This paper develops a penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for automatic debiased inference on functionals of nonparametric instrumental variable estimators. We derive convergence rates for the PGMM estimator and provide conditions for root-n consistency and asymptotic normality of debiased functional estimates, covering both linear and nonlinear functionals. Monte Carlo experiments on average derivative show that the PGMM-based debiased estimator performs on par with the analytical debiased estimator that uses the known closed-form Riesz representer, achieving 90-96% coverage while the plug-in estimator falls below 5%. We apply our procedure to estimate mean own-price elasticities in a semiparametric demand model for differentiated products. Simulations confirm near-nominal coverage while the plug-in severely undercovers. Applied to IRI scanner data on carbonated beverages, debiased semiparametric estimates are approximately 20% more elastic compared to the logit benchmark, and debiasing corrections are heterogeneous across products, ranging from negligible to several times the standard error.

We analyze the one-pass stochastic gradient descent dynamics of a two-layer neural network with quadratic activations in a teacher--student framework. In the high-dimensional regime, where the input dimension $N$ and the number of samples $M$ diverge at fixed ratio $α= M/N$, and for finite hidden widths $(p,p^*)$ of the student and teacher, respectively, we study the low-dimensional ordinary differential equations that govern the evolution of the student--teacher and student--student overlap matrices. We show that overparameterization ($p>p^*$) only modestly accelerates escape from a plateau of poor generalization by modifying the prefactor of the exponential decay of the loss. We then examine how unconstrained weight norms introduce a continuous rotational symmetry that results in a nontrivial manifold of zero-loss solutions for $p>1$. From this manifold the dynamics consistently selects the closest solution to the random initialization, as enforced by a conserved quantity in the ODEs governing the evolution of the overlaps. Finally, a Hessian analysis of the population-loss landscape confirms that the plateau and the solution manifold correspond to saddles with at least one negative eigenvalue and to marginal minima in the population-loss geometry, respectively.

Cross-validation (CV) is commonly used to estimate predictive risk when independent test data are unavailable. Its validity depends on the assumption that validation tasks are sampled from the same distribution as prediction tasks encountered during deployment. In spatial prediction and other settings with structured data, this assumption is frequently violated, leading to biased estimates of deployment risk. We propose Target-Weighted CV (TWCV), an estimator of deployment risk that accounts for discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions, thus accounting for (1) covariate shift and (2) task-difficulty shift. We characterize prediction tasks by descriptors such as covariates and spatial configuration. TWCV assigns weights to validation losses such that the weighted empirical distribution of validation tasks matches the corresponding distribution over a target domain. The weights are obtained via calibration weighting, yielding an importance-weighted estimator that targets deployment risk. Since TWCV requires adequate coverage of the deployment distribution's support, we combine it with spatially buffered resampling that diversifies the task difficulty distribution. In a simulation study, conventional as well as spatial estimators exhibit substantial bias depending on sampling, whereas buffered TWCV remains approximately unbiased across scenarios. A case study in environmental pollution mapping further confirms that discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions can affect performance assessment, and that buffered TWCV better reflects the prediction task over the target domain. These results establish task distribution mismatch as a primary source of CV bias in spatial prediction and show that calibration weighting combined with a suitable validation task generator provides a viable approach to estimating predictive risk under dataset shift.

Conditional independence is central to modern statistics, but beyond special parametric families it rarely admits an exact covariance characterization. We introduce the binary expansion group intersection network (BEGIN), a distribution-free graphical representation for multivariate binary data and bit-encoded multinomial variables. For arbitrary binary random vectors and bit representations of multinomial variables, we prove that conditional independence is equivalent to a sparse linear representation of conditional expectations, to a block factorization of the corresponding interaction covariance matrix, and to block diagonality of an associated generalized Schur complement. The resulting graph is indexed by the intersection of multiplicative groups of binary interactions, yielding an analogue of Gaussian graphical modeling beyond the Gaussian setting. This viewpoint treats data bits as atoms and local BEGIN molecules as building blocks for large Markov random fields. We also show how dyadic bit representations allow BEGIN to approximate conditional independence for general random vectors under mild regularity conditions. A key technical device is the Hadamard prism, a linear map that links interaction covariances to group structure.

In this work, we investigate how to develop sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables, including sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions. Although the random variables may not be sub-Guassian, the tail probability around the origin behaves as if they were sub-Gaussian, and the tail probability decays align with the Orlicz $Ψ_α$-tail elsewhere. Specifically, for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) $\{X_i\}_{i=1}^n$ with finite Orlicz norm $\|X\|_{Ψ_α}$, our theory unveils that there is an interesting phase transition at $α= 2$ in that $\PPł(ł|\sum_{i=1}^n X_i \r| \geq t\r)$ with $t > 0$ is upper bounded by $2\expł(-C\maxł\{\frac{t^2}{n\|X\|_{Ψ_α}^2},\frac{t^α}{ n^{α-1} \|X\|_{Ψ_α}^α}\r\}\r)$ for $α\geq 2$, and by $2\expł(-C\minł\{\frac{t^2}{n\|X\|_{Ψ_α}^2},\frac{t^α}{ n^{α-1} \|X\|_{Ψ_α}^α}\r\}\r)$ for $1\leq α\leq 2$ with some positive constant $C$. In many scenarios, it is often necessary to distinguish the standard deviation from the Orlicz norm when the latter can exceed the former greatly. To accommodate this, we build a new theoretical analysis framework, and our sharp, flexible concentration inequalities involve the variance and a mixing of Orlicz $Ψ_α$-tails through the min and max functions. Our theory yields new, improved concentration inequalities even for the cases of sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions with $α= 2$ and $1$, respectively. We further demonstrate our theory on martingales, random vectors, random matrices, and covariance matrix estimation. These sharp concentration inequalities can empower more precise non-asymptotic analyses across different statistical and machine learning applications.

We study statistical estimation in a student--teacher setting, where predictions from a pre-trained teacher are used to guide a student model. A standard approach is to train the student to directly match the teacher's outputs, which we refer to as student soft matching (SM). This approach directly propagates any systematic bias or mis-specification present in the teacher, thereby degrading the student's predictions. We propose and analyze an alternative scheme, known as residual-as-teacher (RaT), in which the teacher is used to estimate residuals in the student's predictions. Our analysis shows how the student can thereby emulate a proximal gradient scheme for solving an oracle optimization problem, and this provably reduces the effect of teacher bias. For general student--teacher pairs, we establish non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for any RaT fixed point, along with convergence guarantees for the student-teacher iterative scheme. For kernel-based student--teacher pairs, we prove a sharp separation: the RaT method achieves the minimax-optimal rate, while the SM method incurs constant prediction error for any sample size. Experiments on both synthetic data and ImageNette classification under covariate shift corroborate our theoretical findings.

Causal representation learning seeks to uncover causal relationships among high-level latent variables from low-level, entangled, and noisy observations. Existing approaches often either rely on deep neural networks, which lack interpretability and formal guarantees, or impose restrictive assumptions like linearity, continuous-only observations, and strong structural priors. These limitations particularly challenge applications with a large number of discrete latent variables and mixed-type observations. To address these challenges, we propose discrete causal representation learning (DCRL), a generative framework that models a directed acyclic graph among discrete latent variables, along with a sparse bipartite graph linking latent and observed layers. This design accommodates continuous, count, and binary responses through flexible measurement models while maintaining interpretability. Under mild conditions, we prove that both the bipartite measurement graph and the latent causal graph are identifiable from the observed data distribution alone. We further propose a three-stage estimate-resample-discovery pipeline: penalized estimation of the generative model parameters, resampling of latent configurations from the fitted model, and score-based causal discovery on the resampled latents. We establish the consistency of this procedure, ensuring reliable recovery of the latent causal structure. Empirical studies on educational assessment and synthetic image data demonstrate that DCRL recovers sparse and interpretable latent causal structures.

A key capability of modern neural networks is their capacity to simultaneously learn underlying rules and memorize specific facts or exceptions. Yet, theoretical understanding of this dual capability remains limited. We introduce the Rules-and-Facts (RAF) model, a minimal solvable setting that enables precise characterization of this phenomenon by bridging two classical lines of work in the statistical physics of learning: the teacher-student framework for generalization and Gardner-style capacity analysis for memorization. In the RAF model, a fraction $1 - \varepsilon$ of training labels is generated by a structured teacher rule, while a fraction $\varepsilon$ consists of unstructured facts with random labels. We characterize when the learner can simultaneously recover the underlying rule - allowing generalization to new data - and memorize the unstructured examples. Our results quantify how overparameterization enables the simultaneous realization of these two objectives: sufficient excess capacity supports memorization, while regularization and the choice of kernel or nonlinearity control the allocation of capacity between rule learning and memorization. The RAF model provides a theoretical foundation for understanding how modern neural networks can infer structure while storing rare or non-compressible information.

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has emerged as a rapidly growing alternative framework that is particularly well suited to modern applications involving high-dimensional data and complex machine learning models. Its appeal stems from being both distribution-free -- relying mainly on symmetry assumptions such as exchangeability -- and model-agnostic, treating the learning algorithm as a black box. Even under such limited assumptions, conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, though these are typically of a marginal nature that requires careful interpretation. This paper explains the core ideas of conformal prediction and reviews selected methods. Rather than offering an exhaustive survey, it aims to provide a clear conceptual entry point and a pedagogical overview of the field.

We study learning under regime variation, where the learner, its memory state, and the evaluative conditions may evolve over time. This paper is a foundational and structural contribution: its goal is to define the core learning-theoretic objects required for such settings and to establish their first theorem-supporting consequences. The paper develops a regime-varying framework centered on admissible transport, protected-core preservation, and evaluator-aware learning evolution. It records the immediate closure consequences of admissibility, develops a structural obstruction argument for faithful fixed-ontology reduction in genuinely multi-regime settings, and introduces a protected-stability template together with explicit numerical and symbolic witnesses on controlled subclasses, including convex and deductive settings. It also establishes theorem-layer results on evaluator factorization, morphisms, composition, and partial kernel-level alignment across semantically commensurable layers. A worked two-regime example makes the admissibility certificate, protected evaluative core, and regime-variation cost explicit on a controlled subclass. The symbolic component is deliberately restricted in scope: the paper establishes a first kernel-level compatibility result together with a controlled monotonic deductive witness. The manuscript should therefore be read as introducing a structured learning-theoretic framework for regime-varying learning together with its first theorem-supporting layer, not as a complete quantitative theory of all learning systems.