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Hierarchical Count Echo State Network Models with Application to Graduate Student Enrollments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Poisson autoregressive count models have evolved into a time series staple for correlated count data. This paper proposes an alternative to Poisson autoregressions: count echo state networks. Echo state networks can be statistically analyzed in frequentist manners via optimizing penalized likelihoods, or in Bayesian manners via MCMC sampling. This paper develops Poisson echo state techniques for count data and applies them to a massive count data set containing the number of graduate students from 1,758 United States universities during the years 1972-2021 inclusive. Negative binomial models are also implemented to better handle overdispersion in the counts. Performance of the proposed models are compared via their forecasting performance as judged by several methods. In the end, a hierarchical negative binomial based echo state network is judged as the superior model.


Revisiting Applicable and Comprehensive Knowledge Tracing in Large-Scale Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is a fundamental component of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS), enabling the modeling of students' knowledge states to predict future performance. The introduction of Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT), the first deep learning-based KT (DLKT) model, has brought significant advantages in terms of applicability and comprehensiveness. However, recent DLKT models, such as Attentive Knowledge Tracing (AKT), have often prioritized predictive performance at the expense of these benefits. While deep sequential models like DKT have shown potential, they face challenges related to parallel computing, storage decision modification, and limited storage capacity. To address these limitations, we propose DKT2, a novel KT model that leverages the recently developed xLSTM architecture. DKT2 enhances input representation using the Rasch model and incorporates Item Response Theory (IRT) for interpretability, allowing for the decomposition of learned knowledge into familiar and unfamiliar knowledge. By integrating this knowledge with predicted questions, DKT2 generates comprehensive knowledge states. Extensive experiments conducted across three large-scale datasets demonstrate that DKT2 consistently outperforms 17 baseline models in various prediction tasks, underscoring its potential for real-world educational applications. This work bridges the gap between theoretical advancements and practical implementation in KT.Our code and datasets will be available at https://github.com/codebase-2025/DKT2.


A Zero-Shot LLM Framework for Automatic Assignment Grading in Higher Education

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automated grading has become an essential tool in education technology due to its ability to efficiently assess large volumes of student work, provide consistent and unbiased evaluations, and deliver immediate feedback to enhance learning. However, current systems face significant limitations, including the need for large datasets in few-shot learning methods, a lack of personalized and actionable feedback, and an overemphasis on benchmark performance rather than student experience. To address these challenges, we propose a Zero-Shot Large Language Model (LLM)-Based Automated Assignment Grading (AAG) system. This framework leverages prompt engineering to evaluate both computational and explanatory student responses without requiring additional training or fine-tuning. The AAG system delivers tailored feedback that highlights individual strengths and areas for improvement, thereby enhancing student learning outcomes. Our study demonstrates the system's effectiveness through comprehensive evaluations, including survey responses from higher education students that indicate significant improvements in motivation, understanding, and preparedness compared to traditional grading methods. The results validate the AAG system's potential to transform educational assessment by prioritizing learning experiences and providing scalable, high-quality feedback.


Active Learning for Continual Learning: Keeping the Past Alive in the Present

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continual learning (CL) enables deep neural networks to adapt to ever-changing data distributions. In practice, there may be scenarios where annotation is costly, leading to active continual learning (ACL), which performs active learning (AL) for the CL scenarios when reducing the labeling cost by selecting the most informative subset is preferable. However, conventional AL strategies are not suitable for ACL, as they focus solely on learning the new knowledge, leading to catastrophic forgetting of previously learned tasks. Therefore, ACL requires a new AL strategy that can balance the prevention of catastrophic forgetting and the ability to quickly learn new tasks. In this paper, we propose AccuACL, Accumulated informativeness-based Active Continual Learning, by the novel use of the Fisher information matrix as a criterion for sample selection, derived from a theoretical analysis of the Fisher-optimality preservation properties within the framework of ACL, while also addressing the scalability issue of Fisher information-based AL. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AccuACL significantly outperforms AL baselines across various CL algorithms, increasing the average accuracy and forgetting by 23.8% and 17.0%, respectively, in average. Continual learning (CL), a learning scenario to adapt models continuously on evolving data distributions, is essential in our dynamic world (Thrun, 1995). Numerous CL methods have been advanced with the common goal of preserving past knowledge while acquiring new knowledge across the CL tasks (Abraham and Robins, 2005; Kim et al., 2023b; Mermillod et al., 2013). While most studies in CL assume that the evolving data distributions are fully labeled, this is rarely the case in practice.


AI-driven Wireless Positioning: Fundamentals, Standards, State-of-the-art, and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wireless positioning technologies hold significant value for applications in autonomous driving, extended reality (XR), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and more. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), leveraging AI to enhance positioning accuracy and robustness has emerged as a field full of potential. Driven by the requirements and functionalities defined in the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standards, AI/machine learning (ML)-based positioning is becoming a key technology to overcome the limitations of traditional methods. This paper begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of AI and wireless positioning, covering AI models, algorithms, positioning applications, emerging wireless technologies, and the basics of positioning techniques. Subsequently, focusing on standardization progress, we provide a comprehensive review of the evolution of 3GPP positioning standards, with an emphasis on the integration of AI/ML technologies in recent and upcoming releases. Based on the AI/ML-assisted positioning and direct AI/ML positioning schemes outlined in the standards, we conduct an in-depth investigation of related research. we focus on state-of-the-art (SOTA) research in AI-based line-of-sight (LOS)/non-line-of-sight (NLOS) detection, time of arrival (TOA)/time difference of arrival (TDOA) estimation, and angle estimation techniques. For Direct AI/ML Positioning, we explore SOTA advancements in fingerprint-based positioning, knowledge-assisted AI positioning, and channel charting-based positioning. Furthermore, we introduce publicly available datasets for wireless positioning and conclude by summarizing the challenges and opportunities of AI-driven wireless positioning.


Relative Layer-Wise Relevance Propagation: a more Robust Neural Networks eXplaination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning methods are solving very successfully a plethora of tasks, but they have the disadvantage of not providing any information about their decision. Consequently, estimating the reasoning of the system provides additional information. For this, Layer-Wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) is one of the methods in eXplainable Machine Learning (XML). Its purpose is to provide contributions of any neural network output in the domain of its input. The main drawback of current methods is mainly due to division by small values. To overcome this problem, we provide a new definition called Relative LRP where the classical conservation law is satisfied up to a multiplicative factor but without divisions by small values except for Resnet skip connection. In this article, we will focus on image classification. This allows us to visualize the contributions of a pixel to the predictions of a multi-layer neural network. Pixel contributions provide a focus to further analysis on regions of potential interest. R-LRP can be applied for any dense, CNN or residual neural networks. Moreover, R-LRP doesn't need any hyperparameters to tune contrary to other LRP methods. We then compare the R-LRP method on different datasets with simple CNN, VGG16, VGG19 and Resnet50 networks.


Learning more with the same effort: how randomization improves the robustness of a robotic deep reinforcement learning agent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The industrial application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is frequently slowed down because of the inability to generate the experience required to train the models. Collecting data often involves considerable time and economic effort that is unaffordable in most cases. Fortunately, devices like robots can be trained with synthetic experience thanks to virtual environments. With this approach, the sample efficiency problems of artificial agents are mitigated, but another issue arises: the need for efficiently transferring the synthetic experience into the real world (sim-to-real). This paper analyzes the robustness of a state-of-the-art sim-to-real technique known as progressive neural networks (PNNs) and studies how adding diversity to the synthetic experience can complement it. To better understand the drivers that lead to a lack of robustness, the robotic agent is still tested in a virtual environment to ensure total control on the divergence between the simulated and real models. The results show that a PNN-like agent exhibits a substantial decrease in its robustness at the beginning of the real training phase. Randomizing certain variables during simulation-based training significantly mitigates this issue. On average, the increase in the model's accuracy is around 25% when diversity is introduced in the training process. This improvement can be translated into a decrease in the required real experience for the same final robustness performance. Notwithstanding, adding real experience to agents should still be beneficial regardless of the quality of the virtual experience fed into the agent.


The Pseudo-Dimension of Contracts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Algorithmic contract design studies scenarios where a principal incentivizes an agent to exert effort on her behalf. In this work, we focus on settings where the agent's type is drawn from an unknown distribution, and formalize an offline learning framework for learning near-optimal contracts from sample agent types. A central tool in our analysis is the notion of pseudo-dimension from statistical learning theory. Beyond its role in establishing upper bounds on the sample complexity, pseudo-dimension measures the intrinsic complexity of a class of contracts, offering a new perspective on the tradeoffs between simplicity and optimality in contract design. Our main results provide essentially optimal tradeoffs between pseudo-dimension and representation error (defined as the loss in principal's utility) with respect to linear and bounded contracts. Using these tradeoffs, we derive sample- and time-efficient learning algorithms, and demonstrate their near-optimality by providing almost matching lower bounds on the sample complexity. Conversely, for unbounded contracts, we prove an impossibility result showing that no learning algorithm exists. Finally, we extend our techniques in three important ways. First, we provide refined pseudo-dimension and sample complexity guarantees for the combinatorial actions model, revealing a novel connection between the number of critical values and sample complexity. Second, we extend our results to menus of contracts, showing that their pseudo-dimension scales linearly with the menu size. Third, we adapt our algorithms to the online learning setting, where we show that, a polynomial number of type samples suffice to learn near-optimal bounded contracts. Combined with prior work, this establishes a formal separation between expert advice and bandit feedback for this setting.


Automated Assignment Grading with Large Language Models: Insights From a Bioinformatics Course

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Providing students with individualized feedback through assignments is a cornerstone of education that supports their learning and development. Studies have shown that timely, high-quality feedback plays a critical role in improving learning outcomes. However, providing personalized feedback on a large scale in classes with large numbers of students is often impractical due to the significant time and effort required. Recent advances in natural language processing and large language models (LLMs) offer a promising solution by enabling the efficient delivery of personalized feedback. These technologies can reduce the workload of course staff while improving student satisfaction and learning outcomes. Their successful implementation, however, requires thorough evaluation and validation in real classrooms. We present the results of a practical evaluation of LLM-based graders for written assignments in the 2024/25 iteration of the Introduction to Bioinformatics course at the University of Ljubljana. Over the course of the semester, more than 100 students answered 36 text-based questions, most of which were automatically graded using LLMs. In a blind study, students received feedback from both LLMs and human teaching assistants without knowing the source, and later rated the quality of the feedback. We conducted a systematic evaluation of six commercial and open-source LLMs and compared their grading performance with human teaching assistants. Our results show that with well-designed prompts, LLMs can achieve grading accuracy and feedback quality comparable to human graders. Our results also suggest that open-source LLMs perform as well as commercial LLMs, allowing schools to implement their own grading systems while maintaining privacy.


Teacher Encoder-Student Decoder Denoising Guided Segmentation Network for Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual anomaly detection is a highly challenging task, often categorized as a one-class classification and segmentation problem. Recent studies have demonstrated that the student-teacher (S-T) framework effectively addresses this challenge. However, most S-T frameworks rely solely on pre-trained teacher networks to guide student networks in learning multi-scale similar features, overlooking the potential of the student networks to enhance learning through multi-scale feature fusion. In this study, we propose a novel model named PFADSeg, which integrates a pre-trained teacher network, a denoising student network with multi-scale feature fusion, and a guided anomaly segmentation network into a unified framework. By adopting a unique teacher-encoder and student-decoder denoising mode, the model improves the student network's ability to learn from teacher network features. Furthermore, an adaptive feature fusion mechanism is introduced to train a self-supervised segmentation network that synthesizes anomaly masks autonomously, significantly increasing detection performance. Evaluated on the MVTec AD dataset, PFADSeg achieves state-of-the-art results with an image-level AUC of 98.9%, a pixel-level mean precision of 76.4%, and an instance-level mean precision of 78.7%.