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Measuring model variability using robust non-parametric testing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Training a deep neural network often involves stochastic optimization, meaning each run will produce a different model. The seed used to initialize random elements of the optimization procedure heavily influences the quality of a trained model, which may be obscure from many commonly reported summary statistics, like accuracy. However, random seed is often not included in hyper-parameter optimization, perhaps because the relationship between seed and model quality is hard to describe. This work attempts to describe the relationship between deep net models trained with different random seeds and the behavior of the expected model. We adopt robust hypothesis testing to propose a novel summary statistic for network similarity, referred to as the $\alpha$-trimming level. We use the $\alpha$-trimming level to show that the empirical cumulative distribution function of an ensemble model created from a collection of trained models with different random seeds approximates the average of these functions as the number of models in the collection grows large. This insight provides guidance for how many random seeds should be sampled to ensure that an ensemble of these trained models is a reliable representative. We also show that the $\alpha$-trimming level is more expressive than different performance metrics like validation accuracy, churn, or expected calibration error when taken alone and may help with random seed selection in a more principled fashion. We demonstrate the value of the proposed statistic in real experiments and illustrate the advantage of fine-tuning over random seed with an experiment in transfer learning.


The Download: fighting blackouts with battery-swap networks, and AI surgery monitoring

MIT Technology Review

On the morning of April 3, Taiwan was hit by a 7.4 magnitude earthquake. Seconds later, hundreds of battery-swap stations in Taiwan sensed something else: the power frequency of the electric grid took a sudden drop, a signal that some power plants had been disconnected in the disaster. The grid was now struggling to meet energy demand. These stations, built by the Taiwanese company Gogoro for electric-powered two-wheeled vehicles like scooters, mopeds, and bikes, reacted immediately. According to numbers provided by the company, 590 Gogoro battery-swap locations (some of which have more than one swap station) stopped drawing electricity from the grid, lowering local demand by a total six megawatts--enough to power thousands of homes. It took 12 minutes for the grid to recover, and the battery-swap stations then resumed normal operation.


Hearing Anything Anywhere

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have seen immense progress in 3D computer vision and computer graphics, with emerging tools that can virtualize real-world 3D environments for numerous Mixed Reality (XR) applications. However, alongside immersive visual experiences, immersive auditory experiences are equally vital to our holistic perception of an environment. In this paper, we aim to reconstruct the spatial acoustic characteristics of an arbitrary environment given only a sparse set of (roughly 12) room impulse response (RIR) recordings and a planar reconstruction of the scene, a setup that is easily achievable by ordinary users. To this end, we introduce DiffRIR, a differentiable RIR rendering framework with interpretable parametric models of salient acoustic features of the scene, including sound source directivity and surface reflectivity. This allows us to synthesize novel auditory experiences through the space with any source audio. To evaluate our method, we collect a dataset of RIR recordings and music in four diverse, real environments. We show that our model outperforms state-ofthe-art baselines on rendering monaural and binaural RIRs and music at unseen locations, and learns physically interpretable parameters characterizing acoustic properties of the sound source and surfaces in the scene.


Beyond ELBOs: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Variational Methods for Sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance measures and limited method comparisons across diverse tasks, complicating the assessment of progress and hindering the decision-making of practitioners. In response to these challenges, our work introduces a benchmark that evaluates sampling methods using a standardized task suite and a broad range of performance criteria. Moreover, we study existing metrics for quantifying mode collapse and introduce novel metrics for this purpose. Our findings provide insights into strengths and weaknesses of existing sampling methods, serving as a valuable reference for future developments. The code is publicly available here.


Predicting Cascading Failures with a Hyperparametric Diffusion Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study cascading failures in power grids through the lens of information diffusion models. Similar to the spread of rumors or influence in an online social network, it has been observed that failures (outages) in a power grid can spread contagiously, driven by viral spread mechanisms. We employ a stochastic diffusion model that is Markovian (memoryless) and local (the activation of one node, i.e., transmission line, can only be caused by its neighbors). Our model integrates viral diffusion principles with physics-based concepts, by correlating the diffusion weights (contagion probabilities between transmission lines) with the hyperparametric Information Cascades (IC) model. We show that this diffusion model can be learned from traces of cascading failures, enabling accurate modeling and prediction of failure propagation. This approach facilitates actionable information through well-understood and efficient graph analysis methods and graph diffusion simulations. Furthermore, by leveraging the hyperparametric model, we can predict diffusion and mitigate the risks of cascading failures even in unseen grid configurations, whereas existing methods falter due to a lack of training data. Extensive experiments based on a benchmark power grid and simulations therein show that our approach effectively captures the failure diffusion phenomena and guides decisions to strengthen the grid, reducing the risk of large-scale cascading failures. Additionally, we characterize our model's sample complexity, improving upon the existing bound.


Meent: Differentiable Electromagnetic Simulator for Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electromagnetic (EM) simulation plays a crucial role in analyzing and designing devices with sub-wavelength scale structures such as solar cells, semiconductor devices, image sensors, future displays and integrated photonic devices. Specifically, optics problems such as estimating semiconductor device structures and designing nanophotonic devices provide intriguing research topics with far-reaching real world impact. Traditional algorithms for such tasks require iteratively refining parameters through simulations, which often yield sub-optimal results due to the high computational cost of both the algorithms and EM simulations. Machine learning (ML) emerged as a promising candidate to mitigate these challenges, and optics research community has increasingly adopted ML algorithms to obtain results surpassing classical methods across various tasks. To foster a synergistic collaboration between the optics and ML communities, it is essential to have an EM simulation software that is user-friendly for both research communities. To this end, we present Meent, an EM simulation software that employs rigorous coupled-wave analysis (RCWA). Developed in Python and equipped with automatic differentiation (AD) capabilities, Meent serves as a versatile platform for integrating ML into optics research and vice versa. To demonstrate its utility as a research platform, we present three applications of Meent: 1) generating a dataset for training neural operator, 2) serving as an environment for the reinforcement learning of nanophotonic device optimization, and 3) providing a solution for inverse problems with gradient-based optimizers. These applications highlight Meent's potential to advance both EM simulation and ML methodologies. The code is available at https://github.com/kc-ml2/meent with the MIT license to promote the cross-polinations of ideas among academic researchers and industry practitioners.


Sustainable self-supervised learning for speech representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sustainable artificial intelligence focuses on data, hardware, and algorithms to make machine learning models more environmentally responsible. In particular, machine learning models for speech representations are computationally expensive, generating environmental concerns because of their high energy consumption. Thus, we propose a sustainable self-supervised model to learn speech representation, combining optimizations in neural layers and training to reduce computing costs. The proposed model improves over a resource-efficient baseline, reducing both memory usage and computing cost estimations. It pretrains using a single GPU in less than a day. On top of that, it improves the error rate performance of the baseline in downstream task evaluations. When comparing it to large speech representation approaches, there is an order of magnitude reduction in memory usage, while computing cost reductions represent almost three orders of magnitude improvement.


Bench2Drive: Towards Multi-Ability Benchmarking of Closed-Loop End-To-End Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In an era marked by the rapid scaling of foundation models, autonomous driving technologies are approaching a transformative threshold where end-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) emerges due to its potential of scaling up in the data-driven manner. However, existing E2E-AD methods are mostly evaluated under the open-loop log-replay manner with L2 errors and collision rate as metrics (e.g., in nuScenes), which could not fully reflect the driving performance of algorithms as recently acknowledged in the community. For those E2E-AD methods evaluated under the closed-loop protocol, they are tested in fixed routes (e.g., Town05Long and Longest6 in CARLA) with the driving score as metrics, which is known for high variance due to the unsmoothed metric function and large randomness in the long route. Besides, these methods usually collect their own data for training, which makes algorithm-level fair comparison infeasible. To fulfill the paramount need of comprehensive, realistic, and fair testing environments for Full Self-Driving (FSD), we present Bench2Drive, the first benchmark for evaluating E2E-AD systems' multiple abilities in a closed-loop manner. Bench2Drive's official training data consists of 2 million fully annotated frames, collected from 10000 short clips uniformly distributed under 44 interactive scenarios (cut-in, overtaking, detour, etc), 23 weathers (sunny, foggy, rainy, etc), and 12 towns (urban, village, university, etc) in CARLA v2. Its evaluation protocol requires E2E-AD models to pass 44 interactive scenarios under different locations and weathers which sums up to 220 routes and thus provides a comprehensive and disentangled assessment about their driving capability under different situations. We implement state-of-the-art E2E-AD models and evaluate them in Bench2Drive, providing insights regarding current status and future directions.


A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The study of time series is crucial for understanding trends and anomalies over time, enabling predictive insights across various sectors. Spatio-temporal data, on the other hand, is vital for analyzing phenomena in both space and time, providing a dynamic perspective on complex system interactions. Recently, diffusion models have seen widespread application in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Not only do they enhance the generative and inferential capabilities for sequential and temporal data, but they also extend to other downstream tasks. In this survey, we comprehensively and thoroughly review the use of diffusion models in time series and spatio-temporal data, categorizing them by model category, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. In detail, we categorize diffusion models into unconditioned and conditioned types and discuss time series and spatio-temporal data separately. Unconditioned models, which operate unsupervised, are subdivided into probability-based and score-based models, serving predictive and generative tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Conditioned models, on the other hand, utilize extra information to enhance performance and are similarly divided for both predictive and generative tasks. Our survey extensively covers their application in various fields, including healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and transportation, providing a foundational understanding of how these models analyze and generate data. Through this structured overview, we aim to provide researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive understanding of diffusion models for time series and spatio-temporal data analysis, aiming to direct future innovations and applications by addressing traditional challenges and exploring innovative solutions within the diffusion model framework.


Sense Less, Generate More: Pre-training LiDAR Perception with Masked Autoencoders for Ultra-Efficient 3D Sensing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we propose a disruptively frugal LiDAR perception dataflow that generates rather than senses parts of the environment that are either predictable based on the extensive training of the environment or have limited consequence to the overall prediction accuracy. Therefore, the proposed methodology trades off sensing energy with training data for low-power robotics and autonomous navigation to operate frugally with sensors, extending their lifetime on a single battery charge. Our proposed generative pre-training strategy for this purpose, called as radially masked autoencoding (R-MAE), can also be readily implemented in a typical LiDAR system by selectively activating and controlling the laser power for randomly generated angular regions during on-field operations. Our extensive evaluations show that pre-training with R-MAE enables focusing on the radial segments of the data, thereby capturing spatial relationships and distances between objects more effectively than conventional procedures. Therefore, the proposed methodology not only reduces sensing energy but also improves prediction accuracy. For example, our extensive evaluations on Waymo, nuScenes, and KITTI datasets show that the approach achieves over a 5% average precision improvement in detection tasks across datasets and over a 4% accuracy improvement in transferring domains from Waymo and nuScenes to KITTI. In 3D object detection, it enhances small object detection by up to 4.37% in AP at moderate difficulty levels in the KITTI dataset. Even with 90% radial masking, it surpasses baseline models by up to 5.59% in mAP/mAPH across all object classes in the Waymo dataset. Additionally, our method achieves up to 3.17% and 2.31% improvements in mAP and NDS, respectively, on the nuScenes dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness with both single and fused LiDAR-camera modalities. https://github.com/sinatayebati/Radial_MAE.