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Validating Deep-Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Events

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The forecast accuracy of deep-learning-based weather prediction models is improving rapidly, leading many to speak of a "second revolution in weather forecasting". With numerous methods being developed, and limited physical guarantees offered by deep-learning models, there is a critical need for comprehensive evaluation of these emerging techniques. While this need has been partly fulfilled by benchmark datasets, they provide little information on rare and impactful extreme events, or on compound impact metrics, for which model accuracy might degrade due to misrepresented dependencies between variables. To address these issues, we compare deep-learning weather prediction models (GraphCast, PanguWeather, FourCastNet) and ECMWF's high-resolution forecast (HRES) system in three case studies: the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, the 2023 South Asian humid heatwave, and the North American winter storm in 2021. We find evidence that machine learning (ML) weather prediction models can locally achieve similar accuracy to HRES on record-shattering events such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave and even forecast the compound 2021 North American winter storm substantially better. However, extrapolating to extreme conditions may impact machine learning models more severely than HRES, as evidenced by the comparable or superior spatially- and temporally-aggregated forecast accuracy of HRES for the two heatwaves studied. The ML forecasts also lack variables required to assess the health risks of events such as the 2023 South Asian humid heatwave. Generally, case-study-driven, impact-centric evaluation can complement existing research, increase public trust, and aid in developing reliable ML weather prediction models.


Implementation of Big AI Models for Wireless Networks with Collaborative Edge Computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Big Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have emerged as a crucial element in various intelligent applications at the edge, such as voice assistants in smart homes and autonomous robotics in smart factories. Training big AI models, e.g., for personalized fine-tuning and continual model refinement, poses significant challenges to edge devices due to the inherent conflict between limited computing resources and intensive workload associated with training. Despite the constraints of on-device training, traditional approaches usually resort to aggregating training data and sending it to a remote cloud for centralized training. Nevertheless, this approach is neither sustainable, which strains long-range backhaul transmission and energy-consuming datacenters, nor safely private, which shares users' raw data with remote infrastructures. To address these challenges, we alternatively observe that prevalent edge environments usually contain a diverse collection of trusted edge devices with untapped idle resources, which can be leveraged for edge training acceleration. Motivated by this, in this article, we propose collaborative edge training, a novel training mechanism that orchestrates a group of trusted edge devices as a resource pool for expedited, sustainable big AI model training at the edge. As an initial step, we present a comprehensive framework for building collaborative edge training systems and analyze in-depth its merits and sustainable scheduling choices following its workflow. To further investigate the impact of its parallelism design, we empirically study a case of four typical parallelisms from the perspective of energy demand with realistic testbeds. Finally, we discuss open challenges for sustainable collaborative edge training to point to future directions of edge-centric big AI model training.


Optimizing Cycle Life Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries via a Physics-Informed Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately measuring the cycle lifetime of commercial lithium-ion batteries is crucial for performance and technology development. We introduce a novel hybrid approach combining a physics-based equation with a self-attention model to predict the cycle lifetimes of commercial lithium iron phosphate graphite cells via early-cycle data. After fitting capacity loss curves to this physics-based equation, we then use a self-attention layer to reconstruct entire battery capacity loss curves. Our model exhibits comparable performances to existing models while predicting more information: the entire capacity loss curve instead of cycle life. This provides more robustness and interpretability: our model does not need to be retrained for a different notion of end-of-life and is backed by physical intuition.


Low Cost Machine Vision for Insect Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Preserving the number and diversity of insects is one of our society's most important goals in the area of environmental sustainability. A prerequisite for this is a systematic and up-scaled monitoring in order to detect correlations and identify countermeasures. Therefore, automatized monitoring using live traps is important, but so far there is no system that provides image data of sufficient detailed information for entomological classification. In this work, we present an imaging method as part of a multisensor system developed as a low-cost, scalable, open-source system that is adaptable to classical trap types. The image quality meets the requirements needed for classification in the taxonomic tree. Therefore, illumination and resolution have been optimized and motion artefacts have been suppressed. The system is evaluated exemplarily on a dataset consisting of 16 insect species of the same as well as different genus, family and order. We demonstrate that standard CNN-architectures like ResNet50 (pretrained on iNaturalist data) or MobileNet perform very well for the prediction task after re-training. Smaller custom made CNNs also lead to promising results. Classification accuracy of $>96\%$ has been achieved. Moreover, it was proved that image cropping of insects is necessary for classification of species with high inter-class similarity.


Efficient Deterministic Renewable Energy Forecasting Guided by Multiple-Location Weather Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electricity generated from renewable energy sources has been established as an efficient remedy for both energy shortages and the environmental pollution stemming from conventional energy production methods. Solar and wind power are two of the most dominant renewable energy sources. The accurate forecasting of the energy generation of those sources facilitates their integration into electric grids, by minimizing the negative impact of uncertainty regarding their management and operation. This paper proposes a novel methodology for deterministic wind and solar energy generation forecasting for multiple generation sites, utilizing multi-location weather forecasts. The method employs a U-shaped Temporal Convolutional Auto-Encoder (UTCAE) architecture for temporal processing of weather-related and energy-related time-series across each site. The Multi-sized Kernels convolutional Spatio-Temporal Attention (MKST-Attention), inspired by the multi-head scaled-dot product attention mechanism, is also proposed aiming to efficiently transfer temporal patterns from weather data to energy data, without a priori knowledge of the locations of the power stations and the locations of provided weather data. The conducted experimental evaluation on a day-ahead solar and wind energy forecasting scenario on five datasets demonstrated that the proposed method achieves top results, outperforming all competitive time-series forecasting state-of-the-art methods.


MCSDNet: Mesoscale Convective System Detection Network via Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The accurate detection of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) is crucial for meteorological monitoring due to their potential to cause significant destruction through severe weather phenomena such as hail, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall. However, the existing methods for MCS detection mostly targets on single-frame detection, which just considers the static characteristics and ignores the temporal evolution in the life cycle of MCS. In this paper, we propose a novel encoder-decoder neural network for MCS detection(MCSDNet). MCSDNet has a simple architecture and is easy to expand. Different from the previous models, MCSDNet targets on multi-frames detection and leverages multi-scale spatiotemporal information for the detection of MCS regions in remote sensing imagery(RSI). As far as we know, it is the first work to utilize multi-scale spatiotemporal information to detect MCS regions. Firstly, we design a multi-scale spatiotemporal information module to extract multi-level semantic from different encoder levels, which makes our models can extract more detail spatiotemporal features. Secondly, a Spatiotemporal Mix Unit(STMU) is introduced to MCSDNet to capture both intra-frame features and inter-frame correlations, which is a scalable module and can be replaced by other spatiotemporal module, e.g., CNN, RNN, Transformer and our proposed Dual Spatiotemporal Attention(DSTA). This means that the future works about spatiotemporal modules can be easily integrated to our model. Finally, we present MCSRSI, the first publicly available dataset for multi-frames MCS detection based on visible channel images from the FY-4A satellite. We also conduct several experiments on MCSRSI and find that our proposed MCSDNet achieve the best performance on MCS detection task when comparing to other baseline methods.


Machine Learning based prediction of Vanadium Redox Flow Battery temperature rise under different charge-discharge conditions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate prediction of battery temperature rise is very essential for designing an efficient thermal management scheme. In this paper, machine learning (ML) based prediction of Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB) thermal behavior during charge-discharge operation has been demonstrated for the first time. Considering different currents with a specified electrolyte flow rate, the temperature of a kW scale VRFB system is studied through experiments. Three different ML algorithms; Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) have been used for the prediction work. The training and validation of ML algorithms have been done by the practical dataset of a 1kW 6kWh VRFB storage under 40A, 45A, 50A and 60A charge-discharge currents and 10 L min-1 of flow rate. A comparative analysis among the ML algorithms is done in terms of performance metrics such as correlation coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). It is observed that XGBoost shows the highest accuracy in prediction of around 99%. The ML based prediction results obtained in this work can be very useful for controlling the VRFB temperature rise during operation and act as indicator for further development of an optimized thermal management system.


Knowledge Transfer for Cross-Domain Reinforcement Learning: A Systematic Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a framework in which agents can be trained, via trial and error, to solve complex decision-making problems. Learning with little supervision causes RL methods to require large amounts of data, which renders them too expensive for many applications (e.g. robotics). By reusing knowledge from a different task, knowledge transfer methods present an alternative to reduce the training time in RL. Given how severe data scarcity can be, there has been a growing interest for methods capable of transferring knowledge across different domains (i.e. problems with different representation) due to the flexibility they offer. This review presents a unifying analysis of methods focused on transferring knowledge across different domains. Through a taxonomy based on a transfer-approach categorization, and a characterization of works based on their data-assumption requirements, the objectives of this article are to 1) provide a comprehensive and systematic revision of knowledge transfer methods for the cross-domain RL setting, 2) categorize and characterize these methods to provide an analysis based on relevant features such as their transfer approach and data requirements, and 3) discuss the main challenges regarding cross-domain knowledge transfer, as well as ideas of future directions worth exploring to address these problems.


Spatial-frequency Dual-Domain Feature Fusion Network for Low-Light Remote Sensing Image Enhancement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Low-light remote sensing images generally feature high resolution and high spatial complexity, with continuously distributed surface features in space. This continuity in scenes leads to extensive long-range correlations in spatial domains within remote sensing images. Convolutional Neural Networks, which rely on local correlations for long-distance modeling, struggle to establish long-range correlations in such images. On the other hand, transformer-based methods that focus on global information face high computational complexities when processing high-resolution remote sensing images. From another perspective, Fourier transform can compute global information without introducing a large number of parameters, enabling the network to more efficiently capture the overall image structure and establish long-range correlations. Therefore, we propose a Dual-Domain Feature Fusion Network (DFFN) for low-light remote sensing image enhancement. Specifically, this challenging task of low-light enhancement is divided into two more manageable sub-tasks: the first phase learns amplitude information to restore image brightness, and the second phase learns phase information to refine details. To facilitate information exchange between the two phases, we designed an information fusion affine block that combines data from different phases and scales. Additionally, we have constructed two dark light remote sensing datasets to address the current lack of datasets in dark light remote sensing image enhancement. Extensive evaluations show that our method outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/iijjlk/DFFN.


NeuraChip: Accelerating GNN Computations with a Hash-based Decoupled Spatial Accelerator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are emerging as a formidable tool for processing non-euclidean data across various domains, ranging from social network analysis to bioinformatics. Despite their effectiveness, their adoption has not been pervasive because of scalability challenges associated with large-scale graph datasets, particularly when leveraging message passing. To tackle these challenges, we introduce NeuraChip, a novel GNN spatial accelerator based on Gustavson's algorithm. NeuraChip decouples the multiplication and addition computations in sparse matrix multiplication. This separation allows for independent exploitation of their unique data dependencies, facilitating efficient resource allocation. We introduce a rolling eviction strategy to mitigate data idling in on-chip memory as well as address the prevalent issue of memory bloat in sparse graph computations. Furthermore, the compute resource load balancing is achieved through a dynamic reseeding hash-based mapping, ensuring uniform utilization of computing resources agnostic of sparsity patterns. Finally, we present NeuraSim, an open-source, cycle-accurate, multi-threaded, modular simulator for comprehensive performance analysis. Overall, NeuraChip presents a significant improvement, yielding an average speedup of 22.1x over Intel's MKL, 17.1x over NVIDIA's cuSPARSE, 16.7x over AMD's hipSPARSE, and 1.5x over prior state-of-the-art SpGEMM accelerator and 1.3x over GNN accelerator. The source code for our open-sourced simulator and performance visualizer is publicly accessible on GitHub https://neurachip.us