In this episode of the McKinsey on AI podcast miniseries, McKinsey's David DeLallo speaks with McKinsey Global Institute partner Michael Chui and associate partner Bryce Hall about the latest trends in business adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). They discuss where the technology is being used most across industries, companies, and business functions; the keys to getting impact from AI investments; and what lies ahead. There's no shortage of predictions about how it could fundamentally change the way we live and work. Over the past few years, companies around the world have been figuring out exactly how AI technologies can improve their performance in a number of areas across their business. But is AI actually delivering significant results? Moreover, what can we expect to see as we move into a new decade of AI use and development? To answer some of these questions today, I'm joined by Michael Chui, a McKinsey partner with the McKinsey Global Institute, who is based in our San Francisco office, and associate partner Bryce Hall from our Washington, DC, office.

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Neural network architectures are most often conceptually designed and described in visual terms, but are implemented by writing error-prone code. PrototypeML is a machine learning development environment that bridges the dichotomy between the design and development processes: it provides a highly intuitive visual neural network design interface that supports (yet abstracts) the full capabilities of the PyTorch deep learning framework, reduces model design and development time, makes debugging easier, and automates many framework and code writing idiosyncrasies. In this paper, we detail the deep learning development deficiencies that drove the implementation of PrototypeML, and propose a hybrid approach to resolve these issues without limiting network expressiveness or reducing code quality. We demonstrate the real-world benefits of a visual approach to neural network design for research, industry and teaching.

Block-based visual programming environments play a critical role in introducing computing concepts to K-12 students. One of the key pedagogical challenges in these environments is in designing new practice tasks for a student that match a desired level of difficulty and exercise specific programming concepts. In this paper, we formalize the problem of synthesizing visual programming tasks. In particular, given a reference visual task $\rm T^{in}$ and its solution code $\rm C^{in}$, we propose a novel methodology to automatically generate a set $\{(\rm T^{out}, \rm C^{out})\}$ of new tasks along with solution codes such that tasks $\rm T^{in}$ and $\rm T^{out}$ are conceptually similar but visually dissimilar. Our methodology is based on the realization that the mapping from the space of visual tasks to their solution codes is highly discontinuous; hence, directly mutating reference task $\rm T^{in}$ to generate new tasks is futile. Our task synthesis algorithm operates by first mutating code $\rm C^{in}$ to obtain a set of codes $\{\rm C^{out}\}$. Then, the algorithm performs symbolic execution over a code $\rm C^{out}$ to obtain a visual task $\rm T^{out}$; this step uses the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) procedure to guide the search in the symbolic tree. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through an extensive empirical evaluation and user study on reference tasks taken from the \emph{Hour of the Code: Classic Maze} challenge by \emph{Code.org} and the \emph{Intro to Programming with Karel} course by \emph{CodeHS.com}.

Despite its promise, reinforcement learning's real-world adoption has been hampered by its need for costly exploration to learn a good policy. Imitation learning (IL) mitigates this shortcoming by using an expert policy during training as a bootstrap to accelerate the learning process. However, in many practical situations, the learner has access to multiple suboptimal experts, which may provide conflicting advice in a state. The existing IL literature provides a limited treatment of such scenarios. Whereas in the single-expert case, the return of the expert's policy provides an obvious benchmark for the learner to compete against, neither such a benchmark nor principled ways of outperforming it are known for the multi-expert setting. In this paper, we propose the state-wise maximum of the expert policies' values as a natural baseline to resolve conflicting advice from multiple experts. Using a reduction of policy optimization to online learning, we introduce a novel IL algorithm MAMBA, which can provably learn a policy competitive with this benchmark. In particular, MAMBA optimizes policies by using a gradient estimator in the style of generalized advantage estimation (GAE). Our theoretical analysis shows that this design makes MAMBA robust and enables it to outperform the expert policies by a larger margin than IL state of the art, even in the single-expert case. In an evaluation against standard policy gradient with GAE and AggreVaTeD, we showcase MAMBA's ability to leverage demonstrations both from a single and from multiple weak experts, and significantly speed up policy optimization.

Public debate about AI is dominated by Frankenstein Syndrome, the fear that AI will become superhuman and escape human control. Although superintelligence is certainly a possibility, the interest it excites can distract the public from a more imminent concern: the rise of Artificial Stupidity (AS). This article discusses the roots of Frankenstein Syndrome in Mary Shelley's famous novel of 1818. It then provides a philosophical framework for analysing the stupidity of artificial agents, demonstrating that modern intelligent systems can be seen to suffer from 'stupidity of judgement'. Finally it identifies an alternative literary tradition that exposes the perils and benefits of AS. In the writings of Edmund Spenser, Jonathan Swift and E.T.A. Hoffmann, ASs replace, oppress or seduce their human users. More optimistically, Joseph Furphy and Laurence Sterne imagine ASs that can serve human intellect as maps or as pipes. These writers provide a strong counternarrative to the myths that currently drive the AI debate. They identify ways in which even stupid artificial agents can evade human control, for instance by appealing to stereotypes or distancing us from reality. And they underscore the continuing importance of the literary imagination in an increasingly automated society.

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) have been developed to provide students with personalized learning experiences by adaptively generating learning paths optimized for each individual. Within the vast scope of ITS, score prediction stands out as an area of study that enables students to construct individually realistic goals based on their current position. Via the expected score provided by the ITS, a student can instantaneously compare one's expected score to one's actual score, which directly corresponds to the reliability that the ITS can instill. In other words, refining the precision of predicted scores strictly correlates to the level of confidence that a student may have with an ITS, which will evidently ensue improved student engagement. However, previous studies have solely concentrated on improving the performance of a prediction model, largely lacking focus on the benefits generated by its practical application. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accuracy of the score prediction model deployed in a real-world setting significantly impacts user engagement by providing empirical evidence. To that end, we apply a state-of-the-art deep attentive neural network-based score prediction model to Santa, a multi-platform English ITS with approximately 780K users in South Korea that exclusively focuses on the TOEIC (Test of English for International Communications) standardized examinations. We run a controlled A/B test on the ITS with two models, respectively based on collaborative filtering and deep attentive neural networks, to verify whether the more accurate model engenders any student engagement. The results conclude that the attentive model not only induces high student morale (e.g. higher diagnostic test completion ratio, number of questions answered, etc.) but also encourages active engagement (e.g. higher purchase rate, improved total profit, etc.) on Santa.

Research in developmental psychology consistently shows that children explore the world thoroughly and efficiently and that this exploration allows them to learn. In turn, this early learning supports more robust generalization and intelligent behavior later in life. While much work has gone into developing methods for exploration in machine learning, artificial agents have not yet reached the high standard set by their human counterparts. In this work we propose using DeepMind Lab (Beattie et al., 2016) as a platform to directly compare child and agent behaviors and to develop new exploration techniques. We outline two ongoing experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of a direct comparison, and outline a number of open research questions that we believe can be tested using this methodology.

Causal parameters may not be point identified in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, information about non-identified parameters, in the form of bounds, may still be recovered from the observed data in some cases. We develop a new general method for obtaining bounds on causal parameters using rules of probability and restrictions on counterfactuals implied by causal graphical models. We additionally provide inequality constraints on functionals of the observed data law implied by such causal models. Our approach is motivated by the observation that logical relations between identified and non-identified counterfactual events often yield information about non-identified events. We show that this approach is powerful enough to recover known sharp bounds and tight inequality constraints, and to derive novel bounds and constraints.

Learning from Demonstrations (LfD) is an active research area that addresses the problem of learning how to perform a task by observing the demonstrations provided by an expert. This approach plays an important role in many real-life learning settings, including human-to-robot interaction [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. The two popular approaches for LfD include (i) behavioral cloning, which directly mimics the expert behavior, without understanding the objective [6], and (ii) inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), which infers the reward function (i.e., the objective of the task) explaining the expert behavior [7]. In this work, we focus on the IRL approach to LfD. Typically, the IRL learner assumes that the demonstrated expert behavior is optimal with respect to some reward function, even if the reward function cannot be specified explicitly as in typical reinforcement learning (RL).