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The legal battle over whether prediction markets are a form of gambling has overshadowed something else entirely: They're already a new form of media. Every day, a newsletter from the prediction market Polymarket hits my inbox with a subject line that could easily come from any number of politics-focused newspapers or magazines. Recent entries include "Houthis Reveal New Precision Strike Capabilities," "BREAKING: Trump Unveils Green Energy Beam," and "World War I, 2.0?" These dispatches are roundups with breathless summaries of the day's top stories, linking out to corresponding Polymarket markets--yes, this thing will happen; no, it won't. As far as business news analysis goes, the newsletter is not exactly Bloomberg's, or even Emily Sundberg's --but it's recognizably a commercial editorial product, and one that plays an important role in the prediction market ecosystem.

Follow this author to personalize your feed and get instant alerts. Follow Go to your personalized feed WHY FOLLOW? Smart Alerts: Get notified about major news as it happens. Luana Lopes Lara is inherently an optimist--perhaps because Brazilians, she says, have a more positive outlook than people from other countries. That trait has served her well as chief operating officer of Kalshi, the New York-based prediction market that has boomed in recent years as people take up placing money on everything from what words the President will use in his speeches to the price of a Costco hot dog.

The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war--and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency's enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.

Look Up Back to School Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Mashable Selects Say More Trending Now Good Connection: Uplifting stories for a digital age Creator Playbook Switch Off Mashable Voices Safety Net Versus All Series Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court'monitors the situation' Prediction markets regulated as gambling platforms by individual states? Shannon Connellan is Mashable's Senior Editor, General Assignments, based in London. She has been Mashable's UK Editor (and still manages the illustrious UK team) and Australia Editor, but emotionally, she lives searching for . A Tomatometer-approved critic, Shannon writes about entertainment, tech, social good, science, culture, and Australian horror, and loves to nerd out with movie stars, filmmakers, and TV creators . SCOTUS is the focus for state regulators aimed at Kalshi.

This week on, we dig into the latest prediction market buzz, Flock's AI-powered police search tool, and how tech bros don't know how to talk about "rouge" AI agents This week, senior writer Kate Knibbs joins Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger to discuss the two incidents that have been making noise in prediction markets: George Santos getting lifetime ban from Kalshi and a Google engineer's Polymarket insider-trading case. Plus, reporters reverse-engineered Flock's AI-powered person-search tool and spoke to experts about the accuracy of such technology, and the hosts unpack the online meltdown over how to talk about "rogue" AI agents. George Santos Just Got Hit With Kalshi's First-Ever Lifetime Ban This Is Flock's AI Search Tool for Cops What We Still Don't Know About OpenAI's Hugging Face Hack Write to us at [email protected] . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . It's so nice to see you guys. Former US representative George Santos was the first person to be given a lifetime ban from Kalshi, and a Google engineer was accused of insider trading at Polymarket. We'll get into why both of these cases show that there are still plenty of blurry rules when it comes to prediction markets. This week, WIRED reporters were able to recreate Flock's AI powered search tool, the same one that has a track record of being misused by police officers. We're going to break down how it works, and whether the backlash against Flock cameras might have reached its boiling point. Do you guys remember George Santos?

Say More Look Up Switch Off Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Creator Playbook Mashable Voices Trending Now Mashable Selects Safety Net Versus Gift Ideas For Everyone On Your List In My Bag All Series Prediction markets like Kalshi violate sports betting laws, ruling says. Rebecca Ruiz is a Senior Reporter at Mashable. She frequently covers mental health, digital culture, and technology. Her areas of expertise include suicide prevention, screen use and mental health, parenting, youth well-being, and meditation and mindfulness. Rebecca's experience prior to Mashable includes working as a staff writer, reporter, and editor at NBC News Digital and as a staff writer at Forbes.

Michele Spagnuolo was arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, but the Switzerland-based engineer says he was simply gambling--activity that is beyond the reach of US commodities law. Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer arrested in May by US authorities for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, is making a new bold bet. On Wednesday, his legal team filed a motion to dismiss the charges against him. Spagnuolo isn't outright denying that he made money using internal information from Google. Instead, his legal team says that the wagers were not financial instruments subject to regulation by the United States' Commodities Exchange Act but rather good old-fashioned international betting that the US has no authority over.

From threats to the safety of poll workers to voters who can't distinguish between odds and results, prediction markets are already scrambling the political process. When Jim Allen, the elections director for Delaware County, Pennsylvania, recently ran a training session for poll workers, he began a conversation about a topic he'd never previously had to address during training: prediction markets . "There was one person who stood up, and they said, 'Well, what if we just want to make a minor bet on what turnout will be, that'll keep things interesting?' And we said: 'No, this is all bad,'" Allen, who oversees 383 precincts, recounts. As a result, Allen and the board of elections in Delaware County amended the oaths signed by people involved in elections to include "an affirmation that the workers have no direct or indirect interests in any bets, wagers, or prediction markets."

Jacob Fortinsky, the CEO and cofounder of the new prediction market Novig, says his outfit isn't like those other markets. Twenty-eight-year-old Jacob Fortinsky has been busy. "I was a groomsman at two weddings this weekend," he tells me over Zoom. Also, the sports trading company he runs, Novig, launched its prediction market last week, facilitating $18 million in trading volume on its first day. Today, Novig launches a "responsible trading framework" in its exchange rulebook, codifying its guardrails as part of its effort to be seen as a kinder, gentler prediction market player.