Rice University engineers have developed a deep learning computer system that can accurately predict extreme weather events. Rice University engineers have developed a deep learning computer system that can accurately predict extreme weather events, like heatwaves, up to five days in advance using minimal information about current weather conditions. The new network uses an analog method of weather forecasting that computers made obsolete in the 1950s. The Phys.org website reported that the system was fed hundreds of maps that show surface temperatures and air pressures at five kilometers height, and each map shows those conditions several days apart. The new system is able to make five-day forecasts of extreme weather events like heat waves or winter storms with 85 percent accuracy, the German news agency reported.

fastai is a deep learning library which provides practitioners with high-level components that can quickly and easily provide state-of-the-art results in standard deep learning domains, and provides researchers with low-level components that can be mixed and matched to build new approaches. It aims to do both things without substantial compromises in ease of use, flexibility, or performance. This is possible thanks to a carefully layered architecture, which expresses common underlying patterns of many deep learning and data processing techniques in terms of decoupled abstractions. These abstractions can be expressed concisely and clearly by leveraging the dynamism of the underlying Python language and the flexibility of the PyTorch library. fastai includes: a new type dispatch system for Python along with a semantic type hierarchy for tensors; a GPU-optimized computer vision library which can be extended in pure Python; an optimizer which refactors out the common functionality of modern optimizers into two basic pieces, allowing optimization algorithms to be implemented in 4-5 lines of code; a novel 2-way callback system that can access any part of the data, model, or optimizer and change it at any point during training; a new data block API; and much more. We have used this library to successfully create a complete deep learning course, which we were able to write more quickly than using previous approaches, and the code was more clear. The library is already in wide use in research, industry, and teaching. NB: This paper covers fastai v2, which is currently in pre-release at http://dev.fast.ai/

In many applications, one works with deep neural network (DNN) models trained by someone else. For such pretrained models, one typically does not have access to training/test data. Moreover, one does not know many details about the model, such as the specifics of the training data, the loss function, the hyperparameter values, etc. Given one or many pretrained models, can one say anything about the expected performance or quality of the models? Here, we present and evaluate empirical quality metrics for pretrained DNN models at scale. Using the open-source WeightWatcher tool, we analyze hundreds of publicly-available pretrained models, including older and current state-of-the-art models in CV and NLP. We examine norm-based capacity control metrics as well as newer Power Law (PL) based metrics (including fitted PL exponents and a Weighted Alpha metric), from the recently-developed Theory of Heavy-Tailed Self Regularization. Norm-based metrics correlate well with reported test accuracies for well-trained models across nearly all CV architecture series. On the other hand, norm-based metrics can not distinguish "good-versus-bad" models---which, arguably is the point of needing quality metrics. Indeed, they may give spurious results. PL-based metrics do much better---quantitatively better at discriminating series of "good-better-best" models, and qualitatively better at discriminating "good-versus-bad" models. PL-based metrics can also be used to characterize fine-scale properties of models, and we introduce the layer-wise Correlation Flow as new quality assessment. We show how poorly-trained (and/or poorly fine-tuned) models may exhibit both Scale Collapse and unusually large PL exponents, in particular for recent NLP models. Our techniques can be used to identify when a pretrained DNN has problems that can not be detected simply by examining training/test accuracies.

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far been neglected in supervised learning. When ignored, performativity surfaces as undesirable distribution shift, routinely addressed with retraining. We develop a risk minimization framework for performative prediction bringing together concepts from statistics, game theory, and causality. A conceptual novelty is an equilibrium notion we call performative stability. Performative stability implies that the predictions are calibrated not against past outcomes, but against the future outcomes that manifest from acting on the prediction. Our main results are necessary and sufficient conditions for the convergence of retraining to a performatively stable point of nearly minimal loss. In full generality, performative prediction strictly subsumes the setting known as strategic classification. We thus also give the first sufficient conditions for retraining to overcome strategic feedback effects.

Robustness verification that aims to formally certify the prediction behavior of neural networks has become an important tool for understanding model behavior and obtaining safety guarantees. However, previous methods can usually only handle neural networks with relatively simple architectures. In this paper, we consider the robustness verification problem for Transformers. Transformers have complex self-attention layers that pose many challenges for verification, including cross-nonlinearity and cross-position dependency, which have not been discussed in previous works. We resolve these challenges and develop the first robustness verification algorithm for Transformers. The certified robustness bounds computed by our method are significantly tighter than those by naive Interval Bound Propagation. These bounds also shed light on interpreting Transformers as they consistently reflect the importance of different words in sentiment analysis.

A similarity label indicates whether two instances belong to the same class while a class label shows the class of the instance. Without class labels, a multi-class classifier could be learned from similarity-labeled pairwise data by meta classification learning. However, since the similarity label is less informative than the class label, it is more likely to be noisy. Deep neural networks can easily remember noisy data, leading to overfitting in classification. In this paper, we propose a method for learning from only noisy-similarity-labeled data. Specifically, to model the noise, we employ a noise transition matrix to bridge the class-posterior probability between clean and noisy data. We further estimate the transition matrix from only noisy data and build a novel learning system to learn a classifier which can assign noise-free class labels for instances. Moreover, we theoretically justify how our proposed method generalizes for learning classifiers. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art method on benchmark-simulated and real-world noisy-label datasets.

In the past few years, several new matching models have been proposed and studied that take into account complex distributional constraints. Relevant lines of work include (1) school choice with diversity constraints where students have (possibly overlapping) types and (2) hospital-doctor matching where various regional quotas are imposed. In this paper, we present a polynomial-time reduction to transform an instance of (1) to an instance of (2) and we show how the feasibility and stability of corresponding matchings are preserved under the reduction. Our reduction provides a formal connection between two important strands of work on matching with distributional constraints. We then apply the reduction in two ways. Firstly, we show that it is NP-complete to check whether a feasible and stable outcome for (1) exists. Due to our reduction, these NP-completeness results carry over to setting (2). In view of this, we help unify some of the results that have been presented in the literature. Secondly, if we have positive results for (2), then we have corresponding results for (1). One key conclusion of our results is that further developments on axiomatic and algorithmic aspects of hospital-doctor matching with regional quotas will result in corresponding results for school choice with diversity constraints.

In today's newsletter to all (subscribers and non-subscribers), we will share a best of the trend article (today we are sharing Google's ML trend prediction for 2020), machine learning pre-requisites and also a few plugs why you should subscribe. Only subscribers get easter eggs! These are important resources sent directly into their inbox. For example Winter Quarter, subscribers received url links self driving car resources and Pytorch textbook giveaways. January 2020 easter eggs are what is it like to be a machine learnist at work. Subscribers, your easter eggs will arrive soon!

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width 2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound $k$, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter $k$. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on a set of neighbourhood relationships. The model allows straightforward variational optimisation of the posterior distribution on coordinates and locally linear maps from the latent space to the observation space given the data. Thus, the LL-LVM encapsulates the local-geometry preserving intuitions that underlie non-probabilistic methods such as locally linear embedding (LLE). Its probabilistic semantics make it easy to evaluate the quality of hypothesised neighbourhood relationships, select the intrinsic dimensionality of the manifold, construct out-of-sample extensions and to combine the manifold model with additional probabilistic models that capture the structure of coordinates within the manifold. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.