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GD-CAF: Graph Dual-stream Convolutional Attention Fusion for Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is essential for various purposes, including flood prediction, disaster management, optimizing agricultural activities, managing transportation routes and renewable energy. While several studies have addressed this challenging task from a sequence-to-sequence perspective, most of them have focused on a single area without considering the existing correlation between multiple disjoint regions. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal graph sequence nowcasting problem. In particular, we introduce Graph Dual-stream Convolutional Attention Fusion (GD-CAF), a novel approach designed to learn from historical spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and nowcast future time step ahead precipitation at different spatial locations. GD-CAF consists of spatio-temporal convolutional attention as well as gated fusion modules which are equipped with depthwise-separable convolutional operations. This enhancement enables the model to directly process the high-dimensional spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and exploits higher-order correlations between the data dimensions. We evaluate our model on seven years of precipitation maps across Europe and its neighboring areas collected from the ERA5 dataset, provided by Copernicus. The model receives a fully connected graph in which each node represents historical observations from a specific region on the map. Consequently, each node contains a 3D tensor with time, height, and width dimensions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed GD-CAF model outperforms the other examined models. Furthermore, the averaged seasonal spatial and temporal attention scores over the test set are visualized to provide additional insights about the strongest connections between different regions or time steps. These visualizations shed light on the decision-making process of our model.


Survey of Learning Approaches for Robotic In-Hand Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human dexterity is an invaluable capability for precise manipulation of objects in complex tasks. The capability of robots to similarly grasp and perform in-hand manipulation of objects is critical for their use in the ever changing human environment, and for their ability to replace manpower. In recent decades, significant effort has been put in order to enable in-hand manipulation capabilities to robotic systems. Initial robotic manipulators followed carefully programmed paths, while later attempts provided a solution based on analytical modeling of motion and contact. However, these have failed to provide practical solutions due to inability to cope with complex environments and uncertainties. Therefore, the effort has shifted to learning-based approaches where data is collected from the real world or through a simulation, during repeated attempts to complete various tasks. The vast majority of learning approaches focused on learning data-based models that describe the system to some extent or Reinforcement Learning (RL). RL, in particular, has seen growing interest due to the remarkable ability to generate solutions to problems with minimal human guidance. In this survey paper, we track the developments of learning approaches for in-hand manipulations and, explore the challenges and opportunities. This survey is designed both as an introduction for novices in the field with a glossary of terms as well as a guide of novel advances for advanced practitioners.


Adaptive Neural-Operator Backstepping Control of a Benchmark Hyperbolic PDE

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To stabilize PDEs, feedback controllers require gain kernel functions, which are themselves governed by PDEs. Furthermore, these gain-kernel PDEs depend on the PDE plants' functional coefficients. The functional coefficients in PDE plants are often unknown. This requires an adaptive approach to PDE control, i.e., an estimation of the plant coefficients conducted concurrently with control, where a separate PDE for the gain kernel must be solved at each timestep upon the update in the plant coefficient function estimate. Solving a PDE at each timestep is computationally expensive and a barrier to the implementation of real-time adaptive control of PDEs. Recently, results in neural operator (NO) approximations of functional mappings have been introduced into PDE control, for replacing the computation of the gain kernel with a neural network that is trained, once offline, and reused in real-time for rapid solution of the PDEs. In this paper, we present the first result on applying NOs in adaptive PDE control, presented for a benchmark 1-D hyperbolic PDE with recirculation. We establish global stabilization via Lyapunov analysis, in the plant and parameter error states, and also present an alternative approach, via passive identifiers, which avoids the strong assumptions on kernel differentiability. We then present numerical simulations demonstrating stability and observe speedups up to three orders of magnitude, highlighting the real-time efficacy of neural operators in adaptive control. Our code (Github) is made publicly available for future researchers.


Certifiable Mutual Localization and Trajectory Planning for Bearing-Based Robot Swarm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bearing measurements,as the most common modality in nature, have recently gained traction in multi-robot systems to enhance mutual localization and swarm collaboration. Despite their advantages, challenges such as sensory noise, obstacle occlusion, and uncoordinated swarm motion persist in real-world scenarios, potentially leading to erroneous state estimation and undermining the system's flexibility, practicality, and robustness.In response to these challenges, in this paper we address theoretical and practical problem related to both mutual localization and swarm planning.Firstly, we propose a certifiable mutual localization algorithm.It features a concise problem formulation coupled with lossless convex relaxation, enabling independence from initial values and globally optimal relative pose recovery.Then, to explore how detection noise and swarm motion influence estimation optimality, we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the interplay between robots' mutual spatial relationship and mutual localization. We develop a differentiable metric correlated with swarm trajectories to explicitly evaluate the noise resistance of optimal estimation.By establishing a finite and pre-computable threshold for this metric and accordingly generating swarm trajectories, the estimation optimality can be strictly guaranteed under arbitrary noise. Based on these findings, an optimization-based swarm planner is proposed to generate safe and smooth trajectories, with consideration of both inter-robot visibility and estimation optimality.Through numerical simulations, we evaluate the optimality and certifiablity of our estimator, and underscore the significance of our planner in enhancing estimation performance.The results exhibit considerable potential of our methods to pave the way for advanced closed-loop intelligence in swarm systems.


Joint Probability Selection and Power Allocation for Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the performance of federated learning over wireless networks, where devices with a limited energy budget train a machine learning model. The federated learning performance depends on the selection of the clients participating in the learning at each round. Most existing studies suggest deterministic approaches for the client selection, resulting in challenging optimization problems that are usually solved using heuristics, and therefore without guarantees on the quality of the final solution. We formulate a new probabilistic approach to jointly select clients and allocate power optimally so that the expected number of participating clients is maximized. To solve the problem, a new alternating algorithm is proposed, where at each step, the closed-form solutions for user selection probabilities and power allocations are obtained. Our numerical results show that the proposed approach achieves a significant performance in terms of energy consumption, completion time and accuracy as compared to the studied benchmarks.


Combining Machine Learning and Ontology: A Systematic Literature Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by the desire to explore the process of combining inductive and deductive reasoning, we conducted a systematic literature review of articles that investigate the integration of machine learning and ontologies. The objective was to identify diverse techniques that incorporate both inductive reasoning (performed by machine learning) and deductive reasoning (performed by ontologies) into artificial intelligence systems. Our review, which included the analysis of 128 studies, allowed us to identify three main categories of hybridization between machine learning and ontologies: learning-enhanced ontologies, semantic data mining, and learning and reasoning systems. We provide a comprehensive examination of all these categories, emphasizing the various machine learning algorithms utilized in the studies. Furthermore, we compared our classification with similar recent work in the field of hybrid AI and neuro-symbolic approaches.


Conformal Approach To Gaussian Process Surrogate Evaluation With Coverage Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an estimate of the posterior prediction variance, the latter being used to produce Bayesian credibility intervals. Interpreting these intervals relies on the Gaussianity of the simulation model as well as the well-specification of the priors which are not always appropriate. We propose to address this issue with the help of conformal prediction. In the present work, a method for building adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals is proposed by weighting the non-conformity score with the posterior standard deviation of the GP. The resulting conformal prediction intervals exhibit a level of adaptivity akin to Bayesian credibility sets and display a significant correlation with the surrogate model local approximation error, while being free from the underlying model assumptions and having frequentist coverage guarantees. These estimators can thus be used for evaluating the quality of a GP surrogate model and can assist a decision-maker in the choice of the best prior for the specific application of the GP. The performance of the method is illustrated through a panel of numerical examples based on various reference databases. Moreover, the potential applicability of the method is demonstrated in the context of surrogate modeling of an expensive-to-evaluate simulator of the clogging phenomenon in steam generators of nuclear reactors.


Inferring Preferences from Demonstrations in Multi-Objective Residential Energy Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It is often challenging for a user to articulate their preferences accurately in multi-objective decision-making problems. Demonstration-based preference inference (DemoPI) is a promising approach to mitigate this problem. Understanding the behaviours and values of energy customers is an example of a scenario where preference inference can be used to gain insights into the values of energy customers with multiple objectives, e.g. cost and comfort. In this work, we applied the state-of-art DemoPI method, i.e., the dynamic weight-based preference inference (DWPI) algorithm in a multi-objective residential energy consumption setting to infer preferences from energy consumption demonstrations by simulated users following a rule-based approach. According to our experimental results, the DWPI model achieves accurate demonstration-based preference inferring in three scenarios. These advancements enhance the usability and effectiveness of multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) in energy management, enabling more intuitive and user-friendly preference specifications, and opening the door for DWPI to be applied in real-world settings.


Go-Explore for Residential Energy Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning is commonly applied in residential energy management, particularly for optimizing energy costs. However, RL agents often face challenges when dealing with deceptive and sparse rewards in the energy control domain, especially with stochastic rewards. In such situations, thorough exploration becomes crucial for learning an optimal policy. Unfortunately, the exploration mechanism can be misled by deceptive reward signals, making thorough exploration difficult. Go-Explore is a family of algorithms which combines planning methods and reinforcement learning methods to achieve efficient exploration. We use the Go-Explore algorithm to solve the cost-saving task in residential energy management problems and achieve an improvement of up to 19.84\% compared to the well-known reinforcement learning algorithms.


PhilEO Bench: Evaluating Geo-Spatial Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Massive amounts of unlabelled data are captured by Earth Observation (EO) satellites, with the Sentinel-2 constellation generating 1.6 TB of data daily. This makes Remote Sensing a data-rich domain well suited to Machine Learning (ML) solutions. However, a bottleneck in applying ML models to EO is the lack of annotated data as annotation is a labour-intensive and costly process. As a result, research in this domain has focused on Self-Supervised Learning and Foundation Model approaches. This paper addresses the need to evaluate different Foundation Models on a fair and uniform benchmark by introducing the PhilEO Bench, a novel evaluation framework for EO Foundation Models. The framework comprises of a testbed and a novel 400 GB Sentinel-2 dataset containing labels for three downstream tasks, building density estimation, road segmentation, and land cover classification. We present experiments using our framework evaluating different Foundation Models, including Prithvi and SatMAE, at multiple n-shots and convergence rates.