Abstract--Critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly complex as our society becomes increasingly dependent on them. This complexity opens the door to new possibilities for attacks and a need for new defense strategies. Our work focuses on instability attacks on the power grid, wherein an attacker causes cascading outages by introducing unstable dynamics into the system. When stress is place on the power grid, a standard mitigation approach is load-shedding: the system operator chooses a set of loads to shut off until the situation is resolved. While this technique is standard, there is no systematic approach to choosing which loads will stop an instability attack. We show a proof of concept on the IEEE 14 Bus System using the Achilles Heel T echnologies Power Grid Analyzer, and show through an implementation of modified Prony analysis (MPA) that MPA is a viable method for detecting instability attacks and triggering defense mechanisms. Throughout the past two hundred years, the power grid has become a core part of the infrastructure of the world. Every modern facility relies on electricity to sustain the way of life that has become prevalent in first world countries, powering everything from life sustaining equipment to financial transaction infrastructure.

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty quantification. However, most models do not capture the full extent of uncertainty, which arises not only from the data itself but also from model and distributional choices. In this study, we examine uncertainty quantification in state-of-the-art statistical and deep learning probabilistic forecasting models for electricity price forecasting in the German market. In particular, we consider deep distributional neural networks (DDNNs) and augment them with an ensemble approach, Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, and conformal prediction to account for model uncertainty. Additionally, we consider the LASSO-estimated autoregressive (LEAR) approach combined with quantile regression averaging (QRA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and conformal prediction. Across a range of performance metrics, we find that the LEAR-based models perform well in terms of probabilistic forecasting, irrespective of the uncertainty quantification method. Furthermore, we find that DDNNs benefit from incorporating both data and model uncertainty, improving both point and probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty itself appears to be best captured by the models using conformal prediction. Overall, our extensive study shows that all models under consideration perform competitively. However, their relative performance depends on the choice of metrics for point and probabilistic forecasting.

Negotiation is a powerful tool for modelling complex interactions between self - interested agents, which can be people, companies or increasingly, AI - enabled autonomous agents, that aim to reach the best agreement for their human owners. While negotiation is often thought as a competitive process, in which one part y wins and the other one l oses, in practice most real negotiations involve more complex, win - win scenarios ( Raif fa [20]), in which agreements can be found that maximize the utilities of both agents . S uch outcomes (agreements) are called Pareto - efficient, i.e. it is not possible to find another outcome that would increase one agent's utility, without making another agent worse off. Yet, finding agreements that are Pareto - efficient is a challenging computational problem, especially in complex negotiation domains, where issues negotiated upon are interdependent (i.e. the utility of the value chosen for one negotiation issue depends strongly on the choice for other one s). Consider, for example, the negotiations between parties in a logistic supply chain: producers want to have certain combinations of resources/quantities, delivered at certain times to be able to produce their goods, whil e suppliers may face similar constraints in their cost function for supplying different combinations of items . Or the peer - to - peer negotiations between prosumers in a decentralised power grid, that require certain amounts of energy at different times and locations, which involve non - linear constraints, especially if the capacity of the distribution network is limited .

Corresponding Author.This work is supported by Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project (No.

Because LMs now surpass the performance of most humans except domain experts, evaluating them becomes increasingly challenging.

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) represent a promising approach to developing artificial neural networks that are both energy-efficient and biologically plausible.