Accurate estimation of sub-surface properties like moisture content and depth of layers is crucial for applications spanning sub-surface condition monitoring, precision agriculture, and effective wildfire risk assessment. Soil in nature is often covered by overlaying surface material, making its characterization using conventional methods challenging. In addition, the estimation of the properties of the overlaying layer is crucial for applications like wildfire assessment. This study thus proposes a Bayesian model-updating-based approach for ground penetrating radar (GPR) waveform inversion to predict sub-surface properties like the moisture contents and depths of the soil layer and overlaying material accumulated above the soil. The dielectric permittivity of material layers were predicted with the proposed method, along with other parameters, including depth and electrical conductivity of layers. The proposed Bayesian model updating approach yields probabilistic estimates of these parameters that can provide information about the confidence and uncertainty related to the estimates. The methodology was evaluated for a diverse range of experimental data collected through laboratory and field investigations. Laboratory investigations included variations in soil moisture values and depth of the top layer (or overlaying material), and the field investigation included measurement of field soil moisture for sixteen days. The results demonstrated predictions consistent with time-domain reflectometry (TDR) measurements and conventional gravimetric tests. The top layer depth could also be predicted with reasonable accuracy. The proposed method provides a promising approach for uncertainty-aware sub-surface parameter estimation that can enable decision-making for risk assessment across a wide range of applications.

Virtually all cells use energy and ion-specific membrane pumps to maintain large transmembrane gradients of Na$^+$, K$^+$, Cl$^-$, Mg$^{++}$, and Ca$^{++}$. Although they consume up to 1/3 of a cell's energy budget, the corresponding evolutionary benefit of transmembrane ion gradients remain unclear. Here, we propose that ion gradients enable a dynamic and versatile biological system that acquires, analyzes, and responds to environmental information. We hypothesize environmental signals are transmitted into the cell by ion fluxes along pre-existing gradients through gated ion-specific membrane channels. The consequent changes of cytoplasmic ion concentration can generate a local response and orchestrate global or regional responses through wire-like ion fluxes along pre-existing and self-assembling cytoskeleton to engage the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, and nucleus. Here, we frame our hypothesis through a quasi-physical (Cell-Reservoir) model that treats intra-cellular ion-based information dynamics as a sub-cellular process permitting spatiotemporally resolved cellular response that is also capable of learning complex nonlinear dynamical cellular behavior. We demonstrate the proposed ion dynamics permits rapid dissemination of response to information extrinsic perturbations that is consistent with experimental observations.

A standard tool for modelling real-world optimisation problems is mixed-integer programming (MIP). However, for many of these problems there is either incomplete information describing variable relations, or the relations between variables are highly complex. To overcome both these hurdles, machine learning (ML) models are often used and embedded in the MIP as surrogate models to represent these relations. Due to the large amount of available ML frameworks, formulating ML models into MIPs is highly non-trivial. In this paper we propose a tool for the automatic MIP formulation of trained ML models, allowing easy integration of ML constraints into MIPs. In addition, we introduce a library of MIP instances with embedded ML constraints. The project is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/PySCIPOpt-ML.

Undoubtedly, Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) provide an interesting source of geo-located data that we have previously used to obtain patterns of the dynamics of crowds throughout urban areas. According to our previous results, activity in LBSNs reflects the real activity in the city. Therefore, unexpected behaviors in the social media activity are a trustful evidence of unexpected changes of the activity in the city. In this paper we introduce a hybrid solution to early detect these changes based on applying a combination of two approaches, the use of entropy analysis and clustering techniques, on the data gathered from LBSNs. In particular, we have performed our experiments over a data set collected from Instagram for seven months in New York City, obtaining promising results. The uninterrupted growth in both number of users and activity of Online Social Networks (OSNs) can be attributed to the parallel increase of the smartphone penetration rate. These mobile devices allow a quick interaction with OSNs and make it easy for subscribers to share their ideas, thoughts, photos, messages, etc. All these posts automatically include the subscriber's location when using GPS-enabled devices, especially when interacting with Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs), i.e. location-centred OSNs. These networks focus their activity on sharing experiences at the right place and time they are happening (Foursquare, Twitter, Instagram, etc.). Consequently, LBSNs provide a very attractive source of geo-located data that, in the smart city field, may be an interesting alternative to the traditional video sources to monitor human activity in urban areas. On the one hand, the infrastructure costs are really low. Instead of having complex video-surveillance networks, which need to be deployed and maintained, citizens are the ones in charge of buying, maintaining and connecting their mobile devices. Besides, due to the ubiquity of the LBSNs, the area under analysis may be easily changed without any extra investment. On the other hand, traditional video-surveillance systems need to be monitored by human staff, who may be supported by complex algorithms for video frames analysis.

This study presents a deep learning-based approach to seismic velocity inversion problem, focusing on both noisy and noiseless training datasets of varying sizes. Our Seismic Velocity Inversion Network (SVInvNet) introduces a novel architecture that contains a multi-connection encoder-decoder structure enhanced with dense blocks. This design is specifically tuned to effectively process complex information, crucial for addressing the challenges of non-linear seismic velocity inversion. For training and testing, we created diverse seismic velocity models, including multi-layered, faulty, and salt dome categories. We also investigated how different kinds of ambient noise, both coherent and stochastic, and the size of the training dataset affect learning outcomes. SVInvNet is trained on datasets ranging from 750 to 6,000 samples and is tested using a large benchmark dataset of 12,000 samples. Despite its fewer parameters compared to the baseline, SVInvNet achieves superior performance with this dataset. The outcomes of the SVInvNet are additionally compared to those of the Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) method. The comparative analysis clearly reveals the effectiveness of the proposed model.

The optimization of well locations and controls is an important step in the design of subsurface flow operations such as oil production or geological CO2 storage. These optimization problems can be computationally expensive, however, as many potential candidate solutions must be evaluated. In this study, we propose a graph network surrogate model (GNSM) for optimizing well placement and controls. The GNSM transforms the flow model into a computational graph that involves an encoding-processing-decoding architecture. Separate networks are constructed to provide global predictions for the pressure and saturation state variables. Model performance is enhanced through the inclusion of the single-phase steady-state pressure solution as a feature. A multistage multistep strategy is used for training. The trained GNSM is applied to predict flow responses in a 2D unstructured model of a channelized reservoir. Results are presented for a large set of test cases, in which five injection wells and five production wells are placed randomly throughout the model, with a random control variable (bottom-hole pressure) assigned to each well. Median relative error in pressure and saturation for 300 such test cases is 1-2%. The ability of the trained GNSM to provide accurate predictions for a new (geologically similar) permeability realization is demonstrated. Finally, the trained GNSM is used to optimize well locations and controls with a differential evolution algorithm. GNSM-based optimization results are comparable to those from simulation-based optimization, with a runtime speedup of a factor of 36. Much larger speedups are expected if the method is used for robust optimization, in which each candidate solution is evaluated on multiple geological models.

Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a theory-guided machine learning approach that employs a generalized Bayesian algorithm to make ensemble forecasts. We employ Lipschitz predictors and determine fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds in the batch learning setting. Performing causal forecast is a highlight of our methodology as its potential application to data with spatial and temporal short and long-range dependence. We then test the performance of our learning methodology by using linear predictors and data sets simulated from a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

We introduce Lagrangian Flow Networks (LFlows) for modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time. By construction, the proposed LFlows satisfy the continuity equation, a PDE describing mass conservation in its differentiable form. Our model is based on the insight that solutions to the continuity equation can be expressed as time-dependent density transformations via differentiable and invertible maps. This follows from classical theory of the existence and uniqueness of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields. Hence, we model fluid densities by transforming a base density with parameterized diffeomorphisms conditioned on time. The key benefit compared to methods relying on numerical ODE solvers or PINNs is that the analytic expression of the velocity is always consistent with changes in density. Furthermore, we require neither expensive numerical solvers, nor additional penalties to enforce the PDE. LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D, while being computationally efficient. As a real-world application, we model bird migration based on sparse weather radar measurements.

When solving challenging problems, language models (LMs) are able to identify relevant information from long and complicated contexts. To study how LMs solve retrieval tasks in diverse situations, we introduce ORION, a collection of structured retrieval tasks spanning six domains, from text understanding to coding. Each task in ORION can be represented abstractly by a request (e.g. a question) that retrieves an attribute (e.g. the character name) from a context (e.g. a story). We apply causal analysis on 18 open-source language models with sizes ranging from 125 million to 70 billion parameters. We find that LMs internally decompose retrieval tasks in a modular way: middle layers at the last token position process the request, while late layers retrieve the correct entity from the context. After causally enforcing this decomposition, models are still able to solve the original task, preserving 70% of the original correct token probability in 98 of the 106 studied model-task pairs. We connect our macroscopic decomposition with a microscopic description by performing a fine-grained case study of a question-answering task on Pythia-2.8b. Building on our high-level understanding, we demonstrate a proof of concept application for scalable internal oversight of LMs to mitigate prompt-injection while requiring human supervision on only a single input. Our solution improves accuracy drastically (from 15.5% to 97.5% on Pythia-12b). This work presents evidence of a universal emergent modular processing of tasks across varied domains and models and is a pioneering effort in applying interpretability for scalable internal oversight of LMs.

In this paper, we introduce an efficient sparse Gaussian process (E-SGP) for the surrogate modelling of fluid mechanics. This novel Bayesian machine learning algorithm allows efficient model training using databases of different structures. It is a further development of the approximated sparse GP algorithm, combining the concept of efficient GP (E-GP) and variational energy free sparse Gaussian process (VEF-SGP). The developed E-SGP approach exploits the arbitrariness of inducing points and the monotonically increasing nature of the objective function with respect to the number of inducing points in VEF-SGP. By specifying the inducing points on the orthogonal grid/input subspace and using the Kronecker product, E-SGP significantly improves computational efficiency without imposing any constraints on the covariance matrix or increasing the number of parameters that need to be optimised during training. The E-SGP algorithm developed in this paper outperforms E-GP not only in scalability but also in model quality in terms of mean standardized logarithmic loss (MSLL). The computational complexity of E-GP suffers from the cubic growth regarding the growing structured training database. However, E-SGP maintains computational efficiency whilst the resolution of the model, (i.e., the number of inducing points) remains fixed. The examples show that E-SGP produces more accurate predictions in comparison with E-GP when the model resolutions are similar in both. E-GP benefits from more training data but comes with higher computational demands, while E-SGP achieves a comparable level of accuracy but is more computationally efficient, making E-SGP a potentially preferable choice for fluid mechanic problems. Furthermore, E-SGP can produce more reasonable estimates of model uncertainty, whilst E-GP is more likely to produce over-confident predictions.