To support N-1 pre-fault transient stability assessment, this paper introduces a new data collection method in a data-driven algorithm incorporating the knowledge of power system dynamics. The domain knowledge on how the disturbance effect will propagate from the fault location to the rest of the network is leveraged to recognise the dominant conditions that determine the stability of a system. Accordingly, we introduce a new concept called Fault-Affected Area, which provides crucial information regarding the unstable region of operation. This information is embedded in an augmented dataset to train an ensemble model using an instance transfer learning framework. The test results on the IEEE 39-bus system verify that this model can accurately predict the stability of previously unseen operational scenarios while reducing the risk of false prediction of unstable instances compared to standard approaches.

A reversal of the magnetic poles 42,000 years ago triggered catastrophic climate change and may have wiped out Neanderthals, a new study shows. Aussie researchers have analysed the radiocarbon record from ancient trees in New Zealand that were alive when the magnetic poles flipped. The trees revealed spikes in atmospheric radiocarbon levels, caused by the collapse of Earth's magnetic field and changing solar winds. But preceding the flip was a weakening of the magnetic fields, causing electrical storms, crimson skies, widespread auroras and lethal cosmic radiation that frazzled our early ancestors and the Earth's wildlife. The researchers dubbed this danger period the'Adams Transitional Geomagnetic Event', or'Adams Event' for short – a tribute to science fiction writer Douglas Adams.

Web-scale repositories of products, patents and scientific papers offer an opportunity for creating automated systems that scour millions of ideas and assist users in discovering inspirations and solutions. Yet the common representation of ideas is in the form of raw textual descriptions, lacking important structure that is required for supporting creative innovation. Prior work has pointed to the importance of functional structure -- capturing the mechanisms and purposes of inventions -- for allowing users to discover structural connections across ideas and creatively adapt existing technologies. However, the use of functional representations was either coarse and limited in expressivity, or dependent on curated knowledge bases with poor coverage and significant manual effort from users. To help bridge this gap and unlock the potential of large-scale idea mining, we propose a novel computational representation that automatically breaks up products into fine-grained functional facets. We train a model to extract these facets from a challenging real-world corpus of invention descriptions, and represent each product as a set of facet embeddings. We design similarity metrics that support granular matching between functional facets across ideas, and use them to build a novel functional search capability that enables expressive queries for mechanisms and purposes. We construct a graph capturing hierarchical relations between purposes and mechanisms across an entire corpus of products, and use the graph to help problem-solvers explore the design space around a focal problem and view related problem perspectives. In empirical user studies, our approach leads to a significant boost in search accuracy and in the quality of creative inspirations, outperforming strong baselines and state-of-art representations of product texts by 50-60%.

Robotic fabric manipulation has applications in home robotics, textiles, senior care and surgery. Existing fabric manipulation techniques, however, are designed for specific tasks, making it difficult to generalize across different but related tasks. We build upon the Visual Foresight framework to learn fabric dynamics that can be efficiently reused to accomplish different sequential fabric manipulation tasks with a single goal-conditioned policy. We extend our earlier work on VisuoSpatial Foresight (VSF), which learns visual dynamics on domain randomized RGB images and depth maps simultaneously and completely in simulation. In this earlier work, we evaluated VSF on multi-step fabric smoothing and folding tasks against 5 baseline methods in simulation and on the da Vinci Research Kit (dVRK) surgical robot without any demonstrations at train or test time. A key finding was that depth sensing significantly improves performance: RGBD data yields an 80% improvement in fabric folding success rate in simulation over pure RGB data. In this work, we vary 4 components of VSF, including data generation, the choice of visual dynamics model, cost function, and optimization procedure. Results suggest that training visual dynamics models using longer, corner-based actions can improve the efficiency of fabric folding by 76% and enable a physical sequential fabric folding task that VSF could not previously perform with 90% reliability. Code, data, videos, and supplementary material are available at https://sites.google.com/view/fabric-vsf/.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report states that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and notes that each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The projections of the IPCC Report regarding future global temperature change range from 1.1 to 4 C, but that temperatures increases of more than 6 C cannot be ruled out [1]. This wide range of values reflects our limitations in performing accurate projections of future climate change produced by different potential pathways of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sources of the uncertainty that prevent us from obtaining better precision are diverse. One of them is related to the computer models used to project future climate change.

Deciding what's next? is a fundamental problem in robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Under belief space planning (BSP), in a partially observable setting, it involves calculating the expected accumulated belief-dependent reward, where the expectation is with respect to all future measurements. Since solving this general un-approximated problem quickly becomes intractable, state of the art approaches turn to approximations while still calculating planning sessions from scratch. In this work we propose a novel paradigm, Incremental BSP (iX-BSP), based on the key insight that calculations across planning sessions are similar in nature and can be appropriately re-used. We calculate the expectation incrementally by utilizing Multiple Importance Sampling techniques for selective re-sampling and re-use of measurement from previous planning sessions. The formulation of our approach considers general distributions and accounts for data association aspects. We demonstrate how iX-BSP could benefit existing approximations of the general problem, introducing iML-BSP, which re-uses calculations across planning sessions under the common Maximum Likelihood assumption. We evaluate both methods and demonstrate a substantial reduction in computation time while statistically preserving accuracy. The evaluation includes both simulation and real-world experiments considering autonomous vision-based navigation and SLAM. As a further contribution, we introduce to iX-BSP the non-integral wildfire approximation, allowing one to trade accuracy for computational performance by averting from updating re-used beliefs when they are "close enough". We evaluate iX-BSP under wildfire demonstrating a substantial reduction in computation time while controlling the accuracy sacrifice. We also provide analytical and empirical bounds of the effect wildfire holds over the objective value.

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and obtains a direct approximation of the posterior density. Compared to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based sampling approaches, the VB approach achieves enhanced computational efficiency without sacrificing estimation accuracy. In the simulation study conducted here, the proposed VB approach detects various types of proper active structures for dynamic network models. Compared to the alternative approach, the proposed method achieves similar or better accuracy, and its computational time is halved. In a real data analysis scenario of day-ahead natural gas flow prediction in the German gas transmission network with 51 nodes between October 2013 and September 2015, the VB approach delivers promising forecasting accuracy along with clearly detected structures in terms of dynamic dependence.

Recent studies revealed the mathematical connection of deep neural network (DNN) and dynamic system. However, the fundamental principle of DNN has not been fully characterized with dynamic system in terms of optimization and generalization. To this end, we build the connection of DNN and continuity equation where the measure is conserved to model the forward propagation process of DNN which has not been addressed before. DNN learns the transformation of the input distribution to the output one. However, in the measure space, there are infinite curves connecting two distributions. Which one can lead to good optimization and generaliztion for DNN? By diving the optimal transport theory, we find DNN with weight decay attempts to learn the geodesic curve in the Wasserstein space, which is induced by the optimal transport map. Compared with plain network, ResNet is a better approximation to the geodesic curve, which explains why ResNet can be optimized and generalize better. Numerical experiments show that the data tracks of both plain network and ResNet tend to be line-shape in term of line-shape score (LSS), and the map learned by ResNet is closer to the optimal transport map in term of optimal transport score (OTS). In a word, we conclude a mathematical principle of deep learning is to learn the geodesic curve in the Wasserstein space; and deep learning is a great engineering realization of continuous transformation in high-dimensional space.

High dimensional data can contain multiple scales of variance. Analysis tools that preferentially operate at one scale can be ineffective at capturing all the information present in this cross-scale complexity. We propose a multiscale joint characterization approach designed to exploit synergies between global and local approaches to dimensionality reduction. We illustrate this approach using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to characterize global variance structure and t-stochastic neighbor embedding (t-sne) to characterize local variance structure. Using both synthetic images and real-world imaging spectroscopy data, we show that joint characterization is capable of detecting and isolating signals which are not evident from either PCA or t-sne alone. Broadly, t-sne is effective at rendering a randomly oriented low-dimensional map of local clusters, and PCA renders this map interpretable by providing global, physically meaningful structure. This approach is illustrated using imaging spectroscopy data, and may prove particularly useful for other geospatial data given robust local variance structure due to spatial autocorrelation and physical interpretability of global variance structure due to spectral properties of Earth surface materials. However, the fundamental premise could easily be extended to other high dimensional datasets, including image time series and non-image data.

Transfer learning, also referred as knowledge transfer, aims at reusing knowledge from a source dataset to a similar target one. While many empirical studies illustrate the benefits of transfer learning, few theoretical results are established especially for regression problems. In this paper a theoretical framework for the problem of parameter transfer for the linear model is proposed. It is shown that the quality of transfer for a new input vector $x$ depends on its representation in an eigenbasis involving the parameters of the problem. Furthermore a statistical test is constructed to predict whether a fine-tuned model has a lower prediction quadratic risk than the base target model for an unobserved sample. Efficiency of the test is illustrated on synthetic data as well as real electricity consumption data.