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S2DEVFMAP: Self-Supervised Learning Framework with Dual Ensemble Voting Fusion for Maximizing Anomaly Prediction in Timeseries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection plays a crucial role in industrial settings, particularly in maintaining the reliability and optimal performance of cooling systems. Traditional anomaly detection methods often face challenges in handling diverse data characteristics and variations in noise levels, resulting in limited effectiveness. And yet traditional anomaly detection often relies on application of single models. This work proposes a novel, robust approach using five heterogeneous independent models combined with a dual ensemble fusion of voting techniques. Diverse models capture various system behaviors, while the fusion strategy maximizes detection effectiveness and minimizes false alarms. Each base autoencoder model learns a unique representation of the data, leveraging their complementary strengths to improve anomaly detection performance. To increase the effectiveness and reliability of final anomaly prediction, dual ensemble technique is applied. This approach outperforms in maximizing the coverage of identifying anomalies. Experimental results on a real-world dataset of industrial cooling system data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. This approach can be extended to other industrial applications where anomaly detection is critical for ensuring system reliability and preventing potential malfunctions.


An Efficient Reconstructed Differential Evolution Variant by Some of the Current State-of-the-art Strategies for Solving Single Objective Bound Constrained Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Complex single-objective bounded problems are often difficult to solve. In evolutionary computation methods, since the proposal of differential evolution algorithm in 1997, it has been widely studied and developed due to its simplicity and efficiency. These developments include various adaptive strategies, operator improvements, and the introduction of other search methods. After 2014, research based on LSHADE has also been widely studied by researchers. However, although recently proposed improvement strategies have shown superiority over their previous generation's first performance, adding all new strategies may not necessarily bring the strongest performance. Therefore, we recombine some effective advances based on advanced differential evolution variants in recent years and finally determine an effective combination scheme to further promote the performance of differential evolution. In this paper, we propose a strategy recombination and reconstruction differential evolution algorithm called reconstructed differential evolution (RDE) to solve single-objective bounded optimization problems. Based on the benchmark suite of the 2024 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC2024), we tested RDE and several other advanced differential evolution variants. The experimental results show that RDE has superior performance in solving complex optimization problems.


ABCD: Trust enhanced Attention based Convolutional Autoencoder for Risk Assessment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection in industrial systems is crucial for preventing equipment failures, ensuring risk identification, and maintaining overall system efficiency. Traditional monitoring methods often rely on fixed thresholds and empirical rules, which may not be sensitive enough to detect subtle changes in system health and predict impending failures. To address this limitation, this paper proposes, a novel Attention-based convolutional autoencoder (ABCD) for risk detection and map the risk value derive to the maintenance planning. ABCD learns the normal behavior of conductivity from historical data of a real-world industrial cooling system and reconstructs the input data, identifying anomalies that deviate from the expected patterns. The framework also employs calibration techniques to ensure the reliability of its predictions. Evaluation results demonstrate that with the attention mechanism in ABCD a 57.4% increase in performance and a reduction of false alarms by 9.37% is seen compared to without attention. The approach can effectively detect risks, the risk priority rank mapped to maintenance, providing valuable insights for cooling system designers and service personnel. Calibration error of 0.03% indicates that the model is well-calibrated and enhances model's trustworthiness, enabling informed decisions about maintenance strategies


Probabilistic forecasting of power system imbalance using neural network-based ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Keeping the balance between electricity generation and consumption is becoming increasingly challenging and costly, mainly due to the rising share of renewables, electric vehicles and heat pumps and electrification of industrial processes. Accurate imbalance forecasts, along with reliable uncertainty estimations, enable transmission system operators (TSOs) to dispatch appropriate reserve volumes, reducing balancing costs. Further, market parties can use these probabilistic forecasts to design strategies that exploit asset flexibility to help balance the grid, generating revenue with known risks. Despite its importance, literature regarding system imbalance (SI) forecasting is limited. Further, existing methods do not focus on situations with high imbalance magnitude, which are crucial to forecast accurately for both TSOs and market parties. Hence, we propose an ensemble of C-VSNs, which are our adaptation of variable selection networks (VSNs). Each minute, our model predicts the imbalance of the current and upcoming two quarter-hours, along with uncertainty estimations on these forecasts. We evaluate our approach by forecasting the imbalance of Belgium, where high imbalance magnitude is defined as $|$SI$| > 500\,$MW (occurs 1.3% of the time in Belgium). For high imbalance magnitude situations, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art by 23.4% (in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), which evaluates probabilistic forecasts), while also attaining a 6.5% improvement in overall CRPS. Similar improvements are achieved in terms of root-mean-squared error. Additionally, we developed a fine-tuning methodology to effectively include new inputs with limited history in our model. This work was performed in collaboration with Elia (the Belgian TSO) to further improve their imbalance forecasts, demonstrating the relevance of our work.


Jon Stewart Is Right About the Dangers of AI

TIME - Tech

Recently Jon Stewart did a segment poking satire at the promises of AI highlighted by tech CEOs. I don't think automating your toasters is the best way to show the potential of AI, as Jon did, but I do agree with the central premise of his argument that disruption caused by AI will be harnessed to prioritize profits over people. It will likely cause one of the largest and fastest labor displacements in human history. I run an AI company based in Silicon Valley focused on solving climate change, and I am a former policymaker for the government of India. At the World Economic Forum Davos 2024, my discussions with media, heads of state, and CEOs of Fortune 500 companies underscored global perspectives on AI, where AI was widely discussed to unlock the next productivity revolution, foster wealth creation, and uplift people out of poverty by democratizing and reducing the cost of access to information/education.


Ships smuggling Russian oil spotted in satellite images by AI

New Scientist

Artificial intelligence can spot stealthy cargo transfers between "dark ships", vessels that have switched off their identification transponders. This could make it much easier to track the shadow fleet secretly transferring crude oil in defiance of international sanctions. Such ship-to-ship transfers at sea have skyrocketed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine spurred the European Union to ban the import of Russian crude oil.


Evaluating Dynamic Environment Difficulty for Obstacle Avoidance Benchmarking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dynamic obstacle avoidance is a popular research topic for autonomous systems, such as micro aerial vehicles and service robots. Accurately evaluating the performance of dynamic obstacle avoidance methods necessitates the establishment of a metric to quantify the environment's difficulty, a crucial aspect that remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose four metrics to measure the difficulty of dynamic environments. These metrics aim to comprehensively capture the influence of obstacles' number, size, velocity, and other factors on the difficulty. We compare the proposed metrics with existing static environment difficulty metrics and validate them through over 1.5 million trials in a customized simulator. This simulator excludes the effects of perception and control errors and supports different motion and gaze planners for obstacle avoidance. The results indicate that the survivability metric outperforms and establishes a monotonic relationship between the success rate, with a Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCC) of over 0.9. Specifically, for every planner, lower survivability leads to a higher success rate. This metric not only facilitates fair and comprehensive benchmarking but also provides insights for refining collision avoidance methods, thereby furthering the evolution of autonomous systems in dynamic environments.


FedGreen: Carbon-aware Federated Learning with Model Size Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) provides a promising collaborative framework to build a model from distributed clients, and this work investigates the carbon emission of the FL process. Cloud and edge servers hosting FL clients may exhibit diverse carbon footprints influenced by their geographical locations with varying power sources, offering opportunities to reduce carbon emissions by training local models with adaptive computations and communications. In this paper, we propose FedGreen, a carbon-aware FL approach to efficiently train models by adopting adaptive model sizes shared with clients based on their carbon profiles and locations using ordered dropout as a model compression technique. We theoretically analyze the trade-offs between the produced carbon emissions and the convergence accuracy, considering the carbon intensity discrepancy across countries to choose the parameters optimally. Empirical studies show that FedGreen can substantially reduce the carbon footprints of FL compared to the state-of-the-art while maintaining competitive model accuracy.


Human-in-the-loop Learning for Dynamic Congestion Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today mobile users learn and share their traffic observations via crowdsourcing platforms (e.g., Waze). Yet such platforms simply cater to selfish users' myopic interests to recommend the shortest path, and do not encourage enough users to travel and learn other paths for future others. Prior studies focus on one-shot congestion games without considering users' information learning, while our work studies how users learn and alter traffic conditions on stochastic paths in a human-in-the-loop manner. Our analysis shows that the myopic routing policy leads to severe under-exploration of stochastic paths. This results in a price of anarchy (PoA) greater than $2$, as compared to the socially optimal policy in minimizing the long-term social cost. Besides, the myopic policy fails to ensure the correct learning convergence about users' traffic hazard beliefs. To address this, we focus on informational (non-monetary) mechanisms as they are easier to implement than pricing. We first show that existing information-hiding mechanisms and deterministic path-recommendation mechanisms in Bayesian persuasion literature do not work with even (\text{PoA}=\infty). Accordingly, we propose a new combined hiding and probabilistic recommendation (CHAR) mechanism to hide all information from a selected user group and provide state-dependent probabilistic recommendations to the other user group. Our CHAR successfully ensures PoA less than (\frac{5}{4}), which cannot be further reduced by any other informational (non-monetary) mechanism. Besides the parallel network, we further extend our analysis and CHAR to more general linear path graphs with multiple intermediate nodes, and we prove that the PoA results remain unchanged. Additionally, we carry out experiments with real-world datasets to further extend our routing graphs and verify the close-to-optimal performance of our CHAR.


Decentralized Multi-Agent Trajectory Planning in Dynamic Environments with Spatiotemporal Occupancy Grid Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes a decentralized trajectory planning framework for the collision avoidance problem of multiple micro aerial vehicles (MAVs) in environments with static and dynamic obstacles. The framework utilizes spatiotemporal occupancy grid maps (SOGM), which forecast the occupancy status of neighboring space in the near future, as the environment representation. Based on this representation, we extend the kinodynamic A* and the corridor-constrained trajectory optimization algorithms to efficiently tackle static and dynamic obstacles with arbitrary shapes. Collision avoidance between communicating robots is integrated by sharing planned trajectories and projecting them onto the SOGM. The simulation results show that our method achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods in dynamic environments with different numbers and shapes of obstacles. Finally, the proposed method is validated in real experiments.