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Confidence interval estimation of mixed oil length with conditional diffusion model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately estimating the mixed oil length plays a big role in the economic benefit for oil pipeline network. While various proposed methods have tried to predict the mixed oil length, they often exhibit an extremely high probability (around 50\%) of underestimating it. This is attributed to their failure to consider the statistical variability inherent in the estimated length of mixed oil. To address such issues, we propose to use the conditional diffusion model to learn the distribution of the mixed oil length given pipeline features. Subsequently, we design a confidence interval estimation for the length of the mixed oil based on the pseudo-samples generated by the learned diffusion model. To our knowledge, we are the first to present an estimation scheme for confidence interval of the oil-mixing length that considers statistical variability, thereby reducing the possibility of underestimating it. When employing the upper bound of the interval as a reference for excluding the mixed oil, the probability of underestimation can be as minimal as 5\%, a substantial reduction compared to 50\%. Furthermore, utilizing the mean of the generated pseudo samples as the estimator for the mixed oil length enhances prediction accuracy by at least 10\% compared to commonly used methods.


Job-SDF: A Multi-Granularity Dataset for Job Skill Demand Forecasting and Benchmarking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research.


Optimizing Wireless Discontinuous Reception via MAC Signaling Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the problem of controlling the Discontinuous Reception (DRX) policy from a Base Transceiver Station (BTS) in a cellular network. We do so by means of optimally timing the transmission of fast Layer-2 signaling messages (a.k.a. Medium Access Layer (MAC) Control Elements (CEs) as specified in 5G New Radio). Unlike more conventional approaches to DRX optimization, which rely on fine-tuning the values of DRX timers, we assess the gains that can be obtained solely by means of this MAC CE signalling. For the simulation part, we concentrate on traffic types typically encountered in Extended Reality (XR) applications, where the need for battery drain minimization and overheating mitigation are particularly pressing. Both 3GPP 5G New Radio (5G NR) compliant and non-compliant ("beyond 5G") MAC CEs are considered. Our simulation results show that our proposed technique strikes an improved trade-off between latency and energy savings as compared to conventional timer-based approaches that are characteristic of most current implementations. Specifically, our RL-based policy can nearly halve the active time for a single User Equipment (UE) with respect to a na\"ive MAC CE transmission policy, and still achieve near 20% active time reduction for 9 simultaneously served UEs.


FoRAG: Factuality-optimized Retrieval Augmented Generation for Web-enhanced Long-form Question Answering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has become prevalent in question-answering (QA) tasks due to its ability of utilizing search engine to enhance the quality of long-form question-answering (LFQA). Despite the emergence of various open source methods and web-enhanced commercial systems such as Bing Chat, two critical problems remain unsolved, i.e., the lack of factuality and clear logic in the generated long-form answers. In this paper, we remedy these issues via a systematic study on answer generation in web-enhanced LFQA. Specifically, we first propose a novel outline-enhanced generator to achieve clear logic in the generation of multifaceted answers and construct two datasets accordingly. Then we propose a factuality optimization method based on a carefully designed doubly fine-grained RLHF framework, which contains automatic evaluation and reward modeling in different levels of granularity. Our generic framework comprises conventional fine-grained RLHF methods as special cases. Extensive experiments verify the superiority of our proposed \textit{Factuality-optimized RAG (FoRAG)} method on both English and Chinese benchmarks. In particular, when applying our method to Llama2-7B-chat, the derived model FoRAG-L-7B outperforms WebGPT-175B in terms of three commonly used metrics (i.e., coherence, helpfulness, and factuality), while the number of parameters is much smaller (only 1/24 of that of WebGPT-175B). Our datasets and models are made publicly available for better reproducibility: https://huggingface.co/forag.


Language-Driven Closed-Loop Grasping with Model-Predictive Trajectory Replanning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Combining a vision module inside a closed-loop control system for a \emph{seamless movement} of a robot in a manipulation task is challenging due to the inconsistent update rates between utilized modules. This task is even more difficult in a dynamic environment, e.g., objects are moving. This paper presents a \emph{modular} zero-shot framework for language-driven manipulation of (dynamic) objects through a closed-loop control system with real-time trajectory replanning and an online 6D object pose localization. We segment an object within $\SI{0.5}{\second}$ by leveraging a vision language model via language commands. Then, guided by natural language commands, a closed-loop system, including a unified pose estimation and tracking and online trajectory planning, is utilized to continuously track this object and compute the optimal trajectory in real-time. Our proposed zero-shot framework provides a smooth trajectory that avoids jerky movements and ensures the robot can grasp a non-stationary object. Experiment results exhibit the real-time capability of the proposed zero-shot modular framework for the trajectory optimization module to accurately and efficiently grasp moving objects, i.e., up to \SI{30}{\hertz} update rates for the online 6D pose localization module and \SI{10}{\hertz} update rates for the receding-horizon trajectory optimization. These advantages highlight the modular framework's potential applications in robotics and human-robot interaction; see the video in https://www.acin.tuwien.ac.at/en/6e64/.


Trapezoidal Gradient Descent for Effective Reinforcement Learning in Spiking Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the field of reinforcement learning has continuously achieved breakthroughs in both theory and practice. However, traditional reinforcement learning algorithms often entail high energy consumption during interactions with the environment. Spiking Neural Network (SNN), with their low energy consumption characteristics and performance comparable to deep neural networks, have garnered widespread attention. To reduce the energy consumption of practical applications of reinforcement learning, researchers have successively proposed the Pop-SAN and MDC-SAN algorithms. Nonetheless, these algorithms use rectangular functions to approximate the spike network during the training process, resulting in low sensitivity, thus indicating room for improvement in the training effectiveness of SNN. Based on this, we propose a trapezoidal approximation gradient method to replace the spike network, which not only preserves the original stable learning state but also enhances the model's adaptability and response sensitivity under various signal dynamics. Simulation results show that the improved algorithm, using the trapezoidal approximation gradient to replace the spike network, achieves better convergence speed and performance compared to the original algorithm and demonstrates good training stability.


R^2AG: Incorporating Retrieval Information into Retrieval Augmented Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has been applied in many scenarios to augment large language models (LLMs) with external documents provided by retrievers. However, a semantic gap exists between LLMs and retrievers due to differences in their training objectives and architectures. This misalignment forces LLMs to passively accept the documents provided by the retrievers, leading to incomprehension in the generation process, where the LLMs are burdened with the task of distinguishing these documents using their inherent knowledge. This paper proposes R$^2$AG, a novel enhanced RAG framework to fill this gap by incorporating Retrieval information into Retrieval Augmented Generation. Specifically, R$^2$AG utilizes the nuanced features from the retrievers and employs a R$^2$-Former to capture retrieval information. Then, a retrieval-aware prompting strategy is designed to integrate retrieval information into LLMs' generation. Notably, R$^2$AG suits low-source scenarios where LLMs and retrievers are frozen. Extensive experiments across five datasets validate the effectiveness, robustness, and efficiency of R$^2$AG. Our analysis reveals that retrieval information serves as an anchor to aid LLMs in the generation process, thereby filling the semantic gap.


Solarcast-ML: Per Node GraphCast Extension for Solar Energy Production

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This project presents an extension to the GraphCast model, a state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) for global weather forecasting, by integrating solar energy production forecasting capabilities. The proposed approach leverages the weather forecasts generated by GraphCast and trains a neural network model to predict the ratio of actual solar output to potential solar output based on various weather conditions. The model architecture consists of an input layer corresponding to weather features (temperature, humidity, dew point, wind speed, rain, barometric pressure, and altitude), two hidden layers with ReLU activations, and an output layer predicting solar radiation. The model is trained using a mean absolute error loss function and Adam optimizer. The results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in accurately predicting solar radiation, with its convergence behavior, decreasing training loss, and accurate prediction of solar radiation patterns suggesting successful learning of the underlying relationships between weather conditions and solar radiation. The integration of solar energy production forecasting with GraphCast offers valuable insights for the renewable energy sector, enabling better planning and decision-making based on expected solar energy production. Future work could explore further model refinements, incorporation of additional weather variables, and extension to other renewable energy sources.


Optimizing Quantile-based Trading Strategies in Electricity Arbitrage

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficiently integrating renewable resources into electricity markets is vital for addressing the challenges of matching real-time supply and demand while reducing the significant energy wastage resulting from curtailments. To address this challenge effectively, the incorporation of storage devices can enhance the reliability and efficiency of the grid, improving market liquidity and reducing price volatility. In short-term electricity markets, participants navigate numerous options, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the critical role of the trading strategy in maximizing profits. This study delves into the optimization of day-ahead and balancing market trading, leveraging quantile-based forecasts. Employing three trading approaches with practical constraints, our research enhances forecast assessment, increases trading frequency, and employs flexible timestamp orders. Our findings underscore the profit potential of simultaneous participation in both day-ahead and balancing markets, especially with larger battery storage systems; despite increased costs and narrower profit margins associated with higher-volume trading, the implementation of high-frequency strategies plays a significant role in maximizing profits and addressing market challenges. Finally, we modelled four commercial battery storage systems and evaluated their economic viability through a scenario analysis, with larger batteries showing a shorter return on investment.


RACP: Risk-Aware Contingency Planning with Multi-Modal Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For an autonomous vehicle to operate reliably within real-world traffic scenarios, it is imperative to assess the repercussions of its prospective actions by anticipating the uncertain intentions exhibited by other participants in the traffic environment. Driven by the pronounced multi-modal nature of human driving behavior, this paper presents an approach that leverages Bayesian beliefs over the distribution of potential policies of other road users to construct a novel risk-aware probabilistic motion planning framework. In particular, we propose a novel contingency planner that outputs long-term contingent plans conditioned on multiple possible intents for other actors in the traffic scene. The Bayesian belief is incorporated into the optimization cost function to influence the behavior of the short-term plan based on the likelihood of other agents' policies. Furthermore, a probabilistic risk metric is employed to fine-tune the balance between efficiency and robustness. Through a series of closed-loop safety-critical simulated traffic scenarios shared with human-driven vehicles, we demonstrate the practical efficacy of our proposed approach that can handle multi-vehicle scenarios.