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Knowledge Elicitation via Sequential Probabilistic Inference for High-Dimensional Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recently been dedicated to finding principled solutions for accurate prediction. However, a valuable source of additional information, domain experts, has not yet been efficiently exploited. We formulate knowledge elicitation generally as a probabilistic inference process, where expert knowledge is sequentially queried to improve predictions. In the specific case of sparse linear regression, where we assume the expert has knowledge about the values of the regression coefficients or about the relevance of the features, we propose an algorithm and computational approximation for fast and efficient interaction, which sequentially identifies the most informative features on which to query expert knowledge. Evaluations of our method in experiments with simulated and real users show improved prediction accuracy already with a small effort from the expert.


The Mathematics of Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

In the last few months, I have had several people contact me about their enthusiasm for venturing into the world of data science and using Machine Learning (ML) techniques to probe statistical regularities and build impeccable data-driven products. However, I've observed that some actually lack the necessary mathematical intuition and framework to get useful results. This is the main reason I decided to write this blog post. Recently, there has been an upsurge in the availability of many easy-to-use machine and deep learning packages such as scikit-learn, Weka, Tensorflow etc. Machine Learning theory is a field that intersects statistical, probabilistic, computer science and algorithmic aspects arising from learning iteratively from data and finding hidden insights which can be used to build intelligent applications. Despite the immense possibilities of Machine and Deep Learning, a thorough mathematical understanding of many of these techniques is necessary for a good grasp of the inner workings of the algorithms and getting good results. There are many reasons why the mathematics of Machine Learning is important and I'll highlight some of them below: What Level of Maths Do You Need?


Glove turns sign language into text for real-time translation

New Scientist

Handwriting will never be the same again. A new glove developed at the University of California, San Diego, can convert the 26 letters of American Sign Language (ASL) into text on a smartphone or computer screen. Because it's cheaper and more portable than other automatic sign language translators on the market, it could be a game changer. People in the deaf community will be able to communicate effortlessly with those who don't understand their language. ASL is a language all of its own, but few people outside the deaf community speak it.


Understanding Machine Learning: How machines learn?

@machinelearnbot

"If (there) was one thing all people took for granted, (it) was conviction that if you feed honest figures into a computer, honest figures (will) come out. Never doubted it myself till I met a computer with a sense of humor." This post is the first in a series of articles in which we will explain what Machine Learning is. You don't have to have formal training or experience in data analysis. We will write using simple language, without unnecessary technical jargon. Let's start with the definition, of course.


Hey, Tech: You'd Do Well to Stop Ignoring Smaller Cities

WIRED

The lack of diversity at tech companies is well-established: Less than 10 percent of workers at Google and LinkedIn are non-Asian minorities, for example, and only 31 percent of employees at Google are women. But the technology industry is guilty of another serious blunder that hasn't spurred the same volume of national conversation: a lack of interest, and failure to invest, in the capacity of small and mid-sized cities to shape technology's evolution. Adrian Perkins (@Diplomatofthe8) is a third-year student at Harvard Law School, founder of the marketing tech company E.merge, and strategic technology advisor to his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana. Many of the best-known tech companies were launched and remain headquartered in Silicon Valley, a region that's home to 3 million people. Tomorrow's tech ideas are also being tested in larger cities: witness AmazonFresh Pickup (Seattle) and Uber's autonomous vehicle trials (San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Tempe, Arizona); although smart city initiatives are taking off in smaller cities, the larger cities still have more than their share of smart city projects, not to mention the media coverage that perpetuates larger cities' market advantage.


Who fears losing their job to AI and robots: Japanese survey data

#artificialintelligence

Amid the stagnant productivity and potential growth rates in major advanced economies, policymakers expect the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, to drive future economic growth. In Japan, Investments for the Future Strategy 2017, the latest growth strategy of the Shinzo Abe Cabinet, places the Fourth Industrial Revolution as the top priority for growth promotion policies. On the other hand, the negative impacts of AI and robotics, especially loss of human jobs, have been actively discussed around the world. According to an influential study by Frey and Osborne (2017), about 47% of total US employment faces the risk of being computerised. Their study attracted attention not only from researchers, but also policymakers around the world.


Lip-syncing-AI-lets-words-s-mouth.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Daily Mail

The lip-syncing system, developed by researchers at the University of Washington (UW), works by converting audio files of an individual's speech into realistic mouth shapes. Then, by building on research from UW's Graphics and Image Laboratory team with a new mouth synthesis technique, the researchers were able to superimpose and blend realistic mouth shapes and textures on an existing video of that person. Then, by building on research from UW's Graphics and Image Laboratory team with a new mouth synthesis technique, the researchers were able to superimpose and blend realistic mouth shapes and textures on an existing video of that person. 'We're simply taking real words that someone spoke and turning them into realistic video of that individual,' said Dr Dr Steve Seitz, a co-author of the research However, in the future, the researchers want to improve the algorithms so they can generalize across situations and recognize a person's voice and speech patterns with less data – for example just an hour of video to learn from.


Machine Learning Vs. Artificial Intelligence: Unpacking Their Histories AdExchanger

@machinelearnbot

"Data-Driven Thinking" is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media. Today's column is written by Ken Rona, chief data scientist at IgnitionOne. There is a lot of excitement and some confusion across the ad industry around machine learning, and for good reason. The availability of cheap storage and processing has made sophisticated machine learning available to a much wider range of industries than what was available even five years ago. The media business has seen machine-learning solutions find homes in a wide variety of applications, from predicting how likely a user will click on an ad to classifying users in lookalike models and optimizing campaign delivery.


The key to jobs in the future is not college but compassion – Livia Gershon Aeon Essays

#artificialintelligence

Just as the behemoth machines of the industrial revolution made physical strength less necessary for humans, the information revolution frees us to complement, rather than compete with, the technical competence of computers. But, as the education scholar Inge Bates at the University of Sheffield found in 2007, in ethnographic studies of direct-care trainees, the most significant skills required involve coping with filth, violence and death. Waking to a crying baby or bathing an Alzheimer's patient can be both gruelling and transcendentally life-affirming In her 2007 study, Bates also found that class background seemed relevant to the care girls' ability to do their jobs. For men and women, paid and unpaid, waking at 3am to care for a crying baby or bathing a distressed Alzheimer's patient can be gruelling and transcendentally life-affirming all at once.


The key to jobs in the future is not college but compassion – Livia Gershon Aeon Essays

#artificialintelligence

Early last year, the World Economic Forum issued a paper warning that technological change is on the verge of upending the global economy. To fill the sophisticated jobs of tomorrow, the authors argued, the'reskilling and upskilling of today's workers will be critical'. Around the same time, the then president Barack Obama announced a'computer science for all' programme for elementary and high schools in the United States. '[W]e have to make sure all our kids are equipped for the jobs of the future, which means not just being able to work with computers but developing the analytical and coding skills to power our innovation economy,' he said. But the truth is, only a tiny percentage of people in the post-industrial world will ever end up working in software engineering, biotechnology or advanced manufacturing.