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TESSERA: Temporal Embeddings of Surface Spectra for Earth Representation and Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Satellite Earth-observation (EO) time series in the optical and microwave ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum are often irregular due to orbital patterns and cloud obstruction. Compositing addresses these issues but loses information with respect to vegetation phenology, which is critical for many downstream tasks. Instead, we present TESSERA, a pixel-wise foundation model for multi-modal (Sentinel-1/2) EO time series that learns robust, label-efficient em-beddings. During model training, TESSERA uses Barlow Twins and sparse random temporal sampling to enforce invariance to the selection of valid observations. W e employ two key regularizers: global shuffling to decorrelate spatial neighborhoods and mix-based regulation to improve invariance under extreme sparsity. W e find that for diverse classification, segmentation, and regression tasks, TESSERA embeddings deliver state-of-the-art accuracy with high label efficiency, often requiring only a small task head and minimal computation. T o democratize access, adhere to F AIR principles, and simplify use, we release global, annual, 10m, pixel-wise int8 embeddings together with open weights/code and lightweight adaptation heads, thus providing practical tooling for large-scale retrieval and inference at planetary scale. The model training/inference code, downstream task code, and pre-generated embeddings can be accessed at https://github.com/ucam-eo.


Constraint-Guided Prediction Refinement via Deterministic Diffusion Trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many real-world machine learning tasks require outputs that satisfy hard constraints, such as physical conservation laws, structured dependencies in graphs, or column-level relationships in tabular data. Existing approaches rely either on domain-specific architectures and losses or on strong assumptions on the constraint space, restricting their applicability to linear or convex constraints. We propose a general-purpose framework for constraint-aware refinement that leverages denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIMs). Starting from a coarse prediction, our method iteratively refines it through a deterministic diffusion trajectory guided by a learned prior and augmented by constraint gradient corrections. The approach accommodates a wide class of non-convex and nonlinear equality constraints and can be applied post hoc to any base model. We demonstrate the method in two representative domains: constrained adversarial attack generation on tabular data with column-level dependencies and in AC power flow prediction under Kirchhoff's laws. Across both settings, our diffusion-guided refinement improves both constraint satisfaction and performance while remaining lightweight and model-agnostic.


Atlas Gaussian processes on restricted domains and point clouds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In real-world applications, data often reside in restricted domains with unknown boundaries, or as high-dimensional point clouds lying on a lower-dimensional, nontrivial, unknown manifold. Traditional Gaussian Processes (GPs) struggle to capture the underlying geometry in such settings. Some existing methods assume a flat space embedded in a point cloud, which can be represented by a single latent chart (latent space), while others exhibit weak performance when the point cloud is sparse or irregularly sampled. The goal of this work is to address these challenges. The main contributions are twofold: (1) We establish the Atlas Brownian Motion (BM) framework for estimating the heat kernel on point clouds with unknown geometries and nontrivial topological structures; (2) Instead of directly using the heat kernel estimates, we construct a Riemannian corrected kernel by combining the global heat kernel with local RBF kernel and leading to the formulation of Riemannian-corrected Atlas Gaussian Processes (RC-AGPs). The resulting RC-AGPs are applied to regression tasks across synthetic and real-world datasets. These examples demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches in both heat kernel estimation and regression accuracy. It improves statistical inference by effectively bridging the gap between complex, high-dimensional observations and manifold-based inferences.


Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines introduced by the underlying latent and turbulent wind field. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes. We present an efficient variational approximation based on nested variational compression and show how the model can be used to extract shared information between dependent time series, recovering an interpretable functional decomposition of the learning problem. We show results for an artificial data set and real-world data of two wind turbines.





Autoconj: Recognizing and Exploiting Conjugacy Without a Domain-Specific Language

Neural Information Processing Systems

Deriving conditional and marginal distributions using conjugacy relationships can be time consuming and error prone. In this paper, we propose a strategy for automating such derivations. Unlike previous systems which focus on relationships between pairs of random variables, our system (which we call Autoconj) operates directly on Python functions that compute log-joint distribution functions. Autoconj provides support for conjugacy-exploiting algorithms in any Python-embedded PPL. This paves the way for accelerating development of novel inference algorithms and structure-exploiting modeling strategies.