Energy
Towards Active Excitation-Based Dynamic Inertia Identification in Satellites
El-Hariry, Matteo, Franzese, Vittorio, Olivares-Mendez, Miguel
Abstract-- This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of how excitation design influences the identification of the inertia properties of rigid nano-and micro-satellites. We simulate nonlinear attitude dynamics with reaction-wheel coupling, actuator limits, and external disturbances, and excite the system using eight torque profiles of varying spectral richness. Two estimators are compared, a batch Least Squares method and an Extended Kalman Filter, across three satellite configurations and time-varying inertia scenarios. Results show that excitation frequency content and estimator assumptions jointly determine estimation accuracy and robustness, offering practical guidance for in-orbit adaptive inertia identification by outlining the conditions under which each method performs best. The ability to accurately characterize the inertia properties of a spacecraft while in mission flight is key for attitude and trajectory control.
Resolution-Aware Retrieval Augmented Zero-Shot Forecasting
Deznabi, Iman, Kumar, Peeyush, Fiterau, Madalina
Zero-shot forecasting aims to predict outcomes for previously unseen conditions without direct historical data, posing a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. We introduce a Resolution-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhances predictive accuracy by leveraging spatial correlations and temporal frequency characteristics. By decomposing signals into different frequency components, our model employs resolution-aware retrieval, where lower-frequency components rely on broader spatial context, while higher-frequency components focus on local influences. This allows the model to dynamically retrieve relevant data and adapt to new locations with minimal historical context. Applied to microclimate forecasting, our model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods, numerical weather prediction models, and modern foundation time series models, achieving 71% lower MSE than HRRR and 34% lower MSE than Chronos on the ERA5 dataset. Our results highlight the effectiveness of retrieval-augmented and resolution-aware strategies, offering a scalable and data-efficient solution for zero-shot forecasting in microclimate modeling and beyond.
Active Target Discovery under Uninformative Prior: The Power of Permanent and Transient Memory
Sarkar, Anindya, Ji, Binglin, Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy
In many scientific and engineering fields, where acquiring high-quality data is expensive--such as medical imaging, environmental monitoring, and remote sensing--strategic sampling of unobserved regions based on prior observations is crucial for maximizing discovery rates within a constrained budget. The rise of powerful generative models, such as diffusion models, has enabled active target discovery in partially observable environments by leveraging learned priors--probabilistic representations that capture underlying structure from data. With guidance from sequentially gathered task-specific observations, these models can progressively refine exploration and efficiently direct queries toward promising regions. However, in domains where learning a strong prior is infeasible due to extremely limited data or high sampling cost (such as rare species discovery, diagnostics for emerging diseases, etc.), these methods struggle to generalize. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enables effective active target discovery even in settings with uninformative priors, ensuring robust exploration and adaptability in complex real-world scenarios. Our framework is theoretically principled and draws inspiration from neuroscience to guide its design. Unlike black-box policies, our approach is inherently interpretable, providing clear insights into decision-making. Furthermore, it guarantees a strong, monotonic improvement in prior estimates with each new observation, leading to increasingly accurate sampling and reinforcing both reliability and adaptability in dynamic settings. Through comprehensive experiments and ablation studies across various domains, including species distribution modeling and remote sensing, we demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms baseline approaches.
Urban-R1: Reinforced MLLMs Mitigate Geospatial Biases for Urban General Intelligence
Wang, Qiongyan, Zou, Xingchen, Jiang, Yutian, Wen, Haomin, Wei, Jiaheng, Wen, Qingsong, Liang, Yuxuan
Rapid urbanization intensifies the demand for Urban General Intelligence (UGI), referring to AI systems that can understand and reason about complex urban environments. Recent studies have built urban foundation models using supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of LLMs and MLLMs, yet these models exhibit persistent geospatial bias, producing regionally skewed predictions and limited generalization. To this end, we propose Urban-R1, a reinforcement learning-based post-training framework that aligns MLLMs with the objectives of UGI. Urban-R1 adopts Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to optimize reasoning across geographic groups and employs urban region profiling as a proxy task to provide measurable rewards from multimodal urban data. Extensive experiments across diverse regions and tasks show that Urban-R1 effectively mitigates geo-bias and improves cross-region generalization, outperforming both SFT-trained and closed-source models. Our results highlight reinforcement learning alignment as a promising pathway toward equitable and trustworthy urban intelligence.
Conformal Prediction in The Loop: A Feedback-Based Uncertainty Model for Trajectory Optimization
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g., Trajectory Optimization (TO) in uncertain environments. However, existing methods predominantly employ a sequential scheme, where decisions rely unidirectionally on the prediction regions, and consequently the information from decision-making fails to be fed back to instruct CP. In this paper, we propose a novel Feedback-Based CP (Fb-CP) framework for shrinking-horizon TO with a joint risk constraint over the entire mission time. Specifically, a CP-based posterior risk calculation method is developed by fully leveraging the realized trajectories to adjust the posterior allowable risk, which is then allocated to future times to update prediction regions. In this way, the information in the realized trajectories is continuously fed back to the CP, enabling attractive feedback-based adjustments of the prediction regions and a provable online improvement in trajectory performance. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that such adjustments consistently maintain the coverage guarantees of the prediction regions, thereby ensuring provable safety. Additionally, we develop a decision-focused iterative risk allocation algorithm with theoretical convergence analysis for allocating the posterior allowable risk which closely aligns with Fb-CP. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method to handle distribution shift. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated through benchmark experiments.
SPOT: Sensing-augmented Trajectory Planning via Obstacle Threat Modeling
Zhang, Chi, Huang, Xian, Dong, Wei
UAVs equipped with a single depth camera encounter significant challenges in dynamic obstacle avoidance due to limited field of view and inevitable blind spots. While active vision strategies that steer onboard cameras have been proposed to expand sensing coverage, most existing methods separate motion planning from sensing considerations, resulting in less effective and delayed obstacle response. To address this limitation, we introduce SPOT (Sensing-augmented Planning via Obstacle Threat modeling), a unified planning framework for observation-aware trajectory planning that explicitly incorporates sensing objectives into motion optimization. At the core of our method is a Gaussian Process-based obstacle belief map, which establishes a unified probabilistic representation of both recognized (previously observed) and potential obstacles. This belief is further processed through a collision-aware inference mechanism that transforms spatial uncertainty and trajectory proximity into a time-varying observation urgency map. By integrating urgency values within the current field of view, we define differentiable objectives that enable real-time, observation-aware trajectory planning with computation times under 10 ms. Simulation and real-world experiments in dynamic, cluttered, and occluded environments show that our method detects potential dynamic obstacles 2.8 seconds earlier than baseline approaches, increasing dynamic obstacle visibility by over 500\%, and enabling safe navigation through cluttered, occluded environments.
Machine Learning for Climate Policy: Understanding Policy Progression in the European Green Deal
West, Patricia, Wan, Michelle WL, Hepburn, Alexander, Simpson, Edwin, Santos-Rodriguez, Raul, Clark, Jeffrey N
Climate change demands effective legislative action to mitigate its impacts. This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) to understand the progression of climate policy from announcement to adoption, focusing on policies within the European Green Deal. We present a dataset of 165 policies, incorporating text and metadata. We aim to predict a policy's progression status, and compare text representation methods, including TF-IDF, BERT, and ClimateBERT. Metadata features are included to evaluate the impact on predictive performance. On text features alone, ClimateBERT outperforms other approaches (RMSE = 0.17, R^2 = 0.29), while BERT achieves superior performance with the addition of metadata features (RMSE = 0.16, R^2 = 0.38). Using methods from explainable AI highlights the influence of factors such as policy wording and metadata including political party and country representation. These findings underscore the potential of ML tools in supporting climate policy analysis and decision-making.
Publication Trend Analysis and Synthesis via Large Language Model: A Case Study of Engineering in PNAS
Smetana, Mason, Khazanovich, Lev
Scientific literature is increasingly siloed by complex language, static disciplinary structures, and potentially sparse keyword systems, making it cumbersome to capture the dynamic nature of modern science. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an adaptable large language model (LLM)-driven framework to quantify thematic trends and map the evolving landscape of scientific knowledge. The approach is demonstrated over a 20-year collection of more than 1,500 engineering articles published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), marked for their breadth and depth of research focus. A two-stage classification pipeline first establishes a primary thematic category for each article based on its abstract. The subsequent phase performs a full-text analysis to assign secondary classifications, revealing latent, cross-topic connections across the corpus. Traditional natural language processing (NLP) methods, such as Bag-of-Words (BoW) and Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF), confirm the resulting topical structure and also suggest that standalone word-frequency analyses may be insufficient for mapping fields with high diversity. Finally, a disjoint graph representation between the primary and secondary classifications reveals implicit connections between themes that may be less apparent when analyzing abstracts or keywords alone. The findings show that the approach independently recovers much of the journal's editorially embedded structure without prior knowledge of its existing dual-classification schema (e.g., biological studies also classified as engineering). This framework offers a powerful tool for detecting potential thematic trends and providing a high-level overview of scientific progress.
Residual Correction Models for AC Optimal Power Flow Using DC Optimal Power Flow Solutions
Za'ter, Muhy Eddin, Hodge, Bri-Mathias, Baker, Kyri
Solving the nonlinear AC optimal power flow (AC OPF) problem remains a major computational bottleneck for real-time grid operations. In this paper, we propose a residual learning paradigm that uses fast DC optimal power flow (DC OPF) solutions as a baseline, and learns only the nonlinear corrections required to provide the full AC-OPF solution. The method utilizes a topology-aware Graph Neural Network with local attention and two-level DC feature integration, trained using a physics-informed loss that enforces AC power-flow feasibility and operational limits. Evaluations on OPFData for 57-, 118-, and 2000-bus systems show around 25% lower MSE, up to 3X reduction in feasibility error, and up to 13X runtime speedup compared to conventional AC OPF solvers. The model maintains accuracy under N-1 contingencies and scales efficiently to large networks. These results demonstrate that residual learning is a practical and scalable bridge between linear approximations and AC-feasible OPF, enabling near real-time operational decision making.
Learning a Generalized Model for Substation Level Voltage Estimation in Distribution Networks
Za'ter, Muhy Eddin, Hodge, Bri-Mathias
Abstract--Accurate voltage estimation in distribution networks is critical for real-time monitoring and increasing the reliability of the grid. As DER penetration and distribution level voltage variability increase, robust distribution system state estimation (DSSE) has become more essential to maintain safe and efficient operations. This paper presents a hierarchical graph neural network for substation-level voltage estimation that exploits both electrical topology and physical features, while remaining robust to the low observability levels common to real-world distribution networks. Leveraging the public SMART -DS datasets, the model is trained and evaluated on thousands of buses across multiple substations and DER penetration scenarios. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves up to 2 times lower RMSE than alternative data-driven models, and maintains high accuracy with as little as 1% measurement coverage. The results highlight the potential of GNNs to enable scalable, reproducible, and data-driven voltage monitoring for distribution systems. Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is the process of determining the state variables of a distribution network given a limited set of measurements [1], [2]. Historically, distribution networks were operated as a passive part of the grid, delivering electricity from transmission substations to customers in a unidirectional manner [3].