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Failure Risk Prediction in a MOOC: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

MOOCs offer free and open access to a wide audience, but completion rates remain low, often due to a lack of personalized content. To address this issue, it is essential to predict learner performance in order to provide tailored feedback. Behavioral traces-such as clicks and events-can be analyzed as time series to anticipate learners' outcomes. This work compares multivariate time series classification methods to identify at-risk learners at different stages of the course (after 5, 10 weeks, etc.). The experimental evaluation, conducted on the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD), focuses on three courses: two in STEM and one in SHS. Preliminary results show that the evaluated approaches are promising for predicting learner failure in MOOCs. The analysis also suggests that prediction accuracy is influenced by the amount of recorded interactions, highlighting the importance of rich and diverse behavioral data.


OpenAI is launching a version of ChatGPT for college students

MIT Technology Review

A handful of college students who were part of OpenAI's testing cohort--hailing from Princeton, Wharton, and the University of Minnesota--shared positive reviews of Study Mode, saying it did a good job of checking their understanding and adapting to their pace. The learning approaches that OpenAI has programmed into Study Mode, which are based partially on Socratic methods, appear sound, says Christopher Harris, an educator in New York who has created a curriculum aimed at AI literacy. They might grant educators more confidence about allowing, or even encouraging, their students to use AI. "Professors will see this as working with them in support of learning as opposed to just being a way for students to cheat on assignments," he says. As demonstrated in OpenAI's recent partnership with leading teachers' unions, the company is currently trying to rebrand chatbots as tools for personalized learning rather than cheating.


Parents rejoice! ChatGPT has a new 'Study Mode' that will force students to work through questions step-by-step instead of just getting an answer

Daily Mail - Science & tech

An example of how'study mode' would work. Experts say it is'especially useful' for homework help, test prep and learning new topics It also features knowledge checks in the form of quizzes and open–ended questions, along with personalised feedback. The mode can also easy be toggled on and off during a conversation. Those wanting to use it should select'Study and learn' from tools in ChatGPT. 'Instead of doing the work for them, study mode encourages students to think critically about their learning', Robbie Torney, senior director of AI Programs at Common Sense Media said.


ChatGPT's Study Mode Is Here. It Won't Fix Education's AI Problems

WIRED

The school year starts soon for many students, and ChatGPT has announced a new "study mode" that aims to prevent--or at least, encourage against--students taking homework shortcuts. The mode is designed around the Socratic method, so when activated, OpenAI's generative AI chatbot rejects direct requests for answers, instead guiding the user with open-ended questions. The new study mode is available to most logged-in users of ChatGPT, including those on the free version. OpenAI has significantly disrupted the education system over the past few years, with students becoming some of the earliest adopters of ChatGPT. Even so, OpenAI claims the bot is currently an overall boon to learners--if asked to roleplay as a synthetic tutor.


The untapped potential AI can't replace in underserved communities like mine

FOX News

Pastor and Project H.O.O.D. founder Corey Brooks says the'honest work' learned through trade schools could be the key out of poverty for many struggling in today's job market wanting to'improve their lives.' The crime of post-60s liberalism is that it created permanent Black underclasses all over America, including on the South Side of Chicago where I live. The schools here are poor. Opportunities have been replaced by government handouts. Violence robs far too many families of their loved ones.


Why does the beach make you so tired?

Popular Science

Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. No responsibilities and little to do but enjoy yourself. Yet somehow, after a whole day of blissful nothing, you find yourself completely zonked. If taking in the sea air is supposed to be restorative, why can a restful day at the beach end up feeling so tiring? There's no one certain answer, but science offers a few possibilities.


Imitation Learning in Continuous Action Spaces: Mitigating Compounding Error without Interaction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of imitating an expert demonstrator in a continuous state-and-action dynamical system. While imitation learning in discrete settings such as autoregressive language modeling has seen immense success and popularity in recent years, imitation in physical settings such as autonomous driving and robot learning has proven comparably more complex due to the compounding errors problem, often requiring elaborate set-ups to perform stably. Recent work has demonstrated that even in benign settings, exponential compounding errors are unavoidable when learning solely from expert-controlled trajectories, suggesting the need for more advanced policy parameterizations or data augmentation. To this end, we present minimal interventions that provably mitigate compounding errors in continuous state-and-action imitation learning. When the system is open-loop stable, we prescribe "action chunking," i.e., predicting and playing sequences of actions in open-loop; when the system is possibly unstable, we prescribe "noise injection," i.e., adding noise during expert demonstrations. These interventions align with popular choices in modern robot learning, though the benefits we derive are distinct from the effects they were designed to target. Our results draw insights and tools from both control theory and reinforcement learning; however, our analysis reveals novel considerations that do not naturally arise when either literature is considered in isolation.


Statistical Inference for Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Privacy preservation in machine learning, particularly through Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD), is critical for sensitive data analysis. However, existing statistical inference methods for SGD predominantly focus on cyclic subsampling, while DP-SGD requires randomized subsampling. This paper first bridges this gap by establishing the asymptotic properties of SGD under the randomized rule and extending these results to DP-SGD. For the output of DP-SGD, we show that the asymptotic variance decomposes into statistical, sampling, and privacy-induced components. Two methods are proposed for constructing valid confidence intervals: the plug-in method and the random scaling method. We also perform extensive numerical analysis, which shows that the proposed confidence intervals achieve nominal coverage rates while maintaining privacy.


Improving Group Fairness in Tensor Completion via Imbalance Mitigating Entity Augmentation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Group fairness is important to consider in tensor decomposition to prevent discrimination based on social grounds such as gender or age. Although few works have studied group fairness in tensor decomposition, they suffer from performance degradation. To address this, we propose STAFF(Sparse Tensor Augmentation For Fairness) to improve group fairness by minimizing the gap in completion errors of different groups while reducing the overall tensor completion error. Our main idea is to augment a tensor with augmented entities including sufficient observed entries to mitigate imbalance and group bias in the sparse tensor. We evaluate \method on tensor completion with various datasets under conventional and deep learning-based tensor models. STAFF consistently shows the best trade-off between completion error and group fairness; at most, it yields 36% lower MSE and 59% lower MADE than the second-best baseline.


Fast Last-Iterate Convergence of SGD in the Smooth Interpolation Regime

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study population convergence guarantees of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for smooth convex objectives in the interpolation regime, where the noise at optimum is zero or near zero. The behavior of the last iterate of SGD in this setting -- particularly with large (constant) stepsizes -- has received growing attention in recent years due to implications for the training of over-parameterized models, as well as to analyzing forgetting in continual learning and to understanding the convergence of the randomized Kaczmarz method for solving linear systems. We establish that after $T$ steps of SGD on $β$-smooth convex loss functions with stepsize $0 < η< 2/β$, the last iterate exhibits expected excess risk $\widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{η(2-βη) T^{1-βη/2}} + \fracη{(2-βη)^2} T^{βη/2} σ_\star^2)$, where $σ_\star^2$ denotes the variance of the stochastic gradients at the optimum. In particular, for a well-tuned stepsize we obtain a near optimal $\widetilde{O}(1/T + σ_\star/\sqrt{T})$ rate for the last iterate, extending the results of Varre et al. (2021) beyond least squares regression; and when $σ_\star=0$ we obtain a rate of $\smash{O(1/\sqrt T)}$ with $η=1/β$, improving upon the best-known $\smash{O(T^{-1/4})}$ rate recently established by Evron et al. (2025) in the special case of realizable linear regression.