yaodan, Lu, Yuxi, Song, Yue, He, Bin, Chen, Jie, Zhu, Yixin, Xu, Chenheng, Liu, Maofeng, Niu, Zeyi, Qi, Wanpeng, Shan, Xu, Xian, Siyuan, Lin, Ning, Feng, Kairui
Solar energy adoption is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. However, it remains difficult for many industrial and commercial actors to decide on whether they should adopt distributed solar-battery systems, which is largely due to the unavailability of fast, low-cost, and high-resolution irradiance forecasts. Here, we present SunCastNet, a lightweight data-driven forecasting system that provides 0.05$^\circ$, 10-minute resolution predictions of surface solar radiation downwards (SSRD) up to 7 days ahead. SunCastNet, coupled with reinforcement learning (RL) for battery scheduling, reduces operational regret by 76--93\% compared to robust decision making (RDM). In 25-year investment backtests, it enables up to five of ten high-emitting industrial sectors per region to cross the commercial viability threshold of 12\% Internal Rate of Return (IRR). These results show that high-resolution, long-horizon solar forecasts can directly translate into measurable economic gains, supporting near-optimal energy operations and accelerating renewable deployment.
A Comparative Benchmark of Large Language Models for Labelling Wind Turbine Maintenance Logs
Malyi, Max, Shek, Jonathan, McDonald, Alasdair, Biscaya, Andre
Effective Operation and Maintenance (O&M) is critical to reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) from wind power, yet the unstructured, free-text nature of turbine maintenance logs presents a significant barrier to automated analysis. Our paper addresses this by presenting a novel and reproducible framework for benchmarking Large Language Models (LLMs) on the task of classifying these complex industrial records. To promote transparency and encourage further research, this framework has been made publicly available as an open-source tool. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of state-of-the-art proprietary and open-source LLMs, providing a foundational assessment of their trade-offs in reliability, operational efficiency, and model calibration. Our results quantify a clear performance hierarchy, identifying top models that exhibit high alignment with a benchmark standard and trustworthy, well-calibrated confidence scores. We also demonstrate that classification performance is highly dependent on the task's semantic ambiguity, with all models showing higher consensus on objective component identification than on interpretive maintenance actions. Given that no model achieves perfect accuracy and that calibration varies dramatically, we conclude that the most effective and responsible near-term application is a Human-in-the-Loop system, where LLMs act as a powerful assistant to accelerate and standardise data labelling for human experts, thereby enhancing O&M data quality and downstream reliability analysis.
A Robust Approach for LiDAR-Inertial Odometry Without Sensor-Specific Modeling
Malladi, Meher V. R., Guadagnino, Tiziano, Lobefaro, Luca, Stachniss, Cyrill
Figure 1: Our robust LiDAR-inertial odometry system is directly operational in different environments, sensor configurations, and robotic platforms with distinct motion behaviours, all without any change in configuration or modeling approach. We depict the local map result of our odometry system in four distinct scenarios, shown clockwise from the top left: urban city with Ouster OS1-128 and built-in InvenSense IMU mounted on a car; mixed indoor-outdoor university buildings with Hesai QT64 and Alphasense IMU on a backpack (data from Tao et al. [31]); forest with Hesai XT32 and Xsens MTi-100 IMU mounted on the SAHA tree-harvesting machine (see Jelavic et al. [14]); and parking lot with V elodyne VLP-16 and onboard IMU on a Unitree Go1 quadruped (data from Ou et al. [25]). Abstract-- Accurate odometry is a critical component in a robotic navigation stack, and subsequent modules such as planning and control often rely on an estimate of the robot's motion. Sensor-based odometry approaches should be robust across sensor types and deployable in different target domains, from solid-state LiDARs mounted on cars in urban-driving scenarios to spinning LiDARs on handheld packages used in unstructured natural environments. In this paper, we propose a robust LiDAR-inertial odometry system that does not rely on sensor-specific modeling. Sensor fusion techniques for LiDAR and inertial measurement unit (IMU) data typically integrate IMU data iteratively in a Kalman filter or use pre-integration in a factor graph framework, combined with LiDAR scan matching often exploiting some form of feature extraction. We propose an alternative strategy that only requires a simplified motion model for IMU integration and directly registers LiDAR scans in a scan-to-map approach. Our approach allows us to impose a novel regularization on the LiDAR registration, improving the overall odometry performance. We detail extensive experiments on a number of datasets covering a wide array of commonly used robotic sensors and platforms. We show that our approach works with the exact same configuration in all these scenarios, demonstrating its robustness.
MORSE: Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning via Strategy Evolution for Supply Chain Optimization
Kotecha, Niki, Chanona, Ehecatl Antonio del Rio
In supply chain management, decision-making often involves balancing multiple conflicting objectives, such as cost reduction, service level improvement, and environmental sustainability. Traditional multi-objective optimization methods, such as linear programming and evolutionary algorithms, struggle to adapt in real-time to the dynamic nature of supply chains. In this paper, we propose an approach that combines Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) to address these challenges for dynamic multi-objective optimization under uncertainty. Our method leverages MOEAs to search the parameter space of policy neural networks, generating a Pareto front of policies. This provides decision-makers with a diverse population of policies that can be dynamically switched based on the current system objectives, ensuring flexibility and adaptability in real-time decision-making. We also introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to incorporate risk-sensitive decision-making, enhancing resilience in uncertain environments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through case studies, showcasing its ability to respond to supply chain dynamics and outperforming state-of-the-art methods in an inventory management case study. The proposed strategy not only improves decision-making efficiency but also offers a more robust framework for managing uncertainty and optimizing performance in supply chains.
Towards bridging the gap: Systematic sim-to-real transfer for diverse legged robots
Bjelonic, Filip, Tischhauser, Fabian, Hutter, Marco
Legged robots must achieve both robust locomotion and energy efficiency to be practical in real-world environments. Yet controllers trained in simulation often fail to transfer reliably, and most existing approaches neglect actuator-specific energy losses or depend on complex, hand-tuned reward formulations. We propose a framework that integrates sim-to-real reinforcement learning with a physics-grounded energy model for permanent magnet synchronous motors. The framework requires a minimal parameter set to capture the simulation-to-reality gap and employs a compact four-term reward with a first-principle-based energetic loss formulation that balances electrical and mechanical dissipation. We evaluate and validate the approach through a bottom-up dynamic parameter identification study, spanning actuators, full-robot in-air trajectories and on-ground locomotion. The framework is tested on three primary platforms and deployed on ten additional robots, demonstrating reliable policy transfer without randomization of dynamic parameters. Our method improves energetic efficiency over state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 32 percent reduction in the full Cost of Transport of ANYmal (value 1.27). All code, models, and datasets will be released.
Large Language Models as Virtual Survey Respondents: Evaluating Sociodemographic Response Generation
Zhao, Jianpeng, Yuan, Chenyu, Luo, Weiming, Xie, Haoling, Zhang, Guangwei, Quan, Steven Jige, Yuan, Zixuan, Wang, Pengyang, Zhang, Denghui
Questionnaire-based surveys are foundational to social science research and public policymaking, yet traditional survey methods remain costly, time-consuming, and often limited in scale. This paper explores a new paradigm: simulating virtual survey respondents using Large Language Models (LLMs). We introduce two novel simulation settings, namely Partial Attribute Simulation (PAS) and Full Attribute Simulation (FAS), to systematically evaluate the ability of LLMs to generate accurate and demographically coherent responses. In PAS, the model predicts missing attributes based on partial respondent profiles, whereas FAS involves generating complete synthetic datasets under both zero-context and context-enhanced conditions. We curate a comprehensive benchmark suite, LLM-S^3 (Large Language Model-based Sociodemographic Survey Simulation), that spans 11 real-world public datasets across four sociological domains. Our evaluation of multiple mainstream LLMs (GPT-3.5/4 Turbo, LLaMA 3.0/3.1-8B) reveals consistent trends in prediction performance, highlights failure modes, and demonstrates how context and prompt design impact simulation fidelity. This work establishes a rigorous foundation for LLM-driven survey simulations, offering scalable and cost-effective tools for sociological research and policy evaluation. Our code and dataset are available at: https://github.com/dart-lab-research/LLM-S-Cube-Benchmark
WindFM: An Open-Source Foundation Model for Zero-Shot Wind Power Forecasting
Fan, Hang, Shi, Yu, Fu, Zongliang, Chen, Shuo, Wei, Wei, Xu, Wei, Li, Jian
High-quality wind power forecasting is crucial for the operation of modern power grids. However, prevailing data-driven paradigms either train a site-specific model which cannot generalize to other locations or rely on fine-tuning of general-purpose time series foundation models which are difficult to incorporate domain-specific data in the energy sector. This paper introduces WindFM, a lightweight and generative Foundation Model designed specifically for probabilistic wind power forecasting. WindFM employs a discretize-and-generate framework. A specialized time-series tokenizer first converts continuous multivariate observations into discrete, hierarchical tokens. Subsequently, a decoder-only Transformer learns a universal representation of wind generation dynamics by autoregressively pre-training on these token sequences. Using the comprehensive WIND Toolkit dataset comprising approximately 150 billion time steps from more than 126,000 sites, WindFM develops a foundational understanding of the complex interplay between atmospheric conditions and power output. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our compact 8.1M parameter model achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on both deterministic and probabilistic tasks, outperforming specialized models and larger foundation models without any fine-tuning. In particular, WindFM exhibits strong adaptiveness under out-of-distribution data from a different continent, demonstrating the robustness and transferability of its learned representations. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/WindFM.
Energy-Efficient Path Planning with Multi-Location Object Pickup for Mobile Robots on Uneven Terrain
Babakano, Faiza, Fahmin, Ahmed, Shen, Bojie, Cheema, Muhammad Aamir, Siddiqui, Isma Farah
Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) operate on battery power, making energy efficiency a critical consideration particularly in outdoor environments where terrain variations affect energy consumption. While prior research has primarily focused on computing energy-efficient paths from a source to a destination, these approaches often overlook practical scenarios where a robot needs to pick up an object en route--an action that can significantly impact energy consumption due to changes in payload. This paper introduces the Object-Pickup Minimum Energy Path Problem (OMEPP), which addresses energy-efficient route planning for Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) required to pick up an object from one of the many possible locations and take it to a destination. To address the OMEPP problem, we first introduce a baseline algorithm that employs the Z* algorithm, a variant of A* tailored for energy-efficient routing, to iteratively visit each pickup point. While this approach guarantees optimality, it suffers from high computational cost due to repeated search efforts at each pickup location. To mitigate this inefficiency, we propose a concurrent PCPD search that manages multiple Z* searches simultaneously across all pickup points. Central to our solution is the Payload-Constrained Path Database (PCPD), an extension of the Compressed Path Database (CPD), a state-of-the-art technique for fast shortest path computation, that incorporates payload constraints. We further demonstrate that PCPD significantly reduces branching factors during search, leading to improved overall performance. Although the concurrent PCPD search may produce slightly suboptimal solutions, extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that it achieves near-optimal performance while being one to two orders of magnitude faster than the baseline algorithm derived from existing methods.
Data-Driven Stochastic Modeling Using Autoregressive Sequence Models: Translating Event Tables to Queueing Dynamics
Mittal, Daksh, Zheng, Shunri, Dong, Jing, Namkoong, Hongseok
While queueing network models are powerful tools for analyzing service systems, they traditionally require substantial human effort and domain expertise to construct. To make this modeling approach more scalable and accessible, we propose a data-driven framework for queueing network modeling and simulation based on autoregressive sequence models trained on event-stream data. Instead of explicitly specifying arrival processes, service mechanisms, or routing logic, our approach learns the conditional distributions of event types and event times, recasting the modeling task as a problem of sequence distribution learning. We show that Transformer-style architectures can effectively parameterize these distributions, enabling automated construction of high-fidelity simulators. As a proof of concept, we validate our framework on event tables generated from diverse queueing networks, showcasing its utility in simulation, uncertainty quantification, and counterfactual evaluation. Leveraging advances in artificial intelligence and the growing availability of data, our framework takes a step toward more automated, data-driven modeling pipelines to support broader adoption of queueing network models across service domains.
Select, then Balance: A Plug-and-Play Framework for Exogenous-Aware Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Chen, Wei, Wu, Yuqian, Zhu, Yuanshao, Hao, Xixuan, Wang, Shiyu, Liang, Yuxuan
Spatio-temporal forecasting aims to predict the future state of dynamic systems and plays an important role in multiple fields. However, existing solutions only focus on modeling using a limited number of observed target variables. In real-world scenarios, exogenous variables can be integrated into the model as additional input features and associated with the target signal to promote forecast accuracy. Although promising, this still encounters two challenges: the inconsistent effects of different exogenous variables to the target system, and the imbalance effects between historical variables and future variables. To address these challenges, this paper introduces \model, a novel framework for modeling \underline{exo}genous variables in \underline{s}patio-\underline{t}emporal forecasting, which follows a ``select, then balance'' paradigm. Specifically, we first construct a latent space gated expert module, where fused exogenous information is projected into a latent space to dynamically select and recompose salient signals via specialized sub-experts. Furthermore, we design a siamese network architecture in which recomposed representations of past and future exogenous variables are fed into dual-branch spatio-temporal backbones to capture dynamic patterns. The outputs are integrated through a context-aware weighting mechanism to achieve dynamic balance during the modeling process. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness, generality, robustness, and efficiency of our proposed framework.