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On Optimal Generalizability in Parametric Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the parametric learning problem, where the objective of the learner is determined by a parametric loss function. Employing empirical risk minimization with possibly regularization, the inferred parameter vector will be biased toward the training samples. Such bias is measured by the cross validation procedure in practice where the data set is partitioned into a training set used for training and a validation set, which is not used in training and is left to measure the out-of-sample performance. A classical cross validation strategy is the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) where one sample is left out for validation and training is done on the rest of the samples that are presented to the learner, and this process is repeated on all of the samples. LOOCV is rarely used in practice due to the high computational complexity. In this paper, we first develop a computationally efficient approximate LOOCV (ALOOCV) and provide theoretical guarantees for its performance. Then we use ALOOCV to provide an optimization algorithm for finding the regularizer in the empirical risk minimization framework. In our numerical experiments, we illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of ALOOCV as well as our proposed framework for the optimization of the regularizer.



Parameter-Free Online Learning via Model Selection

Neural Information Processing Systems

Finally, we generalize these results by providing oracle inequalities for arbitrary non-linear classes in the online supervised learning model. These results are all derived through a unified meta-algorithm scheme using a novel "multi-scale" algorithm for prediction with expert advice based on random playout, which may be of


Why 'starving cancer' could be key to slowing disease growth, according to doctors

FOX News

Dr. Jason Fung shares on Dr. Mark Hyman's podcast how fasting may help reverse diseases like cancer by putting cells into maintenance mode instead of growth mode.


A Computer Science Professor Invented the Emoticon After a Joke Went Wrong

WIRED

In 1982, Carnegie Mellon University professor Scott Fahlman suggested using:-) for humorous comments after his colleagues took a joke about mercury seriously. On September 19, 1982, Carnegie Mellon University computer science research assistant professor Scott Fahlman posted a message to the university's bulletin board software that would later come to shape how people communicate online. His proposal: use:-) and:-( as markers to distinguish jokes from serious comments. While Fahlman describes himself as "the inventor or at least one of the inventors" of what would later be called the smiley face emoticon, the full story reveals something more interesting than a lone genius moment. The whole episode started three days earlier when computer scientist Neil Swartz posed a physics problem to colleagues on Carnegie Mellon's "bboard," which was an early online message board.


Ranking Data with Continuous Labels through Oriented Recursive Partitions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We formulate a supervised learning problem, referred to as continuous ranking, where a continuous real-valued label Y is assigned to an observable r.v. X taking its values in a feature space X and the goal is to order all possible observations x in X by means of a scoring function s: X R so that s(X) and Y tend to increase or decrease together with highest probability. This problem generalizes bi/multi-partite ranking to a certain extent and the task of finding optimal scoring functions s( x) can be naturally cast as optimization of a dedicated functional criterion, called the IROC curve here, or as maximization of the Kendall ฯ„ related to the pair (s(X),Y). From the theoretical side, we describe the optimal elements of this problem and provide statistical guarantees for empirical Kendall ฯ„ maximization under appropriate conditions for the class of scoring function candidates. We also propose a recursive statistical learning algorithm tailored to empirical IROC curve optimization and producing a piecewise constant scoring function that is fully described by an oriented binary tree. Preliminary numerical experiments highlight the difference in nature between regression and continuous ranking and provide strong empirical evidence of the performance of empirical optimizers of the criteria proposed.




Revenue Optimization with Approximate Bid Predictions Andres Munoz Medina Google Research 76 9th Ave New York, NY10011 Sergei V assilvitskii Google Research 76 9th Ave New York, NY10011

Neural Information Processing Systems

In the context of advertising auctions, finding good reserve prices is a notoriously challenging learning problem. This is due to the heterogeneity of ad opportunity types, and the non-convexity of the objective function. In this work, we show how to reduce reserve price optimization to the standard setting of prediction under squared loss, a well understood problem in the learning community. We further bound the gap between the expected bid and revenue in terms of the average loss of the predictor. This is the first result that formally relates the revenue gained to the quality of a standard machine learned model.